At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 130 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 409.26
Short 300000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.98000
Short 10 contracts Wheat July 2011 with ACB of 825.00
I wrote in my last report I was not comfortable with the intra-day price action of Wheat July 2011 futures contracts and would spend the Memorial Day long weekend researching into my Thesis.
I analysed the flooding in Manitoba, soggy weather in Saskatchewan, estimates of delayed planting and acreage left unsown in North & South Dakota, Montana, Minnesota; and ultimately came up with my baseline crop yield estimate.
Article - "Russia Lifting Grain-Export Ban May Fail to Alleviate Global Crop Shortage"
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-30/russia-lifting-grain-export-ban-as-drought-floods-ruin-europe-u-s-crops.html
Article - "Russia lifts grain export ban as of July 1 - Putin orders Russian grain export ban be lifted July 1"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Russia-lifts-grain-export-ban-apf-3476425776.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=
I believe prices will go up due to delayed planting supply shortage and increased import demand from China.
Buy-To-Close 10 contracts Wheat July 2011 at 797.88 (2011-05-30, 22:15 pm EST) for a profit.
Only time will tell if my research is right or wrong, and I only care if my trades are profitable.
Copper is technically due for a pull back and I am considering lessening my position to preserve available margin. I continue to believe base industrial metal demand will sustain despite global growth concerns.
BBC HARDtalk - Jim Rogers - 17/5/2011 (Part 1/2)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVPt04ySYRE
BBC HARDtalk - Jim Rogers - 17/5/2011 (Part 2/2)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IzpRbVbwrVI&feature=related
Over the Memorial Day long weekend there were many opinions regarding the European situation and I have little data to analyse.
USDCAD weakened slightly to our advantage.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 130 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 409.26
Short 300000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.98000
Copper July 2011 is currently 415.53 (2011-05-31, 01:19 am EST)
USDCAD is currently 0.97290 (2011-05-31, 01:19 am EST)
By taking profit and closing out our Wheat position, we have much available margin combined with our first line of credit activated on 2011-05-05th (Thurs).
I am slightly nervous about what the next few days may bring and am not so eager to add to my positions.
Total equity is 178% of May 1st and a slight decrease than previous.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-05-31, 01:25 am EST)
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
Saturday, May 28, 2011
2011-05-27th (Fri)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 130 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 409.26
Short 300000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.98000
Short 10 contracts Wheat July 2011 with ACB of 825.00
Today I am puzzled by the 1-Min Candle price action of Wheat July 2011 futures contracts;
High 824.13, 2011-05-27, 04:45 am EST
Low 804.38, 2011-05-27, 06:08 am EST
High 812.13, 2011-05-27, 06:30 am EST
Low 802.13, 2011-05-27, 10:30 am EST
High 825.13, 2011-05-27, 11:27 am EST
Low 810.25, 2011-05-27, 12:54 pm EST
High 819.63, 2011-05-27, 13:36 pm EST
I have seldom seen such intra-day cycles.
It is as if the Bull and Bear are having a tug-of-war and there are strong supporters on both sides of the Long and Short trade.
My pattern recognition software alerts me this is a Bearish Symmetrical Triangle, but does not take into consideration the impact of China's worst drought in a half-century is deepening, in contrast to the wet weather in parts of the US's midwest.
I am having second thoughts about my Short Wheat position and will use the Memorial Day long-weekend to research more and find reasons to both support and dispute my own Thesis.
Regarding Copper, I believe even with China's weakened May PMI figures the economy must for now continue to grow at the expected 6% annual rate to avoid the people's unrest.
Article - "China bomber seen as champion of disenfranchised - Bomber of government buildings glorified by some in China as champion of disenfranchised."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-bomber-seen-as-champion-apf-4220563586.html;_ylt=AnphSmwLpjr3Bj_Z7WFJ.MKxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlcmpzM3ZyBHBvcwM5OARzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNjaGluYWJvbWJlcnM-?x=0
I believe the central government will continue their Chinese Stimulus Package (CSP), pockets of growth and inflation will continue to be the model of Chinese economic growth for now.
Article - "Copper gains on optimism about Chinese demand - Copper rises on hopes for strong demand from China; energy, agricultural contracts trade mixed."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Copper-gains-on-optimism-apf-336087391.html;_ylt=Ais93dFJ1MMrQ63WPU9EBx2xba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFkY2lhdWI1BHBvcwMyBHNlYwNuZXdzSHViQXJ0aWNsZUxpc3QEc2xrA2NvcHBlcmdhaW5zbw--?x=0
Our Short USDCAD trade has yet to make us very rich.
I believe I am on the right side of the trend, but this Memorial Day long weekend may bring bad news from the Eurozone and cause the EUR to fall and the USD to strengthen against us.
Article - "Dollar drops as worries about US economy persist - Worries about weakening US economic growth weighs on the dollar."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Dollar-drops-as-worries-about-apf-2642706027.html;_ylt=Au1Eowy.MqH.ga3flcfEVoGxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlOHJmb2o2BHBvcwM5NQRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNkb2xsYXJkcm9wc2E-?x=0
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 130 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 409.26
Short 300000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.98000
Short 10 contracts Wheat July 2011 with ACB of 825.00
Copper July 2011 closed at 418.13 (2011-05-28, 00:31 am EST)
USDCAD closed at 0.97648 (2011-05-28, 00:31 am EST)
Wheat July 2011 closed at 820.25 (2011-05-28, 00:31 am EST)
Prices moved moderately in today's trading session and our account equity increased modestly.
Our first line of credit activated on 2011-05-05th (Thurs) is carrying all three positions at 75% of available margin, allowing us only a 25% buffer.
As we are carrying a Futures Contract portfolio, a 25% buffer can only sustain us from margin calls slighty beyond implied volatility. That is why I am not entirely comfortable seeing intra-day cycles in the Wheat July 2011 futures contracts.
Any extrageneous events over the Memorial Day long weekend may cause prices to move against me.
Our total value-at-risk (VAR) is sill within our three standby lines of credit, and I have no current plans to access them.
Total equity is 179% of May 1st and is increasing due to the increased risk we took on.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-05-28, 00:42 am EST)
Long 130 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 409.26
Short 300000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.98000
Short 10 contracts Wheat July 2011 with ACB of 825.00
Today I am puzzled by the 1-Min Candle price action of Wheat July 2011 futures contracts;
High 824.13, 2011-05-27, 04:45 am EST
Low 804.38, 2011-05-27, 06:08 am EST
High 812.13, 2011-05-27, 06:30 am EST
Low 802.13, 2011-05-27, 10:30 am EST
High 825.13, 2011-05-27, 11:27 am EST
Low 810.25, 2011-05-27, 12:54 pm EST
High 819.63, 2011-05-27, 13:36 pm EST
I have seldom seen such intra-day cycles.
