Last night before going to bed I was tempted to place another buy order for 50 contracts Copper May 2011 at 430. I did not do so because I did not have available margin. This was fortunate for me as Copper reached 430 at 2011-03-30, 10:20 am and continued to drop to an intra-day low of 424.03 at 2011-03-30, 11:01 am. I would not have been happy, but most importantly I would not have done anything at all, I would not have sold out my position to preserve capital, and this will be a lession I need to review now. I am breaking my own rules of trading and losing discipline is not a good trait. Even if the markets turn back into my direction it will only be because I am lucky.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 50 contracts Copper May 2011 with ACB of 437.88
Short 100000 USDJPY with ACB of 82.458
Short 1300 contracts Nikkei 225 with ACB of 9557.38
Copper May 2011 is currently at 428.70 (2011-03-30, 23:03 pm EST)
USDJPY is currently at 82.833 (2011-03-30, 23:03 pm EST)
Nikkei 225 is currently at 9697.7 (2011-03-30, 23:04 pm EST)
All three trades are losing are thus taking up my Monetary Capital as well is Mental Capital.
For Copper I entered the Long after a gap-down, looking for retracement back to the pre-gap level. This strategy I know is in direct violation of other Trader's playbook and can now be used as the reason for my loss. I imagine 125 Kg Copper Cathode sheets neatly palletized banded by aluminum bands in 2 metric ton blocks sitting on my front lawn after I take deliver of them, gathering dust for seasons to come, until China decides to buy them from me in their 13th 5-year plan 5 years from now. Hope the metal does not oxidize and turn green by then.
For USDJPY I entered the Short because I believed the aggregate effect of the weakening USD and weakening JPY would result in USD weakening more against JPY, thus for JPY to strengthen against the USD. I still believe in this Thesis and therefore Short Nikkei 225 because I believe the Nuclear Crisis is worsening, and the visible hand of intervention will eventually have to stop proping up the market. So far my margin account is not as deep as BOJ's pockets and I am losing.
Copper May 2011 is currently at 428.30 (2011-03-30, 23:27 pm EST)
USDJPY is currently at 82.837 (2011-03-30, 23:27 pm EST)
Nikkei 225 is currently at 9713.00 (2011-03-30, 23:27 pm EST) and Afternoon Session will commence trading in 3 mintues.
Let me get some Tomato soup in 3 mintues and come back to the screens.
Stay Tuned.
Jeff
(2011-03-30, 23:28 pm EST)
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
2011-03-29
My Limit Order to Sell-To-Open 1000 contracts Nikkei 225 at 9550 was triggered at 2011-03-29, 21:53 pm EST.
I pursued the spike and placed an additional Sell 300 contracts at 9582 (2011-03-29, 21:56 pm EST).
I am now Short 1300 contracts Nikkei 225 with an ACB of 9557.38
Nikkei 225 is currently at 9561.9 (2011-03-29, 22:07 pm EST) and technically stopped trading at 22:00 pm EST for their Morning Session, and will resume Afternoon Session at 11:30 pm EST. If it spikes further on opening I will consider closing out my Copper trade to free up available margin to Short Nikkei 225 another 700 contracts.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 50 contracts Copper May 2011 with ACB of 437.88
Short 100000 USDJPY with ACB of 82.458
Short 1300 contracts Nikkei 225 with ACB of 9557.38
I am itching to close out my Copper trade at a loss and Short Nikkei 225 more.
Copper May 2011 currently at 434.30 (2011-03-29, 22:12 pm EST)
USDJPY currently at 82.765 (2011-03-20, 22:12 pm EST)
Both trades are insignificant in Loss but taking my available margin.
Let me take a time-out to cool down and return back to the screens.
Stay Tuned.
Jeff
(2011-03-29, 22:16 pm EST)
I pursued the spike and placed an additional Sell 300 contracts at 9582 (2011-03-29, 21:56 pm EST).
I am now Short 1300 contracts Nikkei 225 with an ACB of 9557.38
Nikkei 225 is currently at 9561.9 (2011-03-29, 22:07 pm EST) and technically stopped trading at 22:00 pm EST for their Morning Session, and will resume Afternoon Session at 11:30 pm EST. If it spikes further on opening I will consider closing out my Copper trade to free up available margin to Short Nikkei 225 another 700 contracts.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 50 contracts Copper May 2011 with ACB of 437.88
Short 100000 USDJPY with ACB of 82.458
Short 1300 contracts Nikkei 225 with ACB of 9557.38
I am itching to close out my Copper trade at a loss and Short Nikkei 225 more.
