At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
In today's trading session US Markets continued to fall due to debt-ceiling talks fears and bad GDP numbers.
Article - "National Income and Product Accounts, Gross Domestic Product: Second Quarter 2011 (Advance Estimate), Revised Estimates: 2003 through First Quarter 2011"
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdphighlights.pdf
Traders sold short-term and bought long-term treasuries, bought gold, raised cash.
I am currently watching the debate on Capital Hill as House Republicans attempt to pass the debt legislation proposed by Speaker John Boehner.
JB's legislation has pros and cons, and more negatives in my humble opinion. However, it may be the best idea we have on the table so far to kick the can down the road, and kick the can down the road we must.
Article - "Eurozone inflation unexpectedly falls to 2.5 pct - Eurozone inflation down unexpectedly to 2.5 pct, lowering chance of rate hike in coming months"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Eurozone-inflation-apf-3541779064.html;_ylt=AthPDlyG8Snt7yBjLNyvInmxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlbG1kM211BHBvcwMxNARzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNldXJvem9uZWluZmw-?x=0
Article - "JPMorgan to exit tax lien business - JPMorgan to exit tax lien business it took on with acquisition of Bear Stearns"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/JPMorgan-to-exit-tax-lien-apf-3634708072.html;_ylt=AjVCW1f_3dL0RgnOIznpb3axba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlazU2NnZjBHBvcwM2MwRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNqcG1vcmdhbnRvZXg-?x=0
Article - "Dry streak becoming worrisome for Indiana farmers - Weeks of hot, dry weather across Indiana has farmer becoming worried about success of crops"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Dry-streak-becoming-worrisome-apf-1089405524.html;_ylt=Aknzg8OxMBnXH.IgxfgvAg.xba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlNjg0amJ1BHBvcwM1OQRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNkcnlzdHJlYWtiZWM-?x=0
We did some day-trading today as follows;
Buy-To-Open 25 contracts Dow 30 Index at 12179.10 (2011-07-29, 14:21 pm EST)
Stop Sell-To-Close 25 contracts Dow 30 Index at 12187.00 (2011-07-29, 14:50 pm EST) for an insignificant profit.
Sell-To-Open 45 contracts Dow 30 Index at 12188.80 (2011-07-29, 15:12 pm EST)
Stop Buy-To-Close 45 contracts Dow 30 Index at 12160.80 (2011-07-29, 15:55 pm EST) for a small profit.
My Stop Order for the 25 contract position performed well to alert me of a point-of-inflection, and subsequently allowed me to trade the trend reversal.
My Stop Order for the 45 contract position was set at minimum-acceptable-gain level.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
USDJPY closed at 76.747 (2011-07-29, 17:00 pm EST)
USDCAD closed at 0.95515 (2011-07-29, 17:00 pm EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 1% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-29, 18:35 pm EST)
Friday, July 29, 2011
2011-07-28th (Thurs)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
Short 50,000 EURUSD with ACB of 1.45223
In today's trading session US markets initially rallied but lost steam at the end.
Article - "Republicans put off vote on debt limit - Where are the votes? GOP puts off vote on debt bill as leaders fail to find needed support"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Republicans-put-off-vote-on-apf-3590202842.html;_ylt=AqmeIHOqKBXXHySB1xl6bQGxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFkYjcwamRvBHBvcwMxBHNlYwNuZXdzSHViQXJ0aWNsZUxpc3QEc2xrA3JlcHVibGljYW5zcA--?x=0
The one thing we know for certain is that there is uncertainly ahead, and it is the opportunity of a lifetime.
Article - "What Happens If Greece Defaults?"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43425042?slide=1
Article - "What Happens If the US Is Downgraded?"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43909706?slide=1
Article - "Moody’s Blues: Implications of a U.S. Downgrade"
http://www.alterforex.com/moodys-blues-implications-of-a-u-s-downgrade/
We did some day-trading today as follows;
Sell 150,000 EURUSD at 1.43596 (2011-07-28, 03:46 am EST)
Buy-To-Open 25 contracts Dow 30 Index at 12338.80 (2011-07-28, 13:48 pm EST)
Stop Sell-To-Close 25 contracts Dow 30 Index at 12340.00 (2011-07-28, 13:54 pm EST) for an insignificant profit.
Sell-To-Open 25 contracts Dow 30 Index at 12305.60 (2011-07-28, 14:11 pm EST)
Stop Buy-To-Close 25 contracts Dow 30 Index at 12303.00 (2011-07-28, 15:06 pm EST) for an insignificant profit.
Stop Buy-To-Close 200,000 EURUSD at 1.43318 (2011-07-28, 16:51 pm EST) for a small profit.
My Stop Orders for the Dow 30 Index trades were too tight and we missed out on profits.
My Stop Oders for EURUSD were reasonable but could be wider for currency positions.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
USDJPY is currently at 77.512 (2011-07-29, 00:09 am EST)
USDCAD is currently at 0.9505971 (2011-07-29, 00:09 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 1% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-29, 00:09 am EST)
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
Short 50,000 EURUSD with ACB of 1.45223
In today's trading session US markets initially rallied but lost steam at the end.
Article - "Republicans put off vote on debt limit - Where are the votes? GOP puts off vote on debt bill as leaders fail to find needed support"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Republicans-put-off-vote-on-apf-3590202842.html;_ylt=AqmeIHOqKBXXHySB1xl6bQGxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFkYjcwamRvBHBvcwMxBHNlYwNuZXdzSHViQXJ0aWNsZUxpc3QEc2xrA3JlcHVibGljYW5zcA--?x=0
The one thing we know for certain is that there is uncertainly ahead, and it is the opportunity of a lifetime.
Article - "What Happens If Greece Defaults?"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43425042?slide=1
Article - "What Happens If the US Is Downgraded?"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43909706?slide=1
Article - "Moody’s Blues: Implications of a U.S. Downgrade"
http://www.alterforex.com/moodys-blues-implications-of-a-u-s-downgrade/
We did some day-trading today as follows;
Sell 150,000 EURUSD at 1.43596 (2011-07-28, 03:46 am EST)
Buy-To-Open 25 contracts Dow 30 Index at 12338.80 (2011-07-28, 13:48 pm EST)
Stop Sell-To-Close 25 contracts Dow 30 Index at 12340.00 (2011-07-28, 13:54 pm EST) for an insignificant profit.
Sell-To-Open 25 contracts Dow 30 Index at 12305.60 (2011-07-28, 14:11 pm EST)
Stop Buy-To-Close 25 contracts Dow 30 Index at 12303.00 (2011-07-28, 15:06 pm EST) for an insignificant profit.
Stop Buy-To-Close 200,000 EURUSD at 1.43318 (2011-07-28, 16:51 pm EST) for a small profit.
My Stop Orders for the Dow 30 Index trades were too tight and we missed out on profits.
My Stop Oders for EURUSD were reasonable but could be wider for currency positions.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
USDJPY is currently at 77.512 (2011-07-29, 00:09 am EST)
USDCAD is currently at 0.9505971 (2011-07-29, 00:09 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 1% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-29, 00:09 am EST)
Thursday, July 28, 2011
2011-07-27th (Wed)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
In today's trading session US markets fell sharply due to a larger than expected decrease in June Durable Goods orders, and S&P also cut Greece's Credit Rating from CCC to CC with a negative outlook.
Article - "Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders June 2011"
http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf
Article - "Greece suffers new credit downgrade - Standard and Poor's cuts Greece's credit rating by 2 notches to CC"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Greece-suffers-new-credit-apf-1601402412.html;_ylt=AvjL7rb0fTU4h3EpUXLqEsexba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlMmhhM3M3BHBvcwM1NQRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNncmVlY2VzdWZmZXI-?x=0
The daily theatrics of the US Debt Ceiling talks continue, and we can expect markets to continue flip-flopping on each piece of news.
Market technicians are talking about critical market index support levels as markets continue to price in a possible US credit downgrade.
Article - "S&P Stays Mum on Rating for U.S."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903635604576472533411194022.html?ru=yahoo&mod=yahoo_hs
All this is adding to the negative sentiment, and I wonder if this is setting up for the final straw that breaks the camel's back or a big reversal of fortunes.
Ultimately as trader only the trades matter.
We added to our position a bias that the EUR will weaken against the USD as the more uglier contestant in a beauty contest.