It is as if the Bull and Bear are having a tug-of-war and there are strong supporters on both sides of the Long and Short trade.
My pattern recognition software alerts me this is a Bearish Symmetrical Triangle, but does not take into consideration the impact of China's worst drought in a half-century is deepening, in contrast to the wet weather in parts of the US's midwest.
I am having second thoughts about my Short Wheat position and will use the Memorial Day long-weekend to research more and find reasons to both support and dispute my own Thesis.
Regarding Copper, I believe even with China's weakened May PMI figures the economy must for now continue to grow at the expected 6% annual rate to avoid the people's unrest.
Article - "China bomber seen as champion of disenfranchised - Bomber of government buildings glorified by some in China as champion of disenfranchised."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-bomber-seen-as-champion-apf-4220563586.html;_ylt=AnphSmwLpjr3Bj_Z7WFJ.MKxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlcmpzM3ZyBHBvcwM5OARzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNjaGluYWJvbWJlcnM-?x=0
I believe the central government will continue their Chinese Stimulus Package (CSP), pockets of growth and inflation will continue to be the model of Chinese economic growth for now.
Article - "Copper gains on optimism about Chinese demand - Copper rises on hopes for strong demand from China; energy, agricultural contracts trade mixed."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Copper-gains-on-optimism-apf-336087391.html;_ylt=Ais93dFJ1MMrQ63WPU9EBx2xba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFkY2lhdWI1BHBvcwMyBHNlYwNuZXdzSHViQXJ0aWNsZUxpc3QEc2xrA2NvcHBlcmdhaW5zbw--?x=0
Our Short USDCAD trade has yet to make us very rich.
I believe I am on the right side of the trend, but this Memorial Day long weekend may bring bad news from the Eurozone and cause the EUR to fall and the USD to strengthen against us.
Article - "Dollar drops as worries about US economy persist - Worries about weakening US economic growth weighs on the dollar."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Dollar-drops-as-worries-about-apf-2642706027.html;_ylt=Au1Eowy.MqH.ga3flcfEVoGxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlOHJmb2o2BHBvcwM5NQRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNkb2xsYXJkcm9wc2E-?x=0
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 130 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 409.26
Short 300000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.98000
Short 10 contracts Wheat July 2011 with ACB of 825.00
Copper July 2011 closed at 418.13 (2011-05-28, 00:31 am EST)
USDCAD closed at 0.97648 (2011-05-28, 00:31 am EST)
Wheat July 2011 closed at 820.25 (2011-05-28, 00:31 am EST)
Prices moved moderately in today's trading session and our account equity increased modestly.
Our first line of credit activated on 2011-05-05th (Thurs) is carrying all three positions at 75% of available margin, allowing us only a 25% buffer.
As we are carrying a Futures Contract portfolio, a 25% buffer can only sustain us from margin calls slighty beyond implied volatility. That is why I am not entirely comfortable seeing intra-day cycles in the Wheat July 2011 futures contracts.
Any extrageneous events over the Memorial Day long weekend may cause prices to move against me.
Our total value-at-risk (VAR) is sill within our three standby lines of credit, and I have no current plans to access them.
Total equity is 179% of May 1st and is increasing due to the increased risk we took on.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-05-28, 00:42 am EST)
Friday, May 27, 2011
2011-05-26th (Thurs)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 130 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 409.26
Short 300000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.98000
Today we saw see-saw action in the markets I observe.
EUR weakened against USD due to continued debt crisis concerns.
CAD weakened against USD due to a slight pull back of oil prices due to global growth concerns.
USD weakened due to revised GDP economic numbers, Treasury Prices rose, Yield fell, and Gold increased slightly in USD terms.
Copper is holding at its current level, I believe base industrial metal demand will sustain despite global growth concerns, and the USD helped it a bit today.
The impact of China's worst drought in a half-century is deepening, in contrast to the wet weather in parts of the US's midwest.
One might think that is a scenario to Long agricultural commodities, but I believe the dominant effect is the slowing of the US economic recovery, so Short is my play.
So I took a position in Wheat again.
Sell-To-Open 10 contracts Wheat July 2011 at 825.00 (2011-05-26, 11:35 am EST)
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 130 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 409.26
Short 300000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.98000
Short 10 contracts Wheat July 2011 at 825.00
Copper July 2011 is currently 413.15 (2011-05-27, 00:52 am EST)
USDCAD is currently 0.9770800 (2011-05-27, 00:53 am EST)
Wheat July 2011 is currently 818.50 (2011-05-27, 00:53 am EST)
Prices did not move much in today's trading session and our account equity increased slightly.
Our first line of credit activated on 2011-05-05th (Thurs) is carrying all three positions comfortably, although I will be concerned if any hands show before Memorial Day, which may cause prices to move against me.
Total equity is 160% of May 1st and only a slight increase today.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-05-27, 00:58 am EST)
Long 130 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 409.26
Short 300000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.98000
Today we saw see-saw action in the markets I observe.
EUR weakened against USD due to continued debt crisis concerns.
CAD weakened against USD due to a slight pull back of oil prices due to global growth concerns.
USD weakened due to revised GDP economic numbers, Treasury Prices rose, Yield fell, and Gold increased slightly in USD terms.
Copper is holding at its current level, I believe base industrial metal demand will sustain despite global growth concerns, and the USD helped it a bit today.
The impact of China's worst drought in a half-century is deepening, in contrast to the wet weather in parts of the US's midwest.
One might think that is a scenario to Long agricultural commodities, but I believe the dominant effect is the slowing of the US economic recovery, so Short is my play.
So I took a position in Wheat again.
Sell-To-Open 10 contracts Wheat July 2011 at 825.00 (2011-05-26, 11:35 am EST)
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 130 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 409.26
Short 300000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.98000
Short 10 contracts Wheat July 2011 at 825.00
Copper July 2011 is currently 413.15 (2011-05-27, 00:52 am EST)
USDCAD is currently 0.9770800 (2011-05-27, 00:53 am EST)
Wheat July 2011 is currently 818.50 (2011-05-27, 00:53 am EST)
Prices did not move much in today's trading session and our account equity increased slightly.
Our first line of credit activated on 2011-05-05th (Thurs) is carrying all three positions comfortably, although I will be concerned if any hands show before Memorial Day, which may cause prices to move against me.
Total equity is 160% of May 1st and only a slight increase today.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-05-27, 00:58 am EST)
Thursday, May 26, 2011
2011-05-25th (Wed)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following position;
Long 130 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 409.26
I was asked seriously about my views on the USD. I had written about it, and have based my commodities trades partially on the stength and weakness of the USD.