Copper May 2011 currently at 434.30 (2011-03-29, 22:12 pm EST)
USDJPY currently at 82.765 (2011-03-20, 22:12 pm EST)
Both trades are insignificant in Loss but taking my available margin.
Let me take a time-out to cool down and return back to the screens.
Stay Tuned.
Jeff
(2011-03-29, 22:16 pm EST)
2011-03-29
Sell-To-Open 100000 USDJPY at 82.458 (2011-03-29, 18:02 pm EST)
By Shorting USDJPY, I am implying that one dollar of USD will buy less JPY, or one yen of JPY will buy more of USD. I am expecing the US dollar to weaken against the Yen, and for the Yen to strengthen against the US dollar.
My Long Copper May 2011 trade of 50 contracts opened at 437.88 is still running and currently trading at 434.03 (2011-03-29, 18:13 pm EST). This morning Copper touched 428.73 around 07:22 am EST however I was not around to enter a 2nd position, nor would I have because my 2nd buy level was 425. It is always easy to be a Monday quarter back. Being a short term trader I am constantly itching to pull the trigger on other trades and impatient. My Copper trade was opened on Sunday night and I am already very impatient to close it out at a loss to free up my margin.
I have not done so because I have not found another instrument to Long or Short, but most importantly my Thesis for higher Copper prices is still intact. I will however, set a Limit Buy Order for another 50 contracts at 430 when I go to bed tonight.
I also set a Limit Sell-To-Open 1000 contracts Nikkei 225 at 9550.
Therefore I now have the following orders;
Open: Copper
Open: USDJPY
Pending: Nikkei 225
Need to go out and buy some more fresh tomatos and make some more tomato soup for the receipe is delicious.
Stay tuned.
Jeff
(2011-03-29, 18:26 pm EST)
By Shorting USDJPY, I am implying that one dollar of USD will buy less JPY, or one yen of JPY will buy more of USD. I am expecing the US dollar to weaken against the Yen, and for the Yen to strengthen against the US dollar.
My Long Copper May 2011 trade of 50 contracts opened at 437.88 is still running and currently trading at 434.03 (2011-03-29, 18:13 pm EST). This morning Copper touched 428.73 around 07:22 am EST however I was not around to enter a 2nd position, nor would I have because my 2nd buy level was 425. It is always easy to be a Monday quarter back. Being a short term trader I am constantly itching to pull the trigger on other trades and impatient. My Copper trade was opened on Sunday night and I am already very impatient to close it out at a loss to free up my margin.
I have not done so because I have not found another instrument to Long or Short, but most importantly my Thesis for higher Copper prices is still intact. I will however, set a Limit Buy Order for another 50 contracts at 430 when I go to bed tonight.
I also set a Limit Sell-To-Open 1000 contracts Nikkei 225 at 9550.
Therefore I now have the following orders;
Open: Copper
Open: USDJPY
Pending: Nikkei 225
Need to go out and buy some more fresh tomatos and make some more tomato soup for the receipe is delicious.
Stay tuned.
Jeff
(2011-03-29, 18:26 pm EST)
Monday, March 28, 2011
2011-03-28
Buy-To-Close 1000 contracts Nikkei 225 at 9355.5 for a profit (2011-03-28, 19:56 pm EST). I wanted to free up my available margin to enter another trade, because there was not much negative news regarding Japan during today's regular trading session.
This leaves me with my Long Copper position acquired at 437.88 yesterday night. Copper May 2011 is currently at 430.8 (2011-03-28, 20:35 pm EST) and I am medium out of the money.
Wheat May 2011 is currently at 721.6 (2011-03-28, 20:36 pm EST) and Russia is extending its export restrictions to Sept 2011 to ensure they have enough supply for domestic consumption. My charts are not giving me a concensus on different time-frames and so I still fear a spike thus will not Short, yet am patiently waiting for Wheat to slowly fall to 650 range to enter my first position.
