2011-06-16th (Thurs)

At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 25 contracts US Crude July 2011 with ACB of 98.2468
Long 35 contracts Wheat July 2011 with ACB of 727.81

Yesterday the Canucks lost Game 7, but it was good to see them in the finals.

In today's trading session the focus was on Greece and RIMM stock.

Regarding my Long 25 contracts US Crude July 2011 with ACB of 98.2468 position;

Some economists fear that a Greek default would trigger financial chaos like the Sept. 2008 collapse of the U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers.

The fear is that a Greek default on its debt could seriously impact other European nations with debt problems, like Spain, Portugal and Ireland.

Europe consumes about 18% of the world's oil, and oil demand would likely drop if Europe's economy stalls.

Oil does seem it is heading into a Decreased Demand scenario.

WTI US Crude July 2011 prices held their ground today.  I am seeing insignificant positive-roll-yield so I will let my contracts automatically roll-forward to US Crude Aug 2011.

Regarding my Long 35 contracts Wheat July 2011 with ACB of 727.81 postion;

Wheat production in India, the world’s second-biggest grower, may advance to a record for a fourth year, potentially spurring the government to ease exports curbs and halting a rally in global prices.

According to P.K. Basu, Agriculture Secretary - output may climb 6.4% to 86 million metric tons in the year ending June 30 from 80.8 million metric tons a year earlier.  This estimate is a 2% increase over the farm ministry’s April 6 estimate of 84.3 million metric tons.

Russia is planning to resume wheat exports on July 1st, while Sergei Ignatiev, head of the Russian central bank, has called for export taxes to limit overseas sales.

Officials say the country’s grain production is likely to rebound to 85-90 million metric tons this year, up from just 61 million metric tons in 2010.

A harvest of this magnitude would allow for exports of 15 million metric tons of grain in the 2011-2012 crop year, triple the level of the last season.

Wheat does seem it is heading into an Increased Supply scenario.

Wheat July 2011 prices fell for a second day much to my chagrin.  I am seeing significant positive-roll-yield so I will let my contracts automatically roll-forward to Wheat Aug 2011.

Currently I have the following positions;
Long 25 contracts US Crude July 2011 with ACB of 98.2468
Long 35 contracts Wheat July 2011 with ACB of 727.81

US Crude July 2011 is currently 94.825 (2011-06-16, 22:53 pm EST)
Wheat July 2011 is currently 666.13 (2011-06-16, 22:53 pm EST)

Today was a painful day to see our account equity chopped in half, we re-activated our first of three lines-of-credit to maintain our positions.

Total equity is 48% of June 1st, and a significant decrease from previous.  We gave back all the gains we made last month.

Stay Tuned,

Jeff
(2011-06-16, 22:55 pm EST)