This morning after writing my 2011-05-24th (Tues) report I caught the opportunity to ride the wave.
Short 300000 USDCAD at 0.98000 (2011-05-25, 04:02 am EST).
My trade above reflects my Bearish Position on USD.
In direct contradiction to my stance is the following trade below.
There was talk that a purchase of 25000 June Call Options at $22 Strike Price of the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSE: UUP) was done by an unknown party.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/os?s=UUP&m=2011-06-17
http://www.dbfunds.db.com/USdollar/Pdfs/UUP_Fact_Sheet.pdf
This party's trade reflects their Bullish Position on USD.
This party's trade would have cost them maximum $0.17 x 25000 x 100 = USD $425,000 in Call Premiums.
The reader can decide whether this party believes in their research or not, and only time will tell which trade will be profitable.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 130 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 409.26
Short 300000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.98000
Copper July 2011 is currently 412.25 (2011-05-25, 23:56 pm EST)
USDCAD is currently 0.9772286 (2011-05-25, 23:57 pm EST)
Prices for both positions moved to my advantage in today's trading session and our account equity increased significantly.
Our first line of credit activated on 2011-05-05th (Thurs) is carrying both positions with ease, and I am curious to see if any hands will show before Memorial Day.
Total equity is 157% of May 1st and it was a good day for me today.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-05-25, 23:59 pm EST)
Long 130 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 409.26
I was asked seriously about my views on the USD. I had written about it, and have based my commodities trades partially on the stength and weakness of the USD.
This morning after writing my 2011-05-24th (Tues) report I caught the opportunity to ride the wave.
Short 300000 USDCAD at 0.98000 (2011-05-25, 04:02 am EST).
My trade above reflects my Bearish Position on USD.
In direct contradiction to my stance is the following trade below.
There was talk that a purchase of 25000 June Call Options at $22 Strike Price of the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSE: UUP) was done by an unknown party.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/os?s=UUP&m=2011-06-17
http://www.dbfunds.db.com/USdollar/Pdfs/UUP_Fact_Sheet.pdf
This party's trade reflects their Bullish Position on USD.
This party's trade would have cost them maximum $0.17 x 25000 x 100 = USD $425,000 in Call Premiums.
The reader can decide whether this party believes in their research or not, and only time will tell which trade will be profitable.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 130 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 409.26
Short 300000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.98000
Copper July 2011 is currently 412.25 (2011-05-25, 23:56 pm EST)
USDCAD is currently 0.9772286 (2011-05-25, 23:57 pm EST)
Prices for both positions moved to my advantage in today's trading session and our account equity increased significantly.
Our first line of credit activated on 2011-05-05th (Thurs) is carrying both positions with ease, and I am curious to see if any hands will show before Memorial Day.
Total equity is 157% of May 1st and it was a good day for me today.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-05-25, 23:59 pm EST)
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
2011-05-24th (Tues)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 130 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 409.26
Short 10 contracts Wheat July 2011 with ACB of 825.00
Buy-To-Close 10 contracts Wheat July 2011 at 780.25 (2011-05-24, 21:41 pm EST) for a profit.
It felt I had carried the Wheat position for ages but it was only opened last Thursday 19th.
This was a good 3-day trade and makes me feel very positive.
Currently I have the following position;
Long 130 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 409.26
Copper July 2011 is currently 404.58 (2011-05-25, 00:05 am EST)
This morning we heard on Reuters from Alastair Wilson who was chief credit officer in Moody's Investors Services Europe that a Greek default would be highly destabilizing and would have implications for the creditworthiness of issuers across Europe.
This was a restatement of common knowledge.
To me it was the reason why EUR fell and USD rose yesterday, and caused a significant drop in our portfolio value.
I am still studying the Goldman Sachs / Jeffrey Currie report, how it relates to their previous April Report, the timing, and the intended audience.
There was talk that the purchase of 50,000 Gold August to September Call Options between $1500 to $1800 Strike Price costing $50 Million in Call Premium would likely have come from a Central Bank or Sovereign Fund.
I think it is highly unlikely that any party would place an unhedged bet of $50 Million.
I will be looking for past Put buying to complete the other leg of the straddle.
I will be looking for existing Short positions that needed the Calls as portfolio insurance.
I will be looking for change in institutional holdings of GLD, and we know Soros sold his lions share (2011-05-16th (Mon)) and may have gone Long or Short subsequently.
Prices moved to my advantage in today's trading session and our account equity has recovered significantly.
With our first line of credit activated on 2011-05-05th (Thurs) I have available margin to go shopping if the opportunity presents itself, and I am curious to see if any hands will show before Memorial Day.
Total equity is 121% of May 1st.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-05-25, 01:05 am EST)
Long 130 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 409.26
Short 10 contracts Wheat July 2011 with ACB of 825.00
Buy-To-Close 10 contracts Wheat July 2011 at 780.25 (2011-05-24, 21:41 pm EST) for a profit.
It felt I had carried the Wheat position for ages but it was only opened last Thursday 19th.
This was a good 3-day trade and makes me feel very positive.
Currently I have the following position;
Long 130 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 409.26
Copper July 2011 is currently 404.58 (2011-05-25, 00:05 am EST)
This morning we heard on Reuters from Alastair Wilson who was chief credit officer in Moody's Investors Services Europe that a Greek default would be highly destabilizing and would have implications for the creditworthiness of issuers across Europe.
This was a restatement of common knowledge.
To me it was the reason why EUR fell and USD rose yesterday, and caused a significant drop in our portfolio value.
I am still studying the Goldman Sachs / Jeffrey Currie report, how it relates to their previous April Report, the timing, and the intended audience.
There was talk that the purchase of 50,000 Gold August to September Call Options between $1500 to $1800 Strike Price costing $50 Million in Call Premium would likely have come from a Central Bank or Sovereign Fund.
I think it is highly unlikely that any party would place an unhedged bet of $50 Million.
I will be looking for past Put buying to complete the other leg of the straddle.
I will be looking for existing Short positions that needed the Calls as portfolio insurance.
I will be looking for change in institutional holdings of GLD, and we know Soros sold his lions share (2011-05-16th (Mon)) and may have gone Long or Short subsequently.
Prices moved to my advantage in today's trading session and our account equity has recovered significantly.
With our first line of credit activated on 2011-05-05th (Thurs) I have available margin to go shopping if the opportunity presents itself, and I am curious to see if any hands will show before Memorial Day.
Total equity is 121% of May 1st.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-05-25, 01:05 am EST)
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
2011-05-23rd (Mon)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 110 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 410.73
Short 10 contracts Wheat July 2011 with ACB of 825.00
In today's trading session weak US economic data and expectation of Greece to restructure its debt sent the Euro falling and the USD rising.