My Copper trade (currently at 431.03, 2011-03-28, 20:40 pm EST) should serve as a learning experience for me. Reviewing my Blogs I entered my Long position after a gap-down in the hopes that it would retrace entirely during the same intra-day session. I had chosen to ignore completely my knowledge that a certain fund manager while being interviewed on CNBC the day before said they would take profits on the commodity trades that have made them money for the past year. While I cannot confirm that it is indeed funds unloading their positions I have to assume that this information may be picked up by other colleagues and the effect magnified into a self-fulfilling prophecy. Based on my Daily-Chart I will add a second position if Copper falls to 425 level.
Stay tuned.
Jeff
(2011-03-28, 20:46 pm EST)
This leaves me with my Long Copper position acquired at 437.88 yesterday night. Copper May 2011 is currently at 430.8 (2011-03-28, 20:35 pm EST) and I am medium out of the money.
Wheat May 2011 is currently at 721.6 (2011-03-28, 20:36 pm EST) and Russia is extending its export restrictions to Sept 2011 to ensure they have enough supply for domestic consumption. My charts are not giving me a concensus on different time-frames and so I still fear a spike thus will not Short, yet am patiently waiting for Wheat to slowly fall to 650 range to enter my first position.
My Copper trade (currently at 431.03, 2011-03-28, 20:40 pm EST) should serve as a learning experience for me. Reviewing my Blogs I entered my Long position after a gap-down in the hopes that it would retrace entirely during the same intra-day session. I had chosen to ignore completely my knowledge that a certain fund manager while being interviewed on CNBC the day before said they would take profits on the commodity trades that have made them money for the past year. While I cannot confirm that it is indeed funds unloading their positions I have to assume that this information may be picked up by other colleagues and the effect magnified into a self-fulfilling prophecy. Based on my Daily-Chart I will add a second position if Copper falls to 425 level.
Stay tuned.
Jeff
(2011-03-28, 20:46 pm EST)
2011-03-28
The tomato soup was very nice and warm to the stomach.
Sell-To-Open Nikkei 225 1000 contracts at 9507.6 (2011-03-28, 04:24 am EST) as there is new negative forecasts on Japan's GDP impact, and more negative forcasts to domestic and export industries. In the days and weeks to come we will hear from Japan's trading partners that they are finding ways to weaken their reliance on Japan and this will greatly hit the confidence of Japan. The numbers will follow gradually in quarterly earnings.
Copper May 2011 is currently at 434.25 (2011-03-28, 04:28 am EST) and I am slightly out of the money.
Dow30 Index Futures is currently at 12258 (2011-03-28, 04:36 am EST) and is about to complete the V-Shape pattern fully retracing the high of 12400 on Feb 18th, 2011. I am not Longing or Shorting Dow30 yet for I am uncertain of the Middle East turmoil.
Crude May 2011 is currently at 104.75 (2011-03-28, 04:39 am EST) I am itching to Short but have fully committed my margin to my Long Copper and Short Nikkei 225 trades.
I shall get some rest and resume trading at 9:00 am EST. Stay Tuned.
Jeff
Sell-To-Open Nikkei 225 1000 contracts at 9507.6 (2011-03-28, 04:24 am EST) as there is new negative forecasts on Japan's GDP impact, and more negative forcasts to domestic and export industries. In the days and weeks to come we will hear from Japan's trading partners that they are finding ways to weaken their reliance on Japan and this will greatly hit the confidence of Japan. The numbers will follow gradually in quarterly earnings.
Copper May 2011 is currently at 434.25 (2011-03-28, 04:28 am EST) and I am slightly out of the money.
Dow30 Index Futures is currently at 12258 (2011-03-28, 04:36 am EST) and is about to complete the V-Shape pattern fully retracing the high of 12400 on Feb 18th, 2011. I am not Longing or Shorting Dow30 yet for I am uncertain of the Middle East turmoil.
Crude May 2011 is currently at 104.75 (2011-03-28, 04:39 am EST) I am itching to Short but have fully committed my margin to my Long Copper and Short Nikkei 225 trades.
I shall get some rest and resume trading at 9:00 am EST. Stay Tuned.