Sell-To-Open 50,000 EURUSD at 1.45223 (2011-07-27, 01:21 am EST)
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
Short 50,000 EURUSD with ACB of 1.45223
USDJPY is currently at 77.758 (2011-07-28, 02:01 am EST)
USDCAD is currently at 0.94845 (2011-07-28, 02:01 am EST)
EURUSD is currently at 1.43716 (2011-07-28, 02:01 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 0% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-28, 02:01 am EST)
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
In today's trading session US markets fell sharply due to a larger than expected decrease in June Durable Goods orders, and S&P also cut Greece's Credit Rating from CCC to CC with a negative outlook.
Article - "Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders June 2011"
http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf
Article - "Greece suffers new credit downgrade - Standard and Poor's cuts Greece's credit rating by 2 notches to CC"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Greece-suffers-new-credit-apf-1601402412.html;_ylt=AvjL7rb0fTU4h3EpUXLqEsexba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlMmhhM3M3BHBvcwM1NQRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNncmVlY2VzdWZmZXI-?x=0
The daily theatrics of the US Debt Ceiling talks continue, and we can expect markets to continue flip-flopping on each piece of news.
Market technicians are talking about critical market index support levels as markets continue to price in a possible US credit downgrade.
Article - "S&P Stays Mum on Rating for U.S."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903635604576472533411194022.html?ru=yahoo&mod=yahoo_hs
All this is adding to the negative sentiment, and I wonder if this is setting up for the final straw that breaks the camel's back or a big reversal of fortunes.
Ultimately as trader only the trades matter.
We added to our position a bias that the EUR will weaken against the USD as the more uglier contestant in a beauty contest.
Sell-To-Open 50,000 EURUSD at 1.45223 (2011-07-27, 01:21 am EST)
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
Short 50,000 EURUSD with ACB of 1.45223
USDJPY is currently at 77.758 (2011-07-28, 02:01 am EST)
USDCAD is currently at 0.94845 (2011-07-28, 02:01 am EST)
EURUSD is currently at 1.43716 (2011-07-28, 02:01 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 0% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-28, 02:01 am EST)
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
2011-07-26th (Tues)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
In today's trading session US markets continued to fall due to worse than expected housing data and the impasse of its debt ceiling talks.
Article - "U.S. Housing Prices Rise Slightly, but Remain Weak"
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/27/business/economy/home-prices-ticked-up-in-may.html
Republican John Andrew Boehner continues to battle Democratic President Barack Hussein Obama II in political jousting over the details of the debt deal.
Article - "Boehner delays vote on his debt-ceiling measure - Boehner delays debt measure vote after estimate finds it would cut spending less than thought"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Boehner-delays-vote-on-his-apf-2084906714.html;_ylt=AmmLdjS8mCGLLyVK8MkdP22xba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFkN3RiYzRwBHBvcwMyBHNlYwNuZXdzSHViQXJ0aWNsZUxpc3QEc2xrA2JvZWhuZXJkZWxheQ--?x=0
There is talk that the Credit Rating for the United States of America will be down graded if a satisfactory resolution and a big enough raise of the debt ceiling is not found. This is very similar to the Eurozone situation, there are differences, but there are similarities.
Article - "DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY Debt Limit: Myth v. Fact"
http://www.treasury.gov/initiatives/Documents/Debt%20Limit%20Myth%20v%20Fact%20FINAL.pdf
Article - "Deal or no deal? US downgrade looking likely - Market analysts are beginning to think the US will avoid a default, but lose its AAA rating"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Deal-or-no-deal-US-downgrade-apf-3433492877.html;_ylt=ArFncQ7K6Q.LCyOo319hdpuxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlNTcwc24xBHBvcwM5OQRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNkZWFsb3Jub2RlYWw-?x=0
Today (Tues 07/26th) the Treasury auctioned $35 Billion of 2-year Notes.
Tomorrow (Wed 07/27th) and on Thursday 07/28th the Treasury will continue to auction $64 Billion of 2-year, 5-year, 7-year Notes.
Combined this will bring the Treasury Auction to $99 Billion and all Notes will settle on August 1st, 2011 one day before the deadline.
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/RI/OFAnnce
I expected PIMCO to come out and make some kind of positive commentary to cheer up the market.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
USDJPY is currently at 77.821 (2011-07-27, 00:46 am EST)
USDCAD is currently at 0.94283 (2011-07-27, 00:46 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is -2% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-27, 00:47 am EST)
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
In today's trading session US markets continued to fall due to worse than expected housing data and the impasse of its debt ceiling talks.
Article - "U.S. Housing Prices Rise Slightly, but Remain Weak"
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/27/business/economy/home-prices-ticked-up-in-may.html
Republican John Andrew Boehner continues to battle Democratic President Barack Hussein Obama II in political jousting over the details of the debt deal.
Article - "Boehner delays vote on his debt-ceiling measure - Boehner delays debt measure vote after estimate finds it would cut spending less than thought"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Boehner-delays-vote-on-his-apf-2084906714.html;_ylt=AmmLdjS8mCGLLyVK8MkdP22xba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFkN3RiYzRwBHBvcwMyBHNlYwNuZXdzSHViQXJ0aWNsZUxpc3QEc2xrA2JvZWhuZXJkZWxheQ--?x=0
There is talk that the Credit Rating for the United States of America will be down graded if a satisfactory resolution and a big enough raise of the debt ceiling is not found. This is very similar to the Eurozone situation, there are differences, but there are similarities.
Article - "DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY Debt Limit: Myth v. Fact"
http://www.treasury.gov/initiatives/Documents/Debt%20Limit%20Myth%20v%20Fact%20FINAL.pdf
Article - "Deal or no deal? US downgrade looking likely - Market analysts are beginning to think the US will avoid a default, but lose its AAA rating"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Deal-or-no-deal-US-downgrade-apf-3433492877.html;_ylt=ArFncQ7K6Q.LCyOo319hdpuxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlNTcwc24xBHBvcwM5OQRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNkZWFsb3Jub2RlYWw-?x=0
Today (Tues 07/26th) the Treasury auctioned $35 Billion of 2-year Notes.
Tomorrow (Wed 07/27th) and on Thursday 07/28th the Treasury will continue to auction $64 Billion of 2-year, 5-year, 7-year Notes.
Combined this will bring the Treasury Auction to $99 Billion and all Notes will settle on August 1st, 2011 one day before the deadline.
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/RI/OFAnnce
I expected PIMCO to come out and make some kind of positive commentary to cheer up the market.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
USDJPY is currently at 77.821 (2011-07-27, 00:46 am EST)
USDCAD is currently at 0.94283 (2011-07-27, 00:46 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is -2% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-27, 00:47 am EST)
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
2011-07-25th (Mon)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
In today's trading session US markets fell mostly due to the impasse of its debt ceiling talks.
Article - "Obama: Halt '3-ring-circus,' avert US default - Obama appeals for debt-limit compromise; Boehner says GOP sticks by its spending-cuts bill"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Obama-Halt-3ringcircus-avert-apf-2668049096.html;_ylt=AudBjPatxYHwgqCPOp.yFhSxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFkdjM1NzZtBHBvcwM1BHNlYwNuZXdzSHViQXJ0aWNsZUxpc3QEc2xrA29iYW1haGFsdDMtcg--?x=0
Europe's debt problem although much larger than the US will take a back seat until August 2nd, and some are saying the deadline may be pushed further to August 15th.
Article - "Europe’s Troubled Economies Join the Rescue Team"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43880026//
Our portfolio equity continues to decline as the US Dollar weakens against the JPY beyond Year 1995 levels, and the US Dollar weakens against the CAD approaching Year 2007 lows.
This week will be a full testing of our resolve as we wait for events to unfold.
Article - "Preparing for worst as debt-limit talks drag on - With debt-ceiling deal elusive, investors look for hiding places, and find precious few"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Preparing-for-worst-as-apf-745849065.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=
Our Stakeholders are divided in opinion, and understandably so given the circumstances. In my experience when emotions run high it is a sign that the market is about to turn. In this case we have a date of August 2nd to look forward to if it does not get extended to August 15th.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
USDJPY is currently at 78.035 (2011-07-26, 02:04 am EST)
USDCAD is currently at 0.94407 (2011-07-26, 02:04 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 0% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-26, 02:05 am EST)
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
In today's trading session US markets fell mostly due to the impasse of its debt ceiling talks.