The fear of contagion from the European Debt situation was complimented by China's worse than expected PMI figures for the month of May.
China's tightening policy is feared to choke economic development going forward which can ripple to decreased industrial demand and markets weakened on global growth concerns.
I expect Greece to repostion its debt (2011-05-18th (Wed)) in some form or way as kicking the can down the road is the least painful way out for now. There are more painful and drastic solutions proposed like disolving the EU or exiting membership by Germany but that may have a more detrimental ripple effect on the global economy that the world can take for now.
The USD is expected to bounce after QE2 ends in June. Contra the herd, I believe the US should take this opportunity to continue QE3 and even QE4 while the world still considers the USD as a relative safe haven and print as much money as it can, but I warn this is only a short-term solution that can crumble the economy more long-term.
The Debt Ceiling issue has yet to be resolved. The debate behind closed doors is not whether to raise but by how much. For if Uncle Sam does not raise the debt ceiling sufficiently high the US will find itself hitting it again very soon. The political fall out may cause voters to dissent and fire the incumbent party when they exercise their 15th Amendment at the next scheduled opportunity.
I therefore expect the USD to bounce as long as the fear from the Greek Debt situation continues, but I am long-term bearish on the USD.
Regarding Copper, I believe even with China's weakened May PMI figures the economy must for now continue to grow at the expect 6% annual rate to avoid the people's unrest and the central government will continue their Chinese Stimulus Package (CSP) even though the media is not doing a good job reporting on its progress. Pockets of growth and inflation will continue to be the model of Chinese economic growth for now.
Very long paragraphs above, and some may question my thinking.
Ultimately as a Trader only the trades matter;
Buy 10 contracts Copper July 2011 at 404.88 (2011-05-23, 01:07 am EST)
Buy 10 contracts Copper July 2011 at 397.48 (2011-05-23, 11:26 am EST)
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 130 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 409.26
Short 10 contracts Wheat July 2011 with ACB of 825.00
Copper July 2011 is currently 400.70 (2011-05-24, 01:49 am EST)
Wheat July 2011 is currently 806.63 (2011-05-24, 01:49 am EST)
Our first line of credit activated on 2011-05-05th (Thurs) is allowing me to weather today's volatility as our account equity has been chopped significantly, yet in this situation I have added to our positions and am considering adding even more until we reach our limit per our by-laws.
Total equity is 103% of May 1st and significantly lower than last Friday.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-05-24, 01:54 am EST)
Long 110 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 410.73
Short 10 contracts Wheat July 2011 with ACB of 825.00
In today's trading session weak US economic data and expectation of Greece to restructure its debt sent the Euro falling and the USD rising.
The fear of contagion from the European Debt situation was complimented by China's worse than expected PMI figures for the month of May.
China's tightening policy is feared to choke economic development going forward which can ripple to decreased industrial demand and markets weakened on global growth concerns.
I expect Greece to repostion its debt (2011-05-18th (Wed)) in some form or way as kicking the can down the road is the least painful way out for now. There are more painful and drastic solutions proposed like disolving the EU or exiting membership by Germany but that may have a more detrimental ripple effect on the global economy that the world can take for now.
The USD is expected to bounce after QE2 ends in June. Contra the herd, I believe the US should take this opportunity to continue QE3 and even QE4 while the world still considers the USD as a relative safe haven and print as much money as it can, but I warn this is only a short-term solution that can crumble the economy more long-term.
The Debt Ceiling issue has yet to be resolved. The debate behind closed doors is not whether to raise but by how much. For if Uncle Sam does not raise the debt ceiling sufficiently high the US will find itself hitting it again very soon. The political fall out may cause voters to dissent and fire the incumbent party when they exercise their 15th Amendment at the next scheduled opportunity.
I therefore expect the USD to bounce as long as the fear from the Greek Debt situation continues, but I am long-term bearish on the USD.
Regarding Copper, I believe even with China's weakened May PMI figures the economy must for now continue to grow at the expect 6% annual rate to avoid the people's unrest and the central government will continue their Chinese Stimulus Package (CSP) even though the media is not doing a good job reporting on its progress. Pockets of growth and inflation will continue to be the model of Chinese economic growth for now.
Very long paragraphs above, and some may question my thinking.
Ultimately as a Trader only the trades matter;
Buy 10 contracts Copper July 2011 at 404.88 (2011-05-23, 01:07 am EST)
Buy 10 contracts Copper July 2011 at 397.48 (2011-05-23, 11:26 am EST)
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 130 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 409.26
Short 10 contracts Wheat July 2011 with ACB of 825.00
Copper July 2011 is currently 400.70 (2011-05-24, 01:49 am EST)
Wheat July 2011 is currently 806.63 (2011-05-24, 01:49 am EST)
Our first line of credit activated on 2011-05-05th (Thurs) is allowing me to weather today's volatility as our account equity has been chopped significantly, yet in this situation I have added to our positions and am considering adding even more until we reach our limit per our by-laws.
Total equity is 103% of May 1st and significantly lower than last Friday.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-05-24, 01:54 am EST)
Saturday, May 21, 2011
2011-05-20th (Fri)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 110 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 410.73
Short 10 contracts Wheat July 2011 with ACB of 825.00
Some US economic numbers came out today and caused a scare in the markets.
The fear is that the US economy is not going to prosper or may even go down the drain, and the rest of the world will also go down the drain with it.
This also caused the USD to weaken slightly.
I understand that is an extremely simplified view of the undercurrents, and the reason I wrote that paragraph is to focus your attention to what really moved the markets today.
FEAR - Anticipation of Pain.
Pain of not able to buy all the toys and enjoy the life of luxury.
So that is why the markets went down, and only time can tell if I am right or wrong.
Those reasons affected slightly the markets I observe, and currency, and projected crop yields.
The aggregate effect is prices moved to my advantage today and we saw an increase in our account equity.
Copper July 2011 closed at 411.03 (2011-05-21, 01:27 am EST)
Wheat July 2011 closed at 806.38 (2011-05-21, 01:27 am EST)
Our first line of credit activated on 2011-05-05th (Thurs) is carrying both positions with ease, and I am considering adding to both positions.
Total equity is 136% of May 1st and it was a good day for me today.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-05-21, 01:30 am EST)
Long 110 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 410.73
Short 10 contracts Wheat July 2011 with ACB of 825.00
Some US economic numbers came out today and caused a scare in the markets.
The fear is that the US economy is not going to prosper or may even go down the drain, and the rest of the world will also go down the drain with it.
This also caused the USD to weaken slightly.
I understand that is an extremely simplified view of the undercurrents, and the reason I wrote that paragraph is to focus your attention to what really moved the markets today.