Jeff
2011-03-27
Buy-To-Open 50 contracts Copper May 2011 at 437.88 (2011-03-27, 22:54 pm EST)
Shortly before I opened my Long position I observed Copper fall from 441 to 436, I searched the news wires but could not find any new reports, and most likely the real reasons will never be clearly known. Any meaningful or made up reports will appear next morning if it is considered newsworthy at all. I suspect it is some one selling off their positions causing this drop, as last week on CNBC were fund managers indicating they would sell off part of their positions to lock in profits made during the last 12 months.
Nikkei 225 this evening when it opened for trading at 8:00 pm EST spiked momentatily to 9550 and has slowly waved down to 9418.8 this moment (2011-03-28, 00:34 am EST). JL and I spoke a few mintues ago we both think given the nuclear power plant situation the Index may touch 9100 this week, although I am still very relectant to Short as I fear government intervention. So I will actually wait for the intervention to lift the market and immediately Short that spike, at what level I don't know, but I hope to be by the screen to see it happen and react to it.
Crude May 2011 is currently trading at 105.075 (2011-03-28, 00:40 am EST) and the discussion continues to be whether the geo-political risk premium will continue to hang around. Over the weekend there was no negative news exceeding the status quo and thus if the level of anxiety remains relatively the same then Crude prices will slowly fall.
Copper May 2011 is currently trading at 435.7 (2011-03-28, 01:18 am EST) and I am slightly out of the money now.
Let me make myself some Tomato soup first, stay tuned.
Jeff
Shortly before I opened my Long position I observed Copper fall from 441 to 436, I searched the news wires but could not find any new reports, and most likely the real reasons will never be clearly known. Any meaningful or made up reports will appear next morning if it is considered newsworthy at all. I suspect it is some one selling off their positions causing this drop, as last week on CNBC were fund managers indicating they would sell off part of their positions to lock in profits made during the last 12 months.
Nikkei 225 this evening when it opened for trading at 8:00 pm EST spiked momentatily to 9550 and has slowly waved down to 9418.8 this moment (2011-03-28, 00:34 am EST). JL and I spoke a few mintues ago we both think given the nuclear power plant situation the Index may touch 9100 this week, although I am still very relectant to Short as I fear government intervention. So I will actually wait for the intervention to lift the market and immediately Short that spike, at what level I don't know, but I hope to be by the screen to see it happen and react to it.
Crude May 2011 is currently trading at 105.075 (2011-03-28, 00:40 am EST) and the discussion continues to be whether the geo-political risk premium will continue to hang around. Over the weekend there was no negative news exceeding the status quo and thus if the level of anxiety remains relatively the same then Crude prices will slowly fall.
Copper May 2011 is currently trading at 435.7 (2011-03-28, 01:18 am EST) and I am slightly out of the money now.
Let me make myself some Tomato soup first, stay tuned.
Jeff
Thursday, March 24, 2011
2011-03-24
Sell-To-Close 30 contracts Dow30 Index Futures at 12173.3 for a profit (2011-03-24, 16:08 pm EST)
Once again I am in All Cash.
Earlier in the morning and about 12 hours ago I entered the previous Long position, and the reader can refer back to my previous blog post for the details. Today's (Thurs 24th) regular trading session was uneventful or the level of anxiety in the news was status quo to previous trading sessions. Thus the lack of exoenous news allowed the Dow30 Index to float up by natural anti-gravity forces.
I was wrong on the direction of Wheat May 2011 contracts, when JL and I discussed it on March 21st. Wheat is currently trading at 739.50 (2011-03-24, 16:16 pm EST) and I was expecting it to wave back to the 687.5 level. Instead Wheat has rallied slightly since last night. Right now I am itching to open a Short position at this level, but I am saving my margin for tonight's Nikkei 225 session, and Nikkei 225 Futures are currently at 9601 (2011-03-24, 16:23 pm EST).
This evening I have a volunteer's meeting to attend, followed by dinner with friends, and so will miss trading Japan when it opens at 8:00 pm EST. Most likely I will resume trading around 11:00 pm where Japan would have ended its 1st trading session at 10:00 pm to resume 2nd trading session at 11:30 pm.
Stay Tuned.
Jeff
(2011-03-24, 16:29 om EST)
Once again I am in All Cash.