Article - "Obama: Halt '3-ring-circus,' avert US default - Obama appeals for debt-limit compromise; Boehner says GOP sticks by its spending-cuts bill"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Obama-Halt-3ringcircus-avert-apf-2668049096.html;_ylt=AudBjPatxYHwgqCPOp.yFhSxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFkdjM1NzZtBHBvcwM1BHNlYwNuZXdzSHViQXJ0aWNsZUxpc3QEc2xrA29iYW1haGFsdDMtcg--?x=0
Europe's debt problem although much larger than the US will take a back seat until August 2nd, and some are saying the deadline may be pushed further to August 15th.
Article - "Europe’s Troubled Economies Join the Rescue Team"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43880026//
Our portfolio equity continues to decline as the US Dollar weakens against the JPY beyond Year 1995 levels, and the US Dollar weakens against the CAD approaching Year 2007 lows.
This week will be a full testing of our resolve as we wait for events to unfold.
Article - "Preparing for worst as debt-limit talks drag on - With debt-ceiling deal elusive, investors look for hiding places, and find precious few"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Preparing-for-worst-as-apf-745849065.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=
Our Stakeholders are divided in opinion, and understandably so given the circumstances. In my experience when emotions run high it is a sign that the market is about to turn. In this case we have a date of August 2nd to look forward to if it does not get extended to August 15th.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
USDJPY is currently at 78.035 (2011-07-26, 02:04 am EST)
USDCAD is currently at 0.94407 (2011-07-26, 02:04 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 0% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-26, 02:05 am EST)
Friday, July 22, 2011
2011-07-22nd (Fri)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
In today's trading session technology stocks led the rise in NASDAQ.
So far US corporate earnings are not skewed to the good or bad side, and to some analysts that is a surprise, for there is legitimate concern that earnings down the road may suffer.
I acknowledge the US economy is not at its best now, but I believe the US people have the resolve to pull out of their bad situation. For this reason we continue to invest in their market with reduced exposure but would never pull out completely.
We continue to Long USD against CAD and JPY when both economies are at an advantage over the US now. The media is building up to a climax of negativity and this sentiment is hard to ignore, but examining my previous notes and data points continue to point me to the same trade decisions.
I may not be able to correctly derive the direction of the currency pairs on a daily basis, and I wonder if there is on Earth any trader that can do so. Therefore I continue to management my total value at risk levels so daily fluctuations do no destroy our equity completely, and accumulate positions slowly to a maximum acceptable amount.
Next week is opportunity for some wild swings in the USD, today seems to have hit the point where negotiating parties leave the table due to frustration. For me it means taking time off for each party to find ways to save face and come back together later, and before Aug 2nd.
Article - "Boehner withdraws from debt talks with Obama - Talks off: Boehner says 'couldn't connect' with WH; Obama says GOP must find default solution"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Boehner-withdraws-from-debt-apf-3051861922.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=
We are positioned to gain nicely if US Debt Ceiling talks turn well, if they do not our exposure will not ruin us either.
In other news, the daily speculative theatrics continue, and we can expect markets to continue flip-flopping on each piece of news.
Article - "Dollar up against euro as aid plan digested - Dollar regains some ground against euro as investors mull impact of Greek aid deal"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Dollar-up-against-euro-as-aid-apf-3133313699.html;_ylt=As1hMOeXYaTHpjgB7ikb5Wuxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlMDhhaWFjBHBvcwM5NQRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNkb2xsYXJ1cGFnYWk-?x=0
Article - "Oil settles near $100 - Oil settles near $100 a barrel on US debt issue, 2nd Greece bailout deal reached"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Oil-settles-near-apf-1930874315.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
USDJPY closed at 78.525 (2011-07-22, 22:01 pm EST)
USDCAD closed at 0.94765 (2011-07-22, 22:01 pm EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 5% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
I will use the weekend to recage and refocus on strategy and risk management.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-22, 22:09 pm EST)
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
In today's trading session technology stocks led the rise in NASDAQ.
So far US corporate earnings are not skewed to the good or bad side, and to some analysts that is a surprise, for there is legitimate concern that earnings down the road may suffer.
I acknowledge the US economy is not at its best now, but I believe the US people have the resolve to pull out of their bad situation. For this reason we continue to invest in their market with reduced exposure but would never pull out completely.
We continue to Long USD against CAD and JPY when both economies are at an advantage over the US now. The media is building up to a climax of negativity and this sentiment is hard to ignore, but examining my previous notes and data points continue to point me to the same trade decisions.
I may not be able to correctly derive the direction of the currency pairs on a daily basis, and I wonder if there is on Earth any trader that can do so. Therefore I continue to management my total value at risk levels so daily fluctuations do no destroy our equity completely, and accumulate positions slowly to a maximum acceptable amount.
Next week is opportunity for some wild swings in the USD, today seems to have hit the point where negotiating parties leave the table due to frustration. For me it means taking time off for each party to find ways to save face and come back together later, and before Aug 2nd.
Article - "Boehner withdraws from debt talks with Obama - Talks off: Boehner says 'couldn't connect' with WH; Obama says GOP must find default solution"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Boehner-withdraws-from-debt-apf-3051861922.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=
We are positioned to gain nicely if US Debt Ceiling talks turn well, if they do not our exposure will not ruin us either.
In other news, the daily speculative theatrics continue, and we can expect markets to continue flip-flopping on each piece of news.
Article - "Dollar up against euro as aid plan digested - Dollar regains some ground against euro as investors mull impact of Greek aid deal"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Dollar-up-against-euro-as-aid-apf-3133313699.html;_ylt=As1hMOeXYaTHpjgB7ikb5Wuxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlMDhhaWFjBHBvcwM5NQRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNkb2xsYXJ1cGFnYWk-?x=0
Article - "Oil settles near $100 - Oil settles near $100 a barrel on US debt issue, 2nd Greece bailout deal reached"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Oil-settles-near-apf-1930874315.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
USDJPY closed at 78.525 (2011-07-22, 22:01 pm EST)
USDCAD closed at 0.94765 (2011-07-22, 22:01 pm EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 5% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
I will use the weekend to recage and refocus on strategy and risk management.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-22, 22:09 pm EST)
2011-07-21st (Thurs)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
The time is now 07/22nd (Fri) 12:43 pm.
Last night I suddenly felt the overwhelming effects of heat-stroke accumulated from running around the city this week, and immediately went to rest instead of risking it.
So was not able to write yesterday's report until now, sorry for the delay.
The sentiment in last night's 07/21st (Thurs) afterhours trading session and futures indicators going into today was anticipation of market reaction to the newest incarnation of the Greece Bailout package.
North American markets today 07/22nd (Fri) so far are not over-reacting perhaps due to desensitization or more concerned about its own Debt Ceiling problems.
We should expect markets to continue flip-flopping on each piece of news
Our Stakeholders agreed on Wed 20th to maintain our postions until August 2nd, although each day brings mixed roller-coaster emotions.
I remind myself running OPM (Other People's Money) requires more than usual Mental Capital especially since our Portfolio is fighting itself back up to its High Water Mark.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
USDJPY is currently 78.458 (2011-07-22, 13:00 am EST)
USDCAD is currently 0.94896 (2011-07-22, 13:00 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 5% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-22, 13:02 am EST)
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
The time is now 07/22nd (Fri) 12:43 pm.
Last night I suddenly felt the overwhelming effects of heat-stroke accumulated from running around the city this week, and immediately went to rest instead of risking it.
So was not able to write yesterday's report until now, sorry for the delay.
The sentiment in last night's 07/21st (Thurs) afterhours trading session and futures indicators going into today was anticipation of market reaction to the newest incarnation of the Greece Bailout package.
North American markets today 07/22nd (Fri) so far are not over-reacting perhaps due to desensitization or more concerned about its own Debt Ceiling problems.
We should expect markets to continue flip-flopping on each piece of news
Our Stakeholders agreed on Wed 20th to maintain our postions until August 2nd, although each day brings mixed roller-coaster emotions.
I remind myself running OPM (Other People's Money) requires more than usual Mental Capital especially since our Portfolio is fighting itself back up to its High Water Mark.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
USDJPY is currently 78.458 (2011-07-22, 13:00 am EST)
USDCAD is currently 0.94896 (2011-07-22, 13:00 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 5% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-22, 13:02 am EST)
Thursday, July 21, 2011
2011-07-20th (Wed)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
In today's trading session US markets failed to rally on yesterday's positive earnings.