FEAR - Anticipation of Pain.
Pain of not able to buy all the toys and enjoy the life of luxury.
So that is why the markets went down, and only time can tell if I am right or wrong.
Those reasons affected slightly the markets I observe, and currency, and projected crop yields.
The aggregate effect is prices moved to my advantage today and we saw an increase in our account equity.
Copper July 2011 closed at 411.03 (2011-05-21, 01:27 am EST)
Wheat July 2011 closed at 806.38 (2011-05-21, 01:27 am EST)
Our first line of credit activated on 2011-05-05th (Thurs) is carrying both positions with ease, and I am considering adding to both positions.
Total equity is 136% of May 1st and it was a good day for me today.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-05-21, 01:30 am EST)
Thursday, May 19, 2011
2011-05-19th (Thurs)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 110 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 410.73
Today was a day of low volatility in the markets that I observe, and I feel traders are unwilling to commit to holding positions through the long weekend.
I will be spending the long weekend studying their reports.
http://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/commitmentsoftraders/index.htm
Glencore and LinkedIn IPO's did not affect the markets I observe.
I have taken an interest in Wheat again, and this time is the flooding that has caught my attention. A few months ago it was the drought that caught my attention. In this business, no news is bad news, and having news is good news.
Sell-To-Open 10 contracts Wheat July 2011 at 825.00 (2011-05-19, 04:14 am EST)
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 110 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 410.73
Short 10 contracts Wheat July 2011 with ACB of 825.00
Copper July 2011 is currently 407.40 (2011-05-19, 23:33 pm EST)
Wheat July 2011 is currently 815.13 (2011-05-19, 23:33 pm EST)
Our first line of credit activated on 2011-05-05th (Thurs) is carrying both positions with ease, and I am considering adding to both positions.
Total equity is 121% of May 1st and same as yesterday.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-05-19, 23:35 pm EST)
Long 110 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 410.73
Today was a day of low volatility in the markets that I observe, and I feel traders are unwilling to commit to holding positions through the long weekend.
I will be spending the long weekend studying their reports.
http://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/commitmentsoftraders/index.htm
Glencore and LinkedIn IPO's did not affect the markets I observe.
I have taken an interest in Wheat again, and this time is the flooding that has caught my attention. A few months ago it was the drought that caught my attention. In this business, no news is bad news, and having news is good news.
Sell-To-Open 10 contracts Wheat July 2011 at 825.00 (2011-05-19, 04:14 am EST)
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 110 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 410.73
Short 10 contracts Wheat July 2011 with ACB of 825.00
Copper July 2011 is currently 407.40 (2011-05-19, 23:33 pm EST)
Wheat July 2011 is currently 815.13 (2011-05-19, 23:33 pm EST)
Our first line of credit activated on 2011-05-05th (Thurs) is carrying both positions with ease, and I am considering adding to both positions.
Total equity is 121% of May 1st and same as yesterday.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-05-19, 23:35 pm EST)
2011-05-18th (Wed)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 110 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 410.73
Commodities were up today due to techinical reasons and the USD weakening slightly.
There was also talk of the US economy not as bad as expected although the numbers could always be restated and are already hotly debated.
Our Debt Ceiling situation is to be dealt with, and so is the European debt situation.
Repositioning of debts is one way of kicking the can down the road. So is not funding certain pension accounts. It will provide some relief to cash-flow, but not a lot. I am still long-term bearish on the USD but have recently missed trading a spike as I am still occupied on Copper and the world economic growth thesis.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 110 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 410.73
Copper July 2011 is currently 408.80 (2011-05-19, 03:05 am EST)
We are still using our first line of credit activated on 2011-05-05th (Thurs) and I am considering buying more contracts.
Total equity is 121% of May 1st.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-05-19, 03:05 am EST)
Long 110 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 410.73
Commodities were up today due to techinical reasons and the USD weakening slightly.
There was also talk of the US economy not as bad as expected although the numbers could always be restated and are already hotly debated.
Our Debt Ceiling situation is to be dealt with, and so is the European debt situation.
Repositioning of debts is one way of kicking the can down the road. So is not funding certain pension accounts. It will provide some relief to cash-flow, but not a lot. I am still long-term bearish on the USD but have recently missed trading a spike as I am still occupied on Copper and the world economic growth thesis.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 110 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 410.73
Copper July 2011 is currently 408.80 (2011-05-19, 03:05 am EST)
We are still using our first line of credit activated on 2011-05-05th (Thurs) and I am considering buying more contracts.
Total equity is 121% of May 1st.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-05-19, 03:05 am EST)
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
2011-05-17th (Tues)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 110 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 410.73
Today the USD weakened slightly against both the CAD and JPY.
With increased talk about the debt ceiling, I warn that brinksmanship is a dangerous game to play.
http://www.usdebtclock.org/index.html
Let us focus on creating our own economy, and focus on trading ideas to take advantage of this opportunity.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 110 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 410.73
I am nervous on the Daily Candle to see if it will sustain a break through the channel.
Earlier Copper broke through 405.83 (2011-05-17, 18:30 pm EST) but did not sustain for more than one 1-Min Candle.
Remember Copper hit a recent low of 384.83 (2011-05-12, 06:12 am EST) and it has run up a bit too fast for me to be fully comfortable. Yet I am not taking profit until it runs out of steam.
Copper July 2011 is currently 402.85 (2011-05-17, 22:47 pm EST)
We are still using our first line of credit activated on 2011-05-05th (Thurs) and I am considering buying more contracts.
Total equity is 103% of May 1st.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-05-17, 23:05 pm EST)
Long 110 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 410.73
Today the USD weakened slightly against both the CAD and JPY.
With increased talk about the debt ceiling, I warn that brinksmanship is a dangerous game to play.
http://www.usdebtclock.org/index.html
Let us focus on creating our own economy, and focus on trading ideas to take advantage of this opportunity.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 110 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 410.73
I am nervous on the Daily Candle to see if it will sustain a break through the channel.
Earlier Copper broke through 405.83 (2011-05-17, 18:30 pm EST) but did not sustain for more than one 1-Min Candle.
Remember Copper hit a recent low of 384.83 (2011-05-12, 06:12 am EST) and it has run up a bit too fast for me to be fully comfortable. Yet I am not taking profit until it runs out of steam.
Copper July 2011 is currently 402.85 (2011-05-17, 22:47 pm EST)
We are still using our first line of credit activated on 2011-05-05th (Thurs) and I am considering buying more contracts.
Total equity is 103% of May 1st.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-05-17, 23:05 pm EST)
Monday, May 16, 2011
2011-05-16th (Mon)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 110 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 410.73
I took last Friday off to attend a Church Conference and came back refreshed and fully recharged.
The media is full of news and speculation on how the commodities boom is over. Catchy article titles like;
Would Glencore IPO herald end of commodity boom?
http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/03/07/idINIndia-55384120110307
Billionaire Soros Dumped Most Of Gold Stake In Q1
http://woodlawnpost.com/?p=16835
China May Limit Rate Increases After Raising Reserve Ratio
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-05-13/china-may-limit-rate-increases-after-raising-reserve-ratio.html
Raising Reserve Requirements to Slow Inflation: China Shows How It's Done
http://seekingalpha.com/article/263925-raising-reserve-requirements-to-slow-inflation-china-shows-how-it-s-done
I am more concerned about how to create my own economy and thinking of trading ideas to take advantage of this opportunity. For there are signs the people are beginning to fear, therefore I am getting more and more greedy by Longing more and more Copper futures contracts.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 110 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 410.73
Copper July 2011 is currently 397.70 (2011-05-16, 19:57 pm EST)
Our first line of credit activated on 2011-05-05th (Thurs) is allowing us to hold on and I am considering buying more contracts.
Total equity is 85% of May 1st.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-05-16, 19:59 pm EST)
Long 110 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 410.73
I took last Friday off to attend a Church Conference and came back refreshed and fully recharged.
The media is full of news and speculation on how the commodities boom is over. Catchy article titles like;
Would Glencore IPO herald end of commodity boom?
http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/03/07/idINIndia-55384120110307
Billionaire Soros Dumped Most Of Gold Stake In Q1
http://woodlawnpost.com/?p=16835
China May Limit Rate Increases After Raising Reserve Ratio
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-05-13/china-may-limit-rate-increases-after-raising-reserve-ratio.html
Raising Reserve Requirements to Slow Inflation: China Shows How It's Done
http://seekingalpha.com/article/263925-raising-reserve-requirements-to-slow-inflation-china-shows-how-it-s-done
I am more concerned about how to create my own economy and thinking of trading ideas to take advantage of this opportunity. For there are signs the people are beginning to fear, therefore I am getting more and more greedy by Longing more and more Copper futures contracts.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 110 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 410.73
Copper July 2011 is currently 397.70 (2011-05-16, 19:57 pm EST)
Our first line of credit activated on 2011-05-05th (Thurs) is allowing us to hold on and I am considering buying more contracts.
Total equity is 85% of May 1st.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-05-16, 19:59 pm EST)
Friday, May 13, 2011
2011-05-13th (Fri)
Last night and this morning Google Blogger was down due to technical reasons and I was not able to report on Thursday 12th's trading activity.
http://buzz.blogger.com/2011/05/blogger-is-back.html
Today, Friday 13th, I am at a weekend Church Conference and did not trade at all.
Mark Buchanan http://markbuchanan.net/ is our guest speaker for this year, he did a wonderful job tonight talking about being fully immersed in the Holy Spirit. I look forward to his two other sessions tomorrow Saturday 14th.
Our trading account and our positions are fine.
With Copper July 2011 closed around 400.00 levels our total equity is at 90% of May 1st.
When I return from my conference on Sunday I will research more and consider adding to our position limit of 150 contracts and draw on our 2nd standby line of credit to ride the volatility.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-05-13, 23:50 pm EST)
http://buzz.blogger.com/2011/05/blogger-is-back.html
Today, Friday 13th, I am at a weekend Church Conference and did not trade at all.
Mark Buchanan http://markbuchanan.net/ is our guest speaker for this year, he did a wonderful job tonight talking about being fully immersed in the Holy Spirit. I look forward to his two other sessions tomorrow Saturday 14th.
Our trading account and our positions are fine.
With Copper July 2011 closed around 400.00 levels our total equity is at 90% of May 1st.
When I return from my conference on Sunday I will research more and consider adding to our position limit of 150 contracts and draw on our 2nd standby line of credit to ride the volatility.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-05-13, 23:50 pm EST)
Thursday, May 12, 2011
2011-05-11th (Wed)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 90 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 413.70
Commodities all got hammered in today's trading session and there were various reasons mentioned on CNBC and the news wires.
I am concerned on the effect it has had on our trading account for our equity got chopped significantly.
Our first line of credit activated on 2011-05-05th (Thurs) is allowing us to hold on and even add to our position.
Buy 10 contracts Copper July 2011 at 400.00 (2011-05-11, 03:39 am EST)
Buy 10 contracts Copper July 2011 at 394.73 (2011-05-11, 10:11 am EST)
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 110 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 410.73
Copper July 2011 is currently 397.43 (2011-05-12, 15:15 pm EST)
I was not by my screens this morning when Copper hit an intra-day low of 384.83 (2011-05-12, 06:12 am EST) and I wonder if I would have added more to my position at that level.
Total equity is 85% of May 1st.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-05-12, 15:18 pm EST)
Long 90 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 413.70
Commodities all got hammered in today's trading session and there were various reasons mentioned on CNBC and the news wires.
I am concerned on the effect it has had on our trading account for our equity got chopped significantly.
Our first line of credit activated on 2011-05-05th (Thurs) is allowing us to hold on and even add to our position.
Buy 10 contracts Copper July 2011 at 400.00 (2011-05-11, 03:39 am EST)
Buy 10 contracts Copper July 2011 at 394.73 (2011-05-11, 10:11 am EST)
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 110 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 410.73
Copper July 2011 is currently 397.43 (2011-05-12, 15:15 pm EST)
I was not by my screens this morning when Copper hit an intra-day low of 384.83 (2011-05-12, 06:12 am EST) and I wonder if I would have added more to my position at that level.
Total equity is 85% of May 1st.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-05-12, 15:18 pm EST)
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
2011-05-10th (Tues)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 60 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 418.07
I like what I am seeing on the charts and also the economic data from China, I believe the demand for base metals related to growth will continue.
Buy 20 contracts Copper July 2011 at 406.00 (2011-05-10, 04:14 am EST)
Buy 10 contracts Copper July 2011 at 402.90 (2011-05-10, 22:26 am EST)
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 90 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 413.70
Copper July 2011 is currently 405.18 (2011-05-11, 00:16 am EST)
I am still using my first line of credit activated on 2011-05-05th (Thurs) and have available margin to add to my position up to 150 contracts if required.
Total equity is 106% of May 1st.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-05-11, 00:17 am EST)
Long 60 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 418.07
I like what I am seeing on the charts and also the economic data from China, I believe the demand for base metals related to growth will continue.
Buy 20 contracts Copper July 2011 at 406.00 (2011-05-10, 04:14 am EST)
Buy 10 contracts Copper July 2011 at 402.90 (2011-05-10, 22:26 am EST)
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 90 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 413.70
Copper July 2011 is currently 405.18 (2011-05-11, 00:16 am EST)
I am still using my first line of credit activated on 2011-05-05th (Thurs) and have available margin to add to my position up to 150 contracts if required.
Total equity is 106% of May 1st.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-05-11, 00:17 am EST)
Monday, May 9, 2011
2011-05-09th (Mon)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 60 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 418.07
Long 10 contracts Wheat July 2011 with ACB of 773.50
Sell-To-Close 10 contracts Wheat July 2011 at 793.00 (2011-05-09, 19:17 pm EST) for a profit.
I felt we were right at a resistance level and could bounce off down so I closed my Long position.
If Wheat breaks above I could go back in Long again.
The recent low was 738.63 on May 6th and has almost retraced the previous move 100%.
Sell-To-Open 20 contracts Silver May 2011 at 37.84 (2011-05-09, 20:12 pm EST)
Buy-To-Close 20 contracts Silver May 2011 at 37.83 (2011-05-09, 23:19 pm EST) for an insignificant profit.
I was trading Silver based on the 1-minute chart, it dropped for 30 mintues and retracted back, so I bought back my Short and closed my position.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 60 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 418.07
Copper July 2011 is currently 405.30 (2011-05-09, 23:59 pm EST)
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-05-09, 23:59 pm EST)
Long 60 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 418.07
Long 10 contracts Wheat July 2011 with ACB of 773.50
Sell-To-Close 10 contracts Wheat July 2011 at 793.00 (2011-05-09, 19:17 pm EST) for a profit.
I felt we were right at a resistance level and could bounce off down so I closed my Long position.
If Wheat breaks above I could go back in Long again.
The recent low was 738.63 on May 6th and has almost retraced the previous move 100%.
Sell-To-Open 20 contracts Silver May 2011 at 37.84 (2011-05-09, 20:12 pm EST)
Buy-To-Close 20 contracts Silver May 2011 at 37.83 (2011-05-09, 23:19 pm EST) for an insignificant profit.
I was trading Silver based on the 1-minute chart, it dropped for 30 mintues and retracted back, so I bought back my Short and closed my position.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 60 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 418.07
Copper July 2011 is currently 405.30 (2011-05-09, 23:59 pm EST)
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-05-09, 23:59 pm EST)
Sunday, May 8, 2011
2011-05-06th (Fri)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 60 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 418.07
Long 10 contracts Wheat July 2011 with ACB of 773.50
I came very close to pulling the trigger and adding to my positions but I sensed some fear and uncertainty of what the weekend may bring in terms of unexpected news.
So I took no action.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 60 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 418.07
Long 10 contracts Wheat July 2011 with ACB of 773.50
Copper July 2011 is currently 403.60 (2011-05-08, 23:37 pm EST)
Wheat July 2011 is currently 777.33 (2011-05-08, 23:37 pm EST)
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-05-08, 23:38 pm EST)
Long 60 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 418.07
Long 10 contracts Wheat July 2011 with ACB of 773.50
I came very close to pulling the trigger and adding to my positions but I sensed some fear and uncertainty of what the weekend may bring in terms of unexpected news.
So I took no action.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 60 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 418.07
Long 10 contracts Wheat July 2011 with ACB of 773.50
Copper July 2011 is currently 403.60 (2011-05-08, 23:37 pm EST)
Wheat July 2011 is currently 777.33 (2011-05-08, 23:37 pm EST)
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-05-08, 23:38 pm EST)
Thursday, May 5, 2011
2011-05-05th (Thurs)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 40 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 424.61
Long 10 contracts Wheat July 2011 with ACB of 773.50
I got called today on my report dated 2011-05-03rd (Tues) where I saw no volatility that I could take advantage of; and the last time I reached that stage was right before a big gap-event.
Today I saw half my available margin taken from me as my account equity was reduced by one-quarter. We were in good shape since 3rd (Tues) and at present moment total value-at-risk (VAR) is equal to the amount of our three stand-by lines of credit.
Buy 10 contracts Copper July 2011 at 410.00 (2011-05-05, 03:34 am EST)
Buy 10 contracts Copper July 2011 at 400.00 (2011-05-05, 10:48 am EST)
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 60 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 418.07
Long 10 contracts Wheat July 2011 with ACB of 773.50
Copper July 2011 is currently 402.40 (2011-05-05, 22:16 pm EST)
Wheat July 2011 is currently 754.13 (2011-05-05, 22:16 pm EST)
I have activated my first line of credit to bring my available margin back to 3rd (Tues) levels and this means I will be shopping tomorrow 6th (Fri).
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-05-05, 22:17 pm EST)
Long 40 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 424.61
Long 10 contracts Wheat July 2011 with ACB of 773.50
I got called today on my report dated 2011-05-03rd (Tues) where I saw no volatility that I could take advantage of; and the last time I reached that stage was right before a big gap-event.
Today I saw half my available margin taken from me as my account equity was reduced by one-quarter. We were in good shape since 3rd (Tues) and at present moment total value-at-risk (VAR) is equal to the amount of our three stand-by lines of credit.
Buy 10 contracts Copper July 2011 at 410.00 (2011-05-05, 03:34 am EST)
Buy 10 contracts Copper July 2011 at 400.00 (2011-05-05, 10:48 am EST)
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 60 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 418.07
Long 10 contracts Wheat July 2011 with ACB of 773.50
Copper July 2011 is currently 402.40 (2011-05-05, 22:16 pm EST)
Wheat July 2011 is currently 754.13 (2011-05-05, 22:16 pm EST)
I have activated my first line of credit to bring my available margin back to 3rd (Tues) levels and this means I will be shopping tomorrow 6th (Fri).
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-05-05, 22:17 pm EST)
2011-05-04th (Wed)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 40 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 424.61
Wheat is showing signs of a possible rebound after a week of decline, although the indicators have not lined up yet I am taking an initial small position to capture a possible rebound.
Buy-To-Open 10 contracts Wheat July 2011at 773.50 (2011-05-04, 11:43 am EST)
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 40 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 424.61
Long 10 contracts Wheat July 2011 with ACB of 773.50
Copper July 2011 is currently at 412.50 (2011-05-05, 01:51 am EST)
Wheat July 2011 is currently at 774.25 (2011-05-05, 01:51 am EST)
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-05-05, 01:53 am EST)
Long 40 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 424.61
Wheat is showing signs of a possible rebound after a week of decline, although the indicators have not lined up yet I am taking an initial small position to capture a possible rebound.
Buy-To-Open 10 contracts Wheat July 2011at 773.50 (2011-05-04, 11:43 am EST)
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 40 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 424.61
Long 10 contracts Wheat July 2011 with ACB of 773.50
Copper July 2011 is currently at 412.50 (2011-05-05, 01:51 am EST)
Wheat July 2011 is currently at 774.25 (2011-05-05, 01:51 am EST)
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-05-05, 01:53 am EST)
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
2011-05-03rd (Tues)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 40 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 424.61
In today's trading session there was no volatility that I could take advantage of.
Therefore I entered into no new positions.
There are several securities I am monitoring but I consider them to be fairly priced at this point with no clear up or down trend.
The last time I reached this stage it was right before a big gap-event, and I am curious what tomorrow will bring.
Apart from my Copper position I am sitting on lots of available margin and am standing by ready to pile on and pile on.
Copper July 2011 is currently at 418.20 (2011-05-04, 02:59 am EST)
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-05-04, 03:00 am EST)
Long 40 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 424.61
In today's trading session there was no volatility that I could take advantage of.
Therefore I entered into no new positions.
There are several securities I am monitoring but I consider them to be fairly priced at this point with no clear up or down trend.
The last time I reached this stage it was right before a big gap-event, and I am curious what tomorrow will bring.
Apart from my Copper position I am sitting on lots of available margin and am standing by ready to pile on and pile on.
Copper July 2011 is currently at 418.20 (2011-05-04, 02:59 am EST)
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-05-04, 03:00 am EST)
Tuesday, May 3, 2011
2011-05-02nd (Mon)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 40 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 424.61
Long 50 contracts Silver May 2011 with ACB of 44.01
I was engaged in client meetings for the morning and early afternoon.
When I returned to the screens I found out Silver had peaked intra-day to 47.285 (2011-05-02, 11:22 am EST) and dropped back to around 46.
I felt angry, frustrated, and greedy.
I searched for indications for a rebound but none of my time-frames gave me that conclusion even if I forced myself.
I was too scared to turn my Long trade into a Short trade immediately.
I finally closed out my Silver position;
Sell 30 contracts Silver May 2011 at 45.005 (2011-05-02, 15:22 pm EST) for a profit.
Sell-To-Close 20 contacts Silver May 2011 at 45.020 (2011-05-02, 15:23 pm EST) for a profit.
I am not angry at myself for walking away from the screens with positions open, for I often have to do that, and sleep as well.
I am angry at myself for when I came back to the screens and was confronted with a scenario contrary to my Thesis I hesitated for 30-minutes before making a Trade Decision, and in that time Silver dropped from 46 to 45.
Next time shoot first and then ask questions. Capital Preservation is the Key.
Although I made good money within 24-hours on my Silver trade above I was not happy with the execution of the exiting trades for it could have been much cleaner.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 40 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 424.61
Copper July 2011 is currently at 421.03 (2011-05-03, 03:04 am EST)
USDJPY is currently 81.084 (2011-05-03, 03:08 am EST) and hit my preset entry of 81 earlier but I cancelled that trade because I believe USD can weaken more to 80 although I am not placing any limit orders to capture it.
If USDJPY rebounds before I can get Long then too bad for me I am happy to miss this round and wait for the next.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-05-03, 03:10 am EST)
Long 40 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 424.61
Long 50 contracts Silver May 2011 with ACB of 44.01
I was engaged in client meetings for the morning and early afternoon.
When I returned to the screens I found out Silver had peaked intra-day to 47.285 (2011-05-02, 11:22 am EST) and dropped back to around 46.
I felt angry, frustrated, and greedy.
I searched for indications for a rebound but none of my time-frames gave me that conclusion even if I forced myself.
I was too scared to turn my Long trade into a Short trade immediately.
I finally closed out my Silver position;
Sell 30 contracts Silver May 2011 at 45.005 (2011-05-02, 15:22 pm EST) for a profit.
Sell-To-Close 20 contacts Silver May 2011 at 45.020 (2011-05-02, 15:23 pm EST) for a profit.
I am not angry at myself for walking away from the screens with positions open, for I often have to do that, and sleep as well.
I am angry at myself for when I came back to the screens and was confronted with a scenario contrary to my Thesis I hesitated for 30-minutes before making a Trade Decision, and in that time Silver dropped from 46 to 45.
Next time shoot first and then ask questions. Capital Preservation is the Key.
Although I made good money within 24-hours on my Silver trade above I was not happy with the execution of the exiting trades for it could have been much cleaner.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 40 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 424.61
Copper July 2011 is currently at 421.03 (2011-05-03, 03:04 am EST)
USDJPY is currently 81.084 (2011-05-03, 03:08 am EST) and hit my preset entry of 81 earlier but I cancelled that trade because I believe USD can weaken more to 80 although I am not placing any limit orders to capture it.
If USDJPY rebounds before I can get Long then too bad for me I am happy to miss this round and wait for the next.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-05-03, 03:10 am EST)
Monday, May 2, 2011
2011-05-01st (Sunday)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 40 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 424.61
Buy-To-Open 30 contracts Silver May 2011 at 43.48 (2011-05-01, 19:01 pm EST)
Buy 20 contracts Silver May 2011 at 44.80 (2011-05-02, 02:12 am EST)
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 40 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 424.61
Long 50 contracts Silver May 2011 with ACB of 44.01
Copper July 2011 is currently 412.93 (2011-05-02, 02:29 am EST)
Silver May 2011 is currently 44.85 (2011-05-02, 02:29 am EST)
Today is a day of rejoice for the American People as the country celebrates Victory over terror.
This news will be positive to the markets when they open even though I am not seeing significant strengthening of the USD at this hour.
CNN is reporting the Department of Homeland Security anticipates threats of retaliation which I feel is just a precautionary measure and I do not anticipate any retaliation at all, for it is clear the US has demonstrated its superior strength and resolve.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-05-02, 02:37 am EST)
Long 40 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 424.61
Buy-To-Open 30 contracts Silver May 2011 at 43.48 (2011-05-01, 19:01 pm EST)
Buy 20 contracts Silver May 2011 at 44.80 (2011-05-02, 02:12 am EST)
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 40 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 424.61
Long 50 contracts Silver May 2011 with ACB of 44.01
Copper July 2011 is currently 412.93 (2011-05-02, 02:29 am EST)
Silver May 2011 is currently 44.85 (2011-05-02, 02:29 am EST)
Today is a day of rejoice for the American People as the country celebrates Victory over terror.
This news will be positive to the markets when they open even though I am not seeing significant strengthening of the USD at this hour.
CNN is reporting the Department of Homeland Security anticipates threats of retaliation which I feel is just a precautionary measure and I do not anticipate any retaliation at all, for it is clear the US has demonstrated its superior strength and resolve.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-05-02, 02:37 am EST)
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