Earlier in the morning and about 12 hours ago I entered the previous Long position, and the reader can refer back to my previous blog post for the details. Today's (Thurs 24th) regular trading session was uneventful or the level of anxiety in the news was status quo to previous trading sessions. Thus the lack of exoenous news allowed the Dow30 Index to float up by natural anti-gravity forces.
I was wrong on the direction of Wheat May 2011 contracts, when JL and I discussed it on March 21st. Wheat is currently trading at 739.50 (2011-03-24, 16:16 pm EST) and I was expecting it to wave back to the 687.5 level. Instead Wheat has rallied slightly since last night. Right now I am itching to open a Short position at this level, but I am saving my margin for tonight's Nikkei 225 session, and Nikkei 225 Futures are currently at 9601 (2011-03-24, 16:23 pm EST).
This evening I have a volunteer's meeting to attend, followed by dinner with friends, and so will miss trading Japan when it opens at 8:00 pm EST. Most likely I will resume trading around 11:00 pm where Japan would have ended its 1st trading session at 10:00 pm to resume 2nd trading session at 11:30 pm.
Stay Tuned.
Jeff
(2011-03-24, 16:29 om EST)
2011-03-24
Buy-To-Open 30 contracts Dow30 Futures at 12082.5 (2011-03-24, 03:22 am EST).
Portuguese Prime Minister Jose Socrates has resigned and this brings the country one step closer to an EU-IMF bailout of 50 to 100 billion eurodollars. I should Long USD hoping for a spike in the USD but I could not decide which currency to Long the Dollar against. I considered Long USDJPY but could not bring myself to do so. So instead I pulled the trigger on the Dow Index itself.
This trade could turn around to bite me for New Home Sales were the lowest since the government began keeping data almost a half-century ago, however I have semi-strong reasons to believe the data is incorrect and should be viewed as a lagging indicator.
Dow30 Futures at 12069 (2011-03-24, 03:41 am EST) I am slightly out of the money now. London will open in 19 mintues (8:00 am GMT or 4:00 am EST) and if is an up day will be in my favour.
I will rest for a few hours and resume trading around 9:00 am EST.
Stay tuned.
Jeff
(2011-03-24, 03:47 am EST)
Portuguese Prime Minister Jose Socrates has resigned and this brings the country one step closer to an EU-IMF bailout of 50 to 100 billion eurodollars. I should Long USD hoping for a spike in the USD but I could not decide which currency to Long the Dollar against. I considered Long USDJPY but could not bring myself to do so. So instead I pulled the trigger on the Dow Index itself.
This trade could turn around to bite me for New Home Sales were the lowest since the government began keeping data almost a half-century ago, however I have semi-strong reasons to believe the data is incorrect and should be viewed as a lagging indicator.
Dow30 Futures at 12069 (2011-03-24, 03:41 am EST) I am slightly out of the money now. London will open in 19 mintues (8:00 am GMT or 4:00 am EST) and if is an up day will be in my favour.
I will rest for a few hours and resume trading around 9:00 am EST.
Stay tuned.
Jeff
(2011-03-24, 03:47 am EST)
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
2011-03-23
Sell-To-Close 50 contracts Copper May 2011 at 442.28 at a profit. (2011-03-23, 8:28 pm EST)
I am now again sitting in All Cash.
This early morning I wrote my target price is 450 but during today's trading session I noticed other indicators which changed my Thesis. Copper can continue to go up from here but it is no longer my business for I have my eyes locked onto Nikkei 225 again and seeking for an entry point to Short. (2011-03-23, 8:31 pm EST)
Stay Tuned.
Jeff
I am now again sitting in All Cash.
This early morning I wrote my target price is 450 but during today's trading session I noticed other indicators which changed my Thesis. Copper can continue to go up from here but it is no longer my business for I have my eyes locked onto Nikkei 225 again and seeking for an entry point to Short. (2011-03-23, 8:31 pm EST)
Stay Tuned.
Jeff
2011-03-23
Buy-To-Open 50 contracts Copper May 2011 at 435.55 (2011-03-23, 4:48 am EST)
CNN is reporting Syria protests ignoring crack down by security forces and calling an end to the regime, and explosions in Tripoli cause unknown. Yet US Crude May 2011 remains at 105.035 pratically unaffected for the last 24 hours.
I looked at Silver March 2011 currently 36.372 (2011-03-23, 5:04 am EST) and Gold March 2011 currently 1431.18 (2011-03-22, 5:04 am EST) and could not convince myself on the Thesis to go Long. I think it may be time for some speculators to take some off the table.
Nikkei 225 currently at 9424.3 (2011-03-23, 5:08 am EST) I am itching to Short because of more negative news during the past 24 hours and seemingly deteriorating situation in reactor 2, but I fear the visible hand of government intervention and prefer not to be caught in a nasty gap-up.
I will let my Copper trade ride and will accumulate additional 10 contracts at 420 and 410 when I would expect it to rebound. Upside is 450 where I plan to close out my position at a profit.
Stay Tuned.
Jeff
(2011-03-23, 5:14 am EST)
CNN is reporting Syria protests ignoring crack down by security forces and calling an end to the regime, and explosions in Tripoli cause unknown. Yet US Crude May 2011 remains at 105.035 pratically unaffected for the last 24 hours.
I looked at Silver March 2011 currently 36.372 (2011-03-23, 5:04 am EST) and Gold March 2011 currently 1431.18 (2011-03-22, 5:04 am EST) and could not convince myself on the Thesis to go Long. I think it may be time for some speculators to take some off the table.
Nikkei 225 currently at 9424.3 (2011-03-23, 5:08 am EST) I am itching to Short because of more negative news during the past 24 hours and seemingly deteriorating situation in reactor 2, but I fear the visible hand of government intervention and prefer not to be caught in a nasty gap-up.
I will let my Copper trade ride and will accumulate additional 10 contracts at 420 and 410 when I would expect it to rebound. Upside is 450 where I plan to close out my position at a profit.
Stay Tuned.
Jeff
(2011-03-23, 5:14 am EST)
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
2011-03-22
Just a quick update.
Yesterday I wrote;
>> My fingers are itching to pull the trigger on Crude May 2011 currently
>> at 103.235 (2011-03-21, 11:35 pm EST) to Short it but I understand
>> the Libya situation can cause over-reaction in the market and I will not
>> be happy at all to wake up tomorrow to be in the house of pain.
>> Instead I placed the following three orders;
>> Sell 10 contracts at 105
>> Sell 10 contracts at 106.5
>> Buy 5 contracts at 103
My Buy-To-Open 5 contracts US Crude May 2011 at $103 were filled last night.
This left me Long 5 contracts.
Subsequently my If-Done-Contingent-Order to Sell-To-Close 10 contracts US Crude May 2011 at $105 were filled this afternoon.
This left me Short 5 contacts and a small profit of 5 contracts for 2 dollars.
I Cancelled my additionaal Sell Order at $106.5.
I Bought-To-Close my 5 contracts at $104.95 for an insignificant gain.
This left me flat and All Cash once again.
Based on today's news in the Middle East I am not placing any bets for now, mostly because tonight I have a business meeting followed by some time off with friends so I will not be in front of my trading screen thus prefer to have no positions at all at risk.
Say tuned tomorrow.
Jeff
(2011-03-22, 5:09 pm EST)
Yesterday I wrote;
>> My fingers are itching to pull the trigger on Crude May 2011 currently
>> at 103.235 (2011-03-21, 11:35 pm EST) to Short it but I understand
>> the Libya situation can cause over-reaction in the market and I will not
>> be happy at all to wake up tomorrow to be in the house of pain.
>> Instead I placed the following three orders;
>> Sell 10 contracts at 105
>> Sell 10 contracts at 106.5
>> Buy 5 contracts at 103
My Buy-To-Open 5 contracts US Crude May 2011 at $103 were filled last night.
This left me Long 5 contracts.
Subsequently my If-Done-Contingent-Order to Sell-To-Close 10 contracts US Crude May 2011 at $105 were filled this afternoon.
This left me Short 5 contacts and a small profit of 5 contracts for 2 dollars.
I Cancelled my additionaal Sell Order at $106.5.
I Bought-To-Close my 5 contracts at $104.95 for an insignificant gain.
This left me flat and All Cash once again.
Based on today's news in the Middle East I am not placing any bets for now, mostly because tonight I have a business meeting followed by some time off with friends so I will not be in front of my trading screen thus prefer to have no positions at all at risk.
Say tuned tomorrow.
Jeff
(2011-03-22, 5:09 pm EST)
Monday, March 21, 2011
2011-03-21
Those who have been watching the news no doubt are aware of the tremendous volatility in the Nikkei 225 index for the last two weeks. Like Larry Berman who said on his TV show on BNN titled Berman's Call, I too find it hard to advice clients how to make money during this calamity that has happend to Japan. I wish the people well and pray for them.
Never the less my job as a Financial Planner dictates that I be aware of opportunities that arise from both good and bad fortune to add to the fortunes of my clients, and so I decided to start this online diary or blog to record some of my thoughts to serve as a record of my work during this tragic time.
Of course some readers may apply the ideas mentioned in this blog to their own investment portfolios, therefore I need to disclaim upfront the warning that you do so at your own risk. For if you are indeed to apply my ideas the least you should do is join my weekly meetings where SL, JL and I gather for drinks and trade together with our laptops. There you will realize I hold my position sometimes overnight, sometimes for for hours, sometimes for mintues, and to follow just one trade and not the subsequent sequence of trades will make you either a very rich man or render you in debt and homeless, and if you are debt then SL can help you in that situation. I think you get the point.
As of this moment (2011-03-21, 11:07 pm EST) the Nikkei 225 is close to intra-day high 9505 having gapped up a few hundred points from previous day, which is last Friday for yesterday Monday 20th was a public holiday, and has been hovering at this level much to my annoyance. I say I am annoyed because I was expecting a lot of volume and volatility and has been reserving my available margin to go in Long right at market open (8:00 pm EST) for at least two waves of "spike" of at least one hundred points each to reap a sizable gain. Yet that has not happened. Instead the Nikkei 225 is like a dead rattle snake in its cage, with no breath to pounce at all and this has left me very unsatisfied. So I did a Sell-To-Close all my contracts for a decent profit and am now sitting in All Cash.
Nikkei 225 is now 9515 (2011-03-21, 11:14 pm EST).
I realise now the title of this blog is "Trading Japan March 2011" and will appear so to Google's search engines forever, but since I just sold all my nikkei index futures contracts should I buy them back just to keep with the program? No! Of course not, why trade that vehicle if I am not confident, that would be foolish.
Last night JL and I revisited ZW, or wheat futures, specifically US Wheat May 11, and I am currently of the opinion that 713 is still a bit too high to go Long. However I caution I would not Short ZW at this 713 level as it might spike higher. Based on my charts I am waiting for wheat to drop to 650 and would then go Long for 10 contracts. If wheat continues to fall after I have opened my position I will continue to accumulate 10 more contracts at 625 and another 10 more contracts at 600. In this negative scenario I would have bought 30 contracts with an ACB of 625 and would be praying for market news to announce another supply shortage due to drought etc. Worse case scenario would be for ZW to continue to fall and I would be liquidated at 550. So far there does exist the possibility for ZW to fall to 550 but the probablity is very low, I recall the folks at LTCM said the same and the markets proved them wrong. Never the less that is my game plan. Upside is to capture 30 points with 30 contracts for an expected gain of 9000 and that can happen overnight. I always trade wheat overnight because it is in the gap-ups or gap-downs that I profit, never intra-session for the price movement, or intraday volatility, is too small for me.
My fingers are itching to pull the trigger on Crude May 2011 currently at 103.235 (2011-03-21, 11:35 pm EST) to Short it but I understand the Libya situation can cause over-reaction in the market and I will not be happy at all to wake up tomorrow to be in the house of pain. Instead I placed the following three orders;
Sell 10 contracts at 105
Sell 10 contracts at 106.5
Buy 5 contracts at 103
The reader may be correct that using Options and doing a Spread may be better risk management, yes you are right but I do not have that capability on my trading platform. What I do have is time to watch the movement of Crude during the week from Sunday night to Friday afternoon, for that is all I do, I look for investment opportunties for my clients and I eat my own cooking. Let me add that Oil Vix was 39.10 down 2.80 today.
So much for my first blog and if I have time and patience will blog during the day as I go in and out of positions. Kind of like Mark Zuckerberg as he blogged his way through creating face mesh in his doom room. He is one of my heros and the movie is awesome but not as exciting as the book, go buy Accidental Billionaires.
Nikkei 225 is now 9528 (2011-03-21, 11:57 pm EST) and this Ascending Wedge is very tempting, stay tuned.
Jeff
Never the less my job as a Financial Planner dictates that I be aware of opportunities that arise from both good and bad fortune to add to the fortunes of my clients, and so I decided to start this online diary or blog to record some of my thoughts to serve as a record of my work during this tragic time.
Of course some readers may apply the ideas mentioned in this blog to their own investment portfolios, therefore I need to disclaim upfront the warning that you do so at your own risk. For if you are indeed to apply my ideas the least you should do is join my weekly meetings where SL, JL and I gather for drinks and trade together with our laptops. There you will realize I hold my position sometimes overnight, sometimes for for hours, sometimes for mintues, and to follow just one trade and not the subsequent sequence of trades will make you either a very rich man or render you in debt and homeless, and if you are debt then SL can help you in that situation. I think you get the point.
As of this moment (2011-03-21, 11:07 pm EST) the Nikkei 225 is close to intra-day high 9505 having gapped up a few hundred points from previous day, which is last Friday for yesterday Monday 20th was a public holiday, and has been hovering at this level much to my annoyance. I say I am annoyed because I was expecting a lot of volume and volatility and has been reserving my available margin to go in Long right at market open (8:00 pm EST) for at least two waves of "spike" of at least one hundred points each to reap a sizable gain. Yet that has not happened. Instead the Nikkei 225 is like a dead rattle snake in its cage, with no breath to pounce at all and this has left me very unsatisfied. So I did a Sell-To-Close all my contracts for a decent profit and am now sitting in All Cash.
Nikkei 225 is now 9515 (2011-03-21, 11:14 pm EST).
I realise now the title of this blog is "Trading Japan March 2011" and will appear so to Google's search engines forever, but since I just sold all my nikkei index futures contracts should I buy them back just to keep with the program? No! Of course not, why trade that vehicle if I am not confident, that would be foolish.
Last night JL and I revisited ZW, or wheat futures, specifically US Wheat May 11, and I am currently of the opinion that 713 is still a bit too high to go Long. However I caution I would not Short ZW at this 713 level as it might spike higher. Based on my charts I am waiting for wheat to drop to 650 and would then go Long for 10 contracts. If wheat continues to fall after I have opened my position I will continue to accumulate 10 more contracts at 625 and another 10 more contracts at 600. In this negative scenario I would have bought 30 contracts with an ACB of 625 and would be praying for market news to announce another supply shortage due to drought etc. Worse case scenario would be for ZW to continue to fall and I would be liquidated at 550. So far there does exist the possibility for ZW to fall to 550 but the probablity is very low, I recall the folks at LTCM said the same and the markets proved them wrong. Never the less that is my game plan. Upside is to capture 30 points with 30 contracts for an expected gain of 9000 and that can happen overnight. I always trade wheat overnight because it is in the gap-ups or gap-downs that I profit, never intra-session for the price movement, or intraday volatility, is too small for me.
My fingers are itching to pull the trigger on Crude May 2011 currently at 103.235 (2011-03-21, 11:35 pm EST) to Short it but I understand the Libya situation can cause over-reaction in the market and I will not be happy at all to wake up tomorrow to be in the house of pain. Instead I placed the following three orders;
Sell 10 contracts at 105
Sell 10 contracts at 106.5
Buy 5 contracts at 103
The reader may be correct that using Options and doing a Spread may be better risk management, yes you are right but I do not have that capability on my trading platform. What I do have is time to watch the movement of Crude during the week from Sunday night to Friday afternoon, for that is all I do, I look for investment opportunties for my clients and I eat my own cooking. Let me add that Oil Vix was 39.10 down 2.80 today.
So much for my first blog and if I have time and patience will blog during the day as I go in and out of positions. Kind of like Mark Zuckerberg as he blogged his way through creating face mesh in his doom room. He is one of my heros and the movie is awesome but not as exciting as the book, go buy Accidental Billionaires.
Nikkei 225 is now 9528 (2011-03-21, 11:57 pm EST) and this Ascending Wedge is very tempting, stay tuned.
Jeff
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