We should expect markets to continue flip-flopping on each piece of news.
Article - "Stocks dip after biggest day in a year - Concerns about raising the debt limit overshadow stronger earnings and merger news"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-dip-after-biggest-day-apf-2370212205.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=
Our highest risk speculative portfolio continues to decline in equity value as the US Dollar weakened against the CAD and JPY.
Our Stakeholders agreed to maintain our postions until August 2nd.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
USDJPY is currently 78.691 (2011-07-21, 00:05 am EST)
USDCAD is currently 0.94632 (2011-07-21, 00:05 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 5% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-21, 00:06 am EST)
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
In today's trading session US markets failed to rally on yesterday's positive earnings.
We should expect markets to continue flip-flopping on each piece of news.
Article - "Stocks dip after biggest day in a year - Concerns about raising the debt limit overshadow stronger earnings and merger news"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-dip-after-biggest-day-apf-2370212205.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=
Our highest risk speculative portfolio continues to decline in equity value as the US Dollar weakened against the CAD and JPY.
Our Stakeholders agreed to maintain our postions until August 2nd.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
USDJPY is currently 78.691 (2011-07-21, 00:05 am EST)
USDCAD is currently 0.94632 (2011-07-21, 00:05 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 5% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-21, 00:06 am EST)
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
2011-07-19th (Tues)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 200,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96322
In today's trading session US markets found a reason to rally and tommorrow may continue to rally on positive Coca-Cola, IBM, blow out Apple earnings.
Article - "Stocks rebound on earnings, debt-limit proposal - Strong earnings from Coke, IBM send stocks up; Dow jumps 202, its biggest gain this year"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-rebound-on-earnings-apf-595594205.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=
We should expect markets to continue flip-flopping on each piece of news.
In today's Bank of Canada policy announcement it held interest rates constant but with a hawkish position suggesting an interest rate hike next time on Wed Sept 7th, 2011.
To hedge my existing Long USDCAD position I added a Long WTI Crude Oil position to my portfolio.
Buy-To-Open 5 contracts WTI Crude Oil Sep 2011 at 96.360 (2011-07-19, 02:14 am EST)
Buy 5 contracts WTI Crude Oil Sep 2011 at 97.150 (2011-07-19, 03:40 am EST)
Stop Loss Orders were placed accordingly but too tight and I was stopped out at a small profit.
Sell-To-Close 10 contracts WTI Crude Oil Sep 2011 at 97.010 (2011-07-19, 05:53 am EST) for a small profit.
I reviewed this trade with my Coach and understood that I would not have placed my Stop Loss at a lower level as I had demanded a minimum profit for my trade.
Thus there is no significant learning, except if I was mentally willing to place future Stop Losses at break-even point, but never at negative equity for that would imply I should have waited for a lower entry-point.
USDCAD fell as expected and I added slightly to my Long position.
Buy 100,000 USDCAD at 0.95100 (2011-07-19, 08:59 am EST)
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
USDJPY is currently 79.142 (2011-07-20, 00:40 am EST)
USDCAD is currently 0.95067 (2011-07-20, 00:40 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 10% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-20, 00:41 am EST)
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 200,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96322
In today's trading session US markets found a reason to rally and tommorrow may continue to rally on positive Coca-Cola, IBM, blow out Apple earnings.
Article - "Stocks rebound on earnings, debt-limit proposal - Strong earnings from Coke, IBM send stocks up; Dow jumps 202, its biggest gain this year"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-rebound-on-earnings-apf-595594205.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=
We should expect markets to continue flip-flopping on each piece of news.
In today's Bank of Canada policy announcement it held interest rates constant but with a hawkish position suggesting an interest rate hike next time on Wed Sept 7th, 2011.
To hedge my existing Long USDCAD position I added a Long WTI Crude Oil position to my portfolio.
Buy-To-Open 5 contracts WTI Crude Oil Sep 2011 at 96.360 (2011-07-19, 02:14 am EST)
Buy 5 contracts WTI Crude Oil Sep 2011 at 97.150 (2011-07-19, 03:40 am EST)
Stop Loss Orders were placed accordingly but too tight and I was stopped out at a small profit.
Sell-To-Close 10 contracts WTI Crude Oil Sep 2011 at 97.010 (2011-07-19, 05:53 am EST) for a small profit.
I reviewed this trade with my Coach and understood that I would not have placed my Stop Loss at a lower level as I had demanded a minimum profit for my trade.
Thus there is no significant learning, except if I was mentally willing to place future Stop Losses at break-even point, but never at negative equity for that would imply I should have waited for a lower entry-point.
USDCAD fell as expected and I added slightly to my Long position.
Buy 100,000 USDCAD at 0.95100 (2011-07-19, 08:59 am EST)
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
USDJPY is currently 79.142 (2011-07-20, 00:40 am EST)
USDCAD is currently 0.95067 (2011-07-20, 00:40 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 10% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-20, 00:41 am EST)
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
2011-07-18th (Mon)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 200,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96322
In today's trading session US markets fell on concerns of the US debt ceiling and European debt crisis.
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
We should expect markets to continue flip-flopping on each piece of news
Article - "Fears about debt send gold price to record - Investors searching for safety push gold to record price above $1,600 per ounce"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fears-about-debt-send-gold-apf-2055958735.html;_ylt=Ao.LZiBvD16Pp3lnIjNFGf.xba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlNzhwY2hnBHBvcwM5NQRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNmZWFyc2Fib3V0ZGU-?x=0
Article - "Sovereign Credit-Default Swaps"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38451750
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 200,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96322
USDJPY is currently 79.063 (2011-07-19, 01:11 am EST)
USDCAD is currently 0.95887 (2011-07-19, 01:11 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 11% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-19, 01:11 am EST)
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 200,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96322
In today's trading session US markets fell on concerns of the US debt ceiling and European debt crisis.
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
We should expect markets to continue flip-flopping on each piece of news
Article - "Fears about debt send gold price to record - Investors searching for safety push gold to record price above $1,600 per ounce"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fears-about-debt-send-gold-apf-2055958735.html;_ylt=Ao.LZiBvD16Pp3lnIjNFGf.xba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlNzhwY2hnBHBvcwM5NQRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNmZWFyc2Fib3V0ZGU-?x=0
Article - "Sovereign Credit-Default Swaps"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38451750
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 200,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96322
USDJPY is currently 79.063 (2011-07-19, 01:11 am EST)
USDCAD is currently 0.95887 (2011-07-19, 01:11 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 11% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-19, 01:11 am EST)
Saturday, July 16, 2011
2011-07-15th (Fri)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 200,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96322
In today's trading session US markets rose.
We had positive earnings from Google, and we had negative news of European bank stress testing.
Markets will continue to flip-flop on each piece of news regarding the national debt ceiling.
I found the following article on the purchase of farm land for investment purpose, and it is not to build homes, but for agricultural commodity speculation.
Article - "Down on the farm, investors see big potential - As food prices rise, investors plow money into Midwestern farms -- but is it a bucolic bubble?"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Down-on-the-farm-investors-apf-2437798760.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 200,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96322
USDJPY closed 79.119 (2011-07-16, 00:51 am EST)
USDCAD closed 0.95307 (2011-07-16, 00:51 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 10% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-16, 00:52 am EST)
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 200,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96322
In today's trading session US markets rose.
We had positive earnings from Google, and we had negative news of European bank stress testing.
Markets will continue to flip-flop on each piece of news regarding the national debt ceiling.
I found the following article on the purchase of farm land for investment purpose, and it is not to build homes, but for agricultural commodity speculation.
Article - "Down on the farm, investors see big potential - As food prices rise, investors plow money into Midwestern farms -- but is it a bucolic bubble?"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Down-on-the-farm-investors-apf-2437798760.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 200,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96322
USDJPY closed 79.119 (2011-07-16, 00:51 am EST)
USDCAD closed 0.95307 (2011-07-16, 00:51 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 10% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-16, 00:52 am EST)
Friday, July 15, 2011
2011-07-14th (Thurs) - Quantitative Easing III (QE3)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 200,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96322
In today's trading session US markets fell on Ben Bernanke's claim that there will not be any Quantitative Easing III (QE3).
This was a 180 degree turn from Bernanke's speech yesterday, and market participant's heads are still spinning from his abrupt turn about.
The reason is the US wants to maintain a Strong US Dollar policy, and we now have solid empirical evidence from the markets reaction and Ben Bernanke as evidenced on Tues 07/12th, Wed 07/13th, Thurs 07/14th to fall back on in our future trades.
Article - "Bernanke: No Plans to Add New Stimulus Measures Now"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43754917
Article - "S&P warns it may downgrade US credit rating - S&P warns it may downgrade US credit rating because of debt ceiling impasse"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/SampP-warns-it-may-downgrade-apf-3001686388.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=
Article - "Global Food Inflation to Return After Brief Respite"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43762905
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 200,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96322
USDJPY is currently 79.156 (2011-07-15, 00:11 am EST)
USDCAD is currently 0.95960 (2011-07-15, 00:11 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 13% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-15, 00:12 am EST)
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 200,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96322
In today's trading session US markets fell on Ben Bernanke's claim that there will not be any Quantitative Easing III (QE3).
This was a 180 degree turn from Bernanke's speech yesterday, and market participant's heads are still spinning from his abrupt turn about.
The reason is the US wants to maintain a Strong US Dollar policy, and we now have solid empirical evidence from the markets reaction and Ben Bernanke as evidenced on Tues 07/12th, Wed 07/13th, Thurs 07/14th to fall back on in our future trades.
Article - "Bernanke: No Plans to Add New Stimulus Measures Now"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43754917
Article - "S&P warns it may downgrade US credit rating - S&P warns it may downgrade US credit rating because of debt ceiling impasse"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/SampP-warns-it-may-downgrade-apf-3001686388.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=
Article - "Global Food Inflation to Return After Brief Respite"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43762905
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 200,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96322
USDJPY is currently 79.156 (2011-07-15, 00:11 am EST)
USDCAD is currently 0.95960 (2011-07-15, 00:11 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 13% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-15, 00:12 am EST)
Thursday, July 14, 2011
2011-07-13th (Wed) - Quantitative Easing III (QE3)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 200,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96322
In today's trading session US markets rallied on Ben Bernanke's speech but gave back some of their gains at the close for an overall up day.
Article - "Bernanke: Fed ready to act if economy worsens - Bernanke lays out options for new Fed action and warns Congress about danger of default"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Bernanke-Fed-ready-to-act-if-apf-1990658503.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=
Essentially the message is... Helicopter Ben is back!
For I am not aware of any major deviation from the standard Fiscal & Monetary Policy Playbook that the current condition of the US economy can take without poisoning itself.
I want to reiterate an article I quoted on (2011-06-27th (Mon)) and (2011-07-12th (Tues) - Quantitative Easing III (QE3)) below.
"While the $600 billion purchase program, known as QE2, winds down, the Fed said June 22 that it will continue to buy Treasuries with proceeds from the maturing debt it currently owns. That could mean purchases of as much as $300 billion of government debt over the next 12 months without adding money to the financial system."
Article - "Fed May Buy $300 Billion in Treasuries After QE2"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fed-May-Buy-300-Billion-in-bloomberg-1457319130.html;_ylt=Ak2_x5xz6bQMxVJZfJMT5vS7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1aWZlcGNuBHBvcwM0BHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNmZWRtYXlidXkzMDA-?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=
Bernanke says this maneuver of buying back matured bonds does not add money into the system and will not increase money supply.
So what will the Chinese do?
Will they slowly sell their vast holdings of US Treasuries to create a long-term negative pressure on the US Dollar as they add to the aggregate supply of US Dollars to the markets?
Article - "Researcher: China worried about US economy - Researcher: China worried about state of US economy, closely watching whether QE3 launched"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Researcher-China-worried-apf-2605871979.html;_ylt=Aoz7vss4XD.CyAGfkifSxnuxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFka2lsM2VuBHBvcwM0BHNlYwNuZXdzSHViQXJ0aWNsZUxpc3QEc2xrA3Jlc2VhcmNoZXJjaA--?x=0
I believe through a serious of events this will lead to a net increase in aggregate demand for US Dollars and a Stronger US Dollar, and perhaps my Thesis will become a hotly debated issue soon.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 200,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96322
USDJPY is currently 78.746 (2011-07-14, 03:06 am EST)
USDCAD is currently 0.96005 (2011-07-14, 03:06 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 11% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-14, 03:06 am EST)
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 200,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96322
In today's trading session US markets rallied on Ben Bernanke's speech but gave back some of their gains at the close for an overall up day.
Article - "Bernanke: Fed ready to act if economy worsens - Bernanke lays out options for new Fed action and warns Congress about danger of default"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Bernanke-Fed-ready-to-act-if-apf-1990658503.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=
Essentially the message is... Helicopter Ben is back!
For I am not aware of any major deviation from the standard Fiscal & Monetary Policy Playbook that the current condition of the US economy can take without poisoning itself.
I want to reiterate an article I quoted on (2011-06-27th (Mon)) and (2011-07-12th (Tues) - Quantitative Easing III (QE3)) below.
"While the $600 billion purchase program, known as QE2, winds down, the Fed said June 22 that it will continue to buy Treasuries with proceeds from the maturing debt it currently owns. That could mean purchases of as much as $300 billion of government debt over the next 12 months without adding money to the financial system."
Article - "Fed May Buy $300 Billion in Treasuries After QE2"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fed-May-Buy-300-Billion-in-bloomberg-1457319130.html;_ylt=Ak2_x5xz6bQMxVJZfJMT5vS7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1aWZlcGNuBHBvcwM0BHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNmZWRtYXlidXkzMDA-?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=
Bernanke says this maneuver of buying back matured bonds does not add money into the system and will not increase money supply.
So what will the Chinese do?
Will they slowly sell their vast holdings of US Treasuries to create a long-term negative pressure on the US Dollar as they add to the aggregate supply of US Dollars to the markets?
Article - "Researcher: China worried about US economy - Researcher: China worried about state of US economy, closely watching whether QE3 launched"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Researcher-China-worried-apf-2605871979.html;_ylt=Aoz7vss4XD.CyAGfkifSxnuxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFka2lsM2VuBHBvcwM0BHNlYwNuZXdzSHViQXJ0aWNsZUxpc3QEc2xrA3Jlc2VhcmNoZXJjaA--?x=0
I believe through a serious of events this will lead to a net increase in aggregate demand for US Dollars and a Stronger US Dollar, and perhaps my Thesis will become a hotly debated issue soon.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 200,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96322
USDJPY is currently 78.746 (2011-07-14, 03:06 am EST)
USDCAD is currently 0.96005 (2011-07-14, 03:06 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 11% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-14, 03:06 am EST)
Wednesday, July 13, 2011
2011-07-12th (Tues) - Quantitative Easing III (QE3)
At the end of the previous trading session I had no positions.
I was in 100% Cash.
In today's trading session all US markets continued to fall on worries of PIIGS debt worries, despite some predictable US company earnings.
Article - "Fed divided over more stimulus as economy weakens - Fed officials worried about US jobless, but divided over whether to consider more stimulus"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fed-divided-over-more-apf-1741332027.html;_ylt=AnSls39_gJOVQJlZPi7e4iyxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlNGl2dm44BHBvcwM5MwRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNmZWRkaXZpZGVkb3Y-?x=0
While the $600 billion purchase program, known as QE2, winds down, the Fed said June 22 that it will continue to buy Treasuries with proceeds from the maturing debt it currently owns. That could mean purchases of as much as $300 billion of government debt over the next 12 months without adding money to the financial system.
Article - "Fed May Buy $300 Billion in Treasuries After QE2"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fed-May-Buy-300-Billion-in-bloomberg-1457319130.html;_ylt=Ak2_x5xz6bQMxVJZfJMT5vS7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1aWZlcGNuBHBvcwM0BHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNmZWRtYXlidXkzMDA-?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode
The spreads of debt in PIIGS countries continue to widen.
Article - "Sovereign Credit-Default Swaps"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38451750
Bill Gross of Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) was reported to be Long US Treasurys.
Article - "PIMCO's Gross Raises US Treasurys in Flagship Fund"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43733676
As circumstances change so does his investment strategy.
Article - "Everyone on Wall Street Agrees with Bill Gross: Short Treasuries"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42536993
Article - "China Secures First Top Post at IMF"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43733101
Article - "China's economic growth eases amid rate hikes - China's economic growth eases to 9.5 percent amid rate hikes, anti-inflation battle"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Chinas-economic-growth-eases-apf-2533726777.html;_ylt=AnnaPku53RauMVXE19iq0Yixba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFkZ2hkZjIwBHBvcwM0BHNlYwNuZXdzSHViQXJ0aWNsZUxpc3QEc2xrA2NoaW5hc2Vjb25vbQ--?x=0
Ultimately as a trader, only the trades matter.
I am cautiously looking for the US Dollar to strenghten in the short-term as a flight to safety.
Buy-To-Open 300,000 USDJPY at 79.438 (2011-07-12, 22:03 pm EST)
Buy-To-Open 200,000 USDCAD at 0.96322 (2011-07-12, 23:09 pm EST)
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 200,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96322
USDJPY is currently 79.510 (2011-07-13, 01:21 am EST)
USDCAD is currently 0.96317 (2011-07-13, 01:21 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 16% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-13, 01:22 am EST)
I was in 100% Cash.
In today's trading session all US markets continued to fall on worries of PIIGS debt worries, despite some predictable US company earnings.
Article - "Fed divided over more stimulus as economy weakens - Fed officials worried about US jobless, but divided over whether to consider more stimulus"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fed-divided-over-more-apf-1741332027.html;_ylt=AnSls39_gJOVQJlZPi7e4iyxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlNGl2dm44BHBvcwM5MwRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNmZWRkaXZpZGVkb3Y-?x=0
While the $600 billion purchase program, known as QE2, winds down, the Fed said June 22 that it will continue to buy Treasuries with proceeds from the maturing debt it currently owns. That could mean purchases of as much as $300 billion of government debt over the next 12 months without adding money to the financial system.
Article - "Fed May Buy $300 Billion in Treasuries After QE2"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fed-May-Buy-300-Billion-in-bloomberg-1457319130.html;_ylt=Ak2_x5xz6bQMxVJZfJMT5vS7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1aWZlcGNuBHBvcwM0BHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNmZWRtYXlidXkzMDA-?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode
The spreads of debt in PIIGS countries continue to widen.
Article - "Sovereign Credit-Default Swaps"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38451750
Bill Gross of Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) was reported to be Long US Treasurys.
Article - "PIMCO's Gross Raises US Treasurys in Flagship Fund"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43733676
As circumstances change so does his investment strategy.
Article - "Everyone on Wall Street Agrees with Bill Gross: Short Treasuries"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42536993
Article - "China Secures First Top Post at IMF"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43733101
Article - "China's economic growth eases amid rate hikes - China's economic growth eases to 9.5 percent amid rate hikes, anti-inflation battle"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Chinas-economic-growth-eases-apf-2533726777.html;_ylt=AnnaPku53RauMVXE19iq0Yixba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFkZ2hkZjIwBHBvcwM0BHNlYwNuZXdzSHViQXJ0aWNsZUxpc3QEc2xrA2NoaW5hc2Vjb25vbQ--?x=0
Ultimately as a trader, only the trades matter.
I am cautiously looking for the US Dollar to strenghten in the short-term as a flight to safety.
Buy-To-Open 300,000 USDJPY at 79.438 (2011-07-12, 22:03 pm EST)
Buy-To-Open 200,000 USDCAD at 0.96322 (2011-07-12, 23:09 pm EST)
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 200,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96322
USDJPY is currently 79.510 (2011-07-13, 01:21 am EST)
USDCAD is currently 0.96317 (2011-07-13, 01:21 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 16% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-13, 01:22 am EST)
Monday, July 11, 2011
2011-07-11th (Mon)
At the end of the previous trading session I had no positions.
I was in 100% Cash.
As European markets began to trade pre-market I saw Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Contracts slide down and so got on the bus cautiously.
Sell-To-Open 20 contracts Dow30 Index at 12583.60 (2011-07-11, 05:52 am EST)
I did not go in big for Alcoa (AA) earnings was after-hours and I did not want to be caught in an up-swing.
A Stop-Loss Order was triggered during the intra-day volatility.
Buy-To-Close 20 contracts Dow30 Index at 12530.00 (2011-07-11, 12:27 pm EST) for a small profit.
I am currently in 100% Cash again.
In today's trading session all US markets fell due primarily to the worries about Italy and the US economy.
These articles caught my attention today.
I wonder how China is going to execute this strategy, with price subsidies, raising more livestock. Would they also need more animal feed?
Article - "China's premier orders boost to pork supplies - China's premier orders officials to boost pork output to hold down surging food costs"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Chinas-premier-orders-boost-apf-3615549903.html;_ylt=AjrH8xhYyITRtL8VOx_.FUSxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFkYXBhMHZoBHBvcwMyBHNlYwNuZXdzSHViQXJ0aWNsZUxpc3QEc2xrA2NoaW5hc3ByZW1pZQ--?x=0
I am curious how the market will react to terrorism news and how it fits into the overall picture. Will natural gas prices go up?
Article - "Officials: Gunmen blow up Egyptian pipeline - Officials say gunmen blow up terminal of Egyptian gas pipeline to Israel, Jordan"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Officials-Gunmen-blow-up-apf-3211117328.html;_ylt=AhBDHESXP2.tXDOPqrr_UzSxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFkbWlraXQ2BHBvcwM4BHNlYwNuZXdzSHViQXJ0aWNsZUxpc3QEc2xrA29mZmljaWFsc2d1bg--?x=0
I am curious how Sheila Bair will clarify issues in her book and what legacy she wants to leave.
Article - "Former FDIC head Sheila Bair has book deal - Former FDIC Sheila Bair has book deal, will write about financial crisis"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Former-FDIC-head-Sheila-Bair-apf-1041961607.html;_ylt=Ale3rBgKs5fCNZ07pDwMmBqxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlNWZwdjZvBHBvcwM5OQRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNmb3JtZXJmZGljaGU-?x=0
Flavour of the month news reporting, we already know Brazil's inflation rate was sky high. I will wait for others to inflate this issue to a national debt issue before I Short the Brazilian Real (BRL).
Article - "Credit-card debt may threaten Brazil's boom - Brazil gorges on credit-card debt, and economists worry it could threaten nation's boom"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Creditcard-debt-may-threaten-apf-3046211331.html;_ylt=AjnxiHFnG0gGzwhjzF1Ogamxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlZTZpcjEwBHBvcwMxOARzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNjcmVkaXQtY2FyZGQ-?x=0
Goldman Sachs Asset Management Chairman Jim O'Neill wrote a note titled "A Messy Start To July" over the weekend and it was quoted many times in the media and CNBC today.
Article - "Euro Zone Can't Afford Italian Bond Market Crisis - Goldman's O'Neill"
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110711-710124.html
Quote Jim o'Neill - "I have found it reasonably easy to not get too worried about the debt dynamics of Ireland, Portugal or Greece - but Italy is a different topic. While Brazil overtook Italy to become the world’s seventh largest economy last year, Italy is still a big economy. At 120 pct of GDP, Italy’s debt is equivalent to around 25 pct of the Euro Area GDP. Neither the Euro Area nor possibly the rest of the world can afford a full-blown Italian bond market crisis."
The complete article can be found on Goldman Sachs Asset Management's website.
Viewpoints from the Office of the Chairman, Jim O'Neill
http://www2.goldmansachs.com/gsam/worldwide/viewpoints/
Access Jim O’Neill’s latest insights on global investment themes and key market trends around the world.
http://www2.goldmansachs.com/gsam/advisors/education/viewpoints_from_chairman/viewpoints-pdfs/messy-start-to-july.pdf
It is quite an interesting read and I enjoyed what Jim O'Neill had to say about various countries and under-currents, it will be interesting to see if all those scenarios unfold the way he describes.
More importantly, how would a world class asset manager trade on those Thesis? And how can I get on the bus?
Since Jim O'Neill and I disagree on some points I have decided to not trade tonight and spend more time observing.
I am currently in 100% Cash.
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed). Although I am 100% in Cash, I am keeping the available margin for tomorrow's trading session.
Total equity is 16% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-11, 23:56 pm EST)
I was in 100% Cash.
As European markets began to trade pre-market I saw Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Contracts slide down and so got on the bus cautiously.
Sell-To-Open 20 contracts Dow30 Index at 12583.60 (2011-07-11, 05:52 am EST)
I did not go in big for Alcoa (AA) earnings was after-hours and I did not want to be caught in an up-swing.
A Stop-Loss Order was triggered during the intra-day volatility.
Buy-To-Close 20 contracts Dow30 Index at 12530.00 (2011-07-11, 12:27 pm EST) for a small profit.
I am currently in 100% Cash again.
In today's trading session all US markets fell due primarily to the worries about Italy and the US economy.
These articles caught my attention today.
I wonder how China is going to execute this strategy, with price subsidies, raising more livestock. Would they also need more animal feed?
Article - "China's premier orders boost to pork supplies - China's premier orders officials to boost pork output to hold down surging food costs"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Chinas-premier-orders-boost-apf-3615549903.html;_ylt=AjrH8xhYyITRtL8VOx_.FUSxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFkYXBhMHZoBHBvcwMyBHNlYwNuZXdzSHViQXJ0aWNsZUxpc3QEc2xrA2NoaW5hc3ByZW1pZQ--?x=0
I am curious how the market will react to terrorism news and how it fits into the overall picture. Will natural gas prices go up?
Article - "Officials: Gunmen blow up Egyptian pipeline - Officials say gunmen blow up terminal of Egyptian gas pipeline to Israel, Jordan"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Officials-Gunmen-blow-up-apf-3211117328.html;_ylt=AhBDHESXP2.tXDOPqrr_UzSxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFkbWlraXQ2BHBvcwM4BHNlYwNuZXdzSHViQXJ0aWNsZUxpc3QEc2xrA29mZmljaWFsc2d1bg--?x=0
I am curious how Sheila Bair will clarify issues in her book and what legacy she wants to leave.
Article - "Former FDIC head Sheila Bair has book deal - Former FDIC Sheila Bair has book deal, will write about financial crisis"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Former-FDIC-head-Sheila-Bair-apf-1041961607.html;_ylt=Ale3rBgKs5fCNZ07pDwMmBqxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlNWZwdjZvBHBvcwM5OQRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNmb3JtZXJmZGljaGU-?x=0
Flavour of the month news reporting, we already know Brazil's inflation rate was sky high. I will wait for others to inflate this issue to a national debt issue before I Short the Brazilian Real (BRL).
Article - "Credit-card debt may threaten Brazil's boom - Brazil gorges on credit-card debt, and economists worry it could threaten nation's boom"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Creditcard-debt-may-threaten-apf-3046211331.html;_ylt=AjnxiHFnG0gGzwhjzF1Ogamxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlZTZpcjEwBHBvcwMxOARzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNjcmVkaXQtY2FyZGQ-?x=0
Goldman Sachs Asset Management Chairman Jim O'Neill wrote a note titled "A Messy Start To July" over the weekend and it was quoted many times in the media and CNBC today.
Article - "Euro Zone Can't Afford Italian Bond Market Crisis - Goldman's O'Neill"
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110711-710124.html
Quote Jim o'Neill - "I have found it reasonably easy to not get too worried about the debt dynamics of Ireland, Portugal or Greece - but Italy is a different topic. While Brazil overtook Italy to become the world’s seventh largest economy last year, Italy is still a big economy. At 120 pct of GDP, Italy’s debt is equivalent to around 25 pct of the Euro Area GDP. Neither the Euro Area nor possibly the rest of the world can afford a full-blown Italian bond market crisis."
The complete article can be found on Goldman Sachs Asset Management's website.
Viewpoints from the Office of the Chairman, Jim O'Neill
http://www2.goldmansachs.com/gsam/worldwide/viewpoints/
Access Jim O’Neill’s latest insights on global investment themes and key market trends around the world.
http://www2.goldmansachs.com/gsam/advisors/education/viewpoints_from_chairman/viewpoints-pdfs/messy-start-to-july.pdf
It is quite an interesting read and I enjoyed what Jim O'Neill had to say about various countries and under-currents, it will be interesting to see if all those scenarios unfold the way he describes.
More importantly, how would a world class asset manager trade on those Thesis? And how can I get on the bus?
Since Jim O'Neill and I disagree on some points I have decided to not trade tonight and spend more time observing.
I am currently in 100% Cash.
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed). Although I am 100% in Cash, I am keeping the available margin for tomorrow's trading session.
Total equity is 16% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-11, 23:56 pm EST)
Sunday, July 10, 2011
2011-07-10th (Sun) - Interesting News Articles
This is not a posting regarding our High Risk Futures Contracts Portfolio.
This posting is to record articles that caught my attention because of the underlying currents.
Article - "EU stance shifts on Greece default - By Peter Spiegel in Brussels and Patrick Jenkins in London"
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5ffeabf0-ab09-11e0-b4d8-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1RlQYqiPE
Article - "Accounting change to show extra public debt - By Chris Giles and Adam Jones"
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/58971c24-a980-11e0-a04a-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss#axzz1RlQYqiPE
Article - "Spanish mortgage defaulters face debt nightmare - Double mortgage nightmare: Spanish defaulters lose home and stuck with debt as well"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Spanish-mortgage-defaulters-apf-297864406.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=
Article - "Italy Becoming a Bigger Priority for Euro Zone"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43705675
Article - "El-Erian: Keep a Close Eye on Italy"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43706018
Article - "China machinery maker wraps up work on Bay Bridge - China machinery maker wraps up work on Bay Bridge, aiming for niche in global building market"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-machinery-maker-wraps-apf-1667863505.html;_ylt=An.9wlwXSZ5Uv17aLtL.WNOxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFkdWZkMms3BHBvcwMyBHNlYwNuZXdzSHViQXJ0aWNsZUxpc3QEc2xrA2NoaW5hbWFjaGluZQ--?x=0
Article - "US officials visit China to discuss audit issues - US securities, audit officials visit China seeking progress on oversight of listed companies"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/US-officials-visit-China-to-apf-793082468.html;_ylt=AmtVcw8GBg38FO5gK3FOVOixba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFkZWVyZ3NiBHBvcwMzBHNlYwNuZXdzSHViQXJ0aWNsZUxpc3QEc2xrA3Vzb2ZmaWNpYWxzdg--?x=0
Article - "Where Was SEC As Trouble Festered at Chinese Companies?"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43706517
Article - "China's U.S.-Listed Stocks Are Junk"
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/113096/chinas-us-listed-stocks-junk-marketwatch;_ylt=AghxkuqUYHzvaDoBRqok_fG7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE2aGVjMHVpBHBvcwMxMQRzZWMDdG9wU3RvcmllcwRzbGsDY29tbWVudGFyeWNo?mod=bb-budgeting&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=
Article - "White House: US suspending $800M in Pakistan aid"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43703417
Article - "IMF chief calls on US to raise borrowing limit - IMF chief says failure to raise US borrowing limit would cause 'real nasty' economic fallout"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/IMF-chief-calls-on-US-to-apf-3125441348.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=
Article - "Best Currency Forecasters Say Dollar Slump Over"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Best-Currency-Forecasters-Say-bloomberg-764136974.html;_ylt=AtZOS7lvXMgH7D7hcYEYa1O7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1dHNzbXQ0BHBvcwM4BHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNiZXN0Y3VycmVuY3k-?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=
This posting is to record articles that caught my attention because of the underlying currents.
Article - "EU stance shifts on Greece default - By Peter Spiegel in Brussels and Patrick Jenkins in London"
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5ffeabf0-ab09-11e0-b4d8-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1RlQYqiPE
Article - "Accounting change to show extra public debt - By Chris Giles and Adam Jones"
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/58971c24-a980-11e0-a04a-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss#axzz1RlQYqiPE
Article - "Spanish mortgage defaulters face debt nightmare - Double mortgage nightmare: Spanish defaulters lose home and stuck with debt as well"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Spanish-mortgage-defaulters-apf-297864406.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=
Article - "Italy Becoming a Bigger Priority for Euro Zone"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43705675
Article - "El-Erian: Keep a Close Eye on Italy"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43706018
Article - "China machinery maker wraps up work on Bay Bridge - China machinery maker wraps up work on Bay Bridge, aiming for niche in global building market"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-machinery-maker-wraps-apf-1667863505.html;_ylt=An.9wlwXSZ5Uv17aLtL.WNOxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFkdWZkMms3BHBvcwMyBHNlYwNuZXdzSHViQXJ0aWNsZUxpc3QEc2xrA2NoaW5hbWFjaGluZQ--?x=0
Article - "US officials visit China to discuss audit issues - US securities, audit officials visit China seeking progress on oversight of listed companies"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/US-officials-visit-China-to-apf-793082468.html;_ylt=AmtVcw8GBg38FO5gK3FOVOixba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFkZWVyZ3NiBHBvcwMzBHNlYwNuZXdzSHViQXJ0aWNsZUxpc3QEc2xrA3Vzb2ZmaWNpYWxzdg--?x=0
Article - "Where Was SEC As Trouble Festered at Chinese Companies?"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43706517
Article - "China's U.S.-Listed Stocks Are Junk"
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/113096/chinas-us-listed-stocks-junk-marketwatch;_ylt=AghxkuqUYHzvaDoBRqok_fG7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE2aGVjMHVpBHBvcwMxMQRzZWMDdG9wU3RvcmllcwRzbGsDY29tbWVudGFyeWNo?mod=bb-budgeting&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=
Article - "White House: US suspending $800M in Pakistan aid"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43703417
Article - "IMF chief calls on US to raise borrowing limit - IMF chief says failure to raise US borrowing limit would cause 'real nasty' economic fallout"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/IMF-chief-calls-on-US-to-apf-3125441348.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=
Article - "Best Currency Forecasters Say Dollar Slump Over"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Best-Currency-Forecasters-Say-bloomberg-764136974.html;_ylt=AtZOS7lvXMgH7D7hcYEYa1O7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1dHNzbXQ0BHBvcwM4BHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNiZXN0Y3VycmVuY3k-?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=
Friday, July 8, 2011
2011-07-08th (Fri)
At the end of the previous trading session I had no positions.
I am currently in 100% Cash.
The media quoted today's employment figure as the straw that broke the camel's back.
I want to focus back on the economy, with employment as one single data point. Fundamentally we are still fragile, but the stock market will continue to spike with each improving data point, and our job is to trade them for profit.
Article - "Stocks sink after dismal June jobs report - Dow, S&P 500 sink after a dismal jobs report shows slower hiring, rising unemployment rate"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-sink-after-dismal-June-apf-2073081885.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=
WTI Crude price movement continues to elude me, as inventory decreases at Cushing, Oklahoma.
Article - "Oil falls over 2 percent on weak US jobs report - Oil down more than 2 percent as US unemployment rate rises on surprisingly weak job creation"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Oil-falls-over-2-percent-on-apf-1124282111.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=
I am curious how markets will interpret China's inflation figures in Monday's market, clearly we expect another Chinese rate hike next.
I wrote on 2011-06-14th (Tues), if we assume the central bank of China's target inflation rate is 4% then we should expect continued tightening action.
If concurrently the desired GDP growth is 6% then it will be an extremely hard juggling act of injecting stimulus money in desired sectors of the economy, while building flood gates to prevent spill over of hot money into undesired sectors of the economy.
Personally I am not aware of any Monetary Policy that can achieve both outcomes concurrently, it must be accompanied by Regulation, Fiscal Policy of higher taxes and reduced spending.
Continued grow is necessary for China to avoid civil unrest. Civil unrest is an on-going issue with economic development. A small portion of the population must achieve wealth first before the masses can achieve wealth (2011-06-13th (Mon)).
Article - "China's inflation jumps to 3-year high - China's inflation jumps to 3-year high even as economy cools; food costs up 14.4 percent"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Chinas-inflation-jumps-to-apf-2505423913.html;_ylt=AoYf7RHwbRjLRAcVrfwtujKxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFkMjQ2YmdwBHBvcwMxBHNlYwNuZXdzSHViQXJ0aWNsZUxpc3QEc2xrA2NoaW5hc2luZmxhdA--?x=0
The next three articles caught my eye for it is the underlying Business Models that I am interested in.
Creating Customer Loyalty is the Holy Grail for marketers, I will keep an eye on LevelUp.
Article - "Challenge to Groupon's model with trio of deals - New site LevelUp challenges Groupon's model with deals that get better as you buy"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Challenge-to-Groupons-model-apf-2691432066.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=
Baidu does not make business decisions lightly, they use their internal historical data to gauge the profitablity of each business unit. While there are Long Tail profits (Chris Anderson), personally I believe that businesses who specialize and become the best in class will capture dominant market share and profits.
Article - "Baidu restructures to focus on 4 businesses - Baidu restructures to focus on 4 business units"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Baidu-restructures-to-focus-apf-1410522786.html;_ylt=Ag_D5NHY.lYF3cfZ_Q8PWu2xba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlMnVkaWU1BHBvcwMyMwRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNiYWlkdXJlc3RydWM-?x=0
I do not understand the casino business, but I do understand Branding and the Luxury Business. I continue to believe Big, Glamourous, Luxurious casino destinations will continue to dominate the market share and profits. Smaller operators will eventually cut down on building maintenance because of declining margins, and once the establishment looks stale and uninteresting the customers will go else where.
Article - "3 firms want to build new, smaller casinos in AC- Hard Rock, Pinnacle, NJ locals want to build new, smaller casinos in Atlantic City"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-firms-want-to-build-new-apf-2603456176.html;_ylt=AvuCu_1yOZ8JlzpihwT0z0Sxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlZmk4MXJrBHBvcwM3MgRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawMzZmlybXN3YW50dG8-?x=0
I will spend the weekend researching the Thesis of a weakening EUR as ugly PIIGS recapture the media's attention.
I am currently in 100% Cash.
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed). Although I am 100% in Cash, I am keeping the available margin for Monday's trading session.
Total equity is 15% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-08, 23:33 pm EST)
I am currently in 100% Cash.
The media quoted today's employment figure as the straw that broke the camel's back.
I want to focus back on the economy, with employment as one single data point. Fundamentally we are still fragile, but the stock market will continue to spike with each improving data point, and our job is to trade them for profit.
Article - "Stocks sink after dismal June jobs report - Dow, S&P 500 sink after a dismal jobs report shows slower hiring, rising unemployment rate"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-sink-after-dismal-June-apf-2073081885.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=
WTI Crude price movement continues to elude me, as inventory decreases at Cushing, Oklahoma.
Article - "Oil falls over 2 percent on weak US jobs report - Oil down more than 2 percent as US unemployment rate rises on surprisingly weak job creation"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Oil-falls-over-2-percent-on-apf-1124282111.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=
I am curious how markets will interpret China's inflation figures in Monday's market, clearly we expect another Chinese rate hike next.
I wrote on 2011-06-14th (Tues), if we assume the central bank of China's target inflation rate is 4% then we should expect continued tightening action.
If concurrently the desired GDP growth is 6% then it will be an extremely hard juggling act of injecting stimulus money in desired sectors of the economy, while building flood gates to prevent spill over of hot money into undesired sectors of the economy.
Personally I am not aware of any Monetary Policy that can achieve both outcomes concurrently, it must be accompanied by Regulation, Fiscal Policy of higher taxes and reduced spending.
Continued grow is necessary for China to avoid civil unrest. Civil unrest is an on-going issue with economic development. A small portion of the population must achieve wealth first before the masses can achieve wealth (2011-06-13th (Mon)).
Article - "China's inflation jumps to 3-year high - China's inflation jumps to 3-year high even as economy cools; food costs up 14.4 percent"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Chinas-inflation-jumps-to-apf-2505423913.html;_ylt=AoYf7RHwbRjLRAcVrfwtujKxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFkMjQ2YmdwBHBvcwMxBHNlYwNuZXdzSHViQXJ0aWNsZUxpc3QEc2xrA2NoaW5hc2luZmxhdA--?x=0
The next three articles caught my eye for it is the underlying Business Models that I am interested in.
Creating Customer Loyalty is the Holy Grail for marketers, I will keep an eye on LevelUp.
Article - "Challenge to Groupon's model with trio of deals - New site LevelUp challenges Groupon's model with deals that get better as you buy"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Challenge-to-Groupons-model-apf-2691432066.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=
Baidu does not make business decisions lightly, they use their internal historical data to gauge the profitablity of each business unit. While there are Long Tail profits (Chris Anderson), personally I believe that businesses who specialize and become the best in class will capture dominant market share and profits.
Article - "Baidu restructures to focus on 4 businesses - Baidu restructures to focus on 4 business units"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Baidu-restructures-to-focus-apf-1410522786.html;_ylt=Ag_D5NHY.lYF3cfZ_Q8PWu2xba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlMnVkