2011-05-30th (Mon)

At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 130 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 409.26
Short 300000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.98000
Short 10 contracts Wheat July 2011 with ACB of 825.00

I wrote in my last report I was not comfortable with the intra-day price action of Wheat July 2011 futures contracts and would spend the Memorial Day long weekend researching into my Thesis.

I analysed the flooding in Manitoba, soggy weather in Saskatchewan, estimates of delayed planting and acreage left unsown in North & South Dakota, Montana, Minnesota; and ultimately came up with my baseline crop yield estimate.

Article - "Russia Lifting Grain-Export Ban May Fail to Alleviate Global Crop Shortage"
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-30/russia-lifting-grain-export-ban-as-drought-floods-ruin-europe-u-s-crops.html

Article - "Russia lifts grain export ban as of July 1 - Putin orders Russian grain export ban be lifted July 1"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Russia-lifts-grain-export-ban-apf-3476425776.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=

I believe prices will go up due to delayed planting supply shortage and increased import demand from China.

Buy-To-Close 10 contracts Wheat July 2011 at 797.88 (2011-05-30, 22:15 pm EST) for a profit.

Only time will tell if my research is right or wrong, and I only care if my trades are profitable.

Copper is technically due for a pull back and I am considering lessening my position to preserve available margin.  I continue to believe base industrial metal demand will sustain despite global growth concerns.

BBC HARDtalk - Jim Rogers - 17/5/2011 (Part 1/2)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVPt04ySYRE

BBC HARDtalk - Jim Rogers - 17/5/2011 (Part 2/2)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IzpRbVbwrVI&feature=related

Over the Memorial Day long weekend there were many opinions regarding the European situation and I have little data to analyse.

USDCAD weakened slightly to our advantage.

Currently I have the following positions;
Long 130 contracts Copper July 2011 with ACB of 409.26
Short 300000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.98000

Copper July 2011 is currently 415.53 (2011-05-31, 01:19 am EST)
USDCAD is currently 0.97290 (2011-05-31, 01:19 am EST)

By taking profit and closing out our Wheat position, we have much available margin combined with our first line of credit activated on 2011-05-05th (Thurs).

I am slightly nervous about what the next few days may bring and am not so eager to add to my positions.

Total equity is 178% of May 1st and a slight decrease than previous.

Stay Tuned,

Jeff
(2011-05-31, 01:25 am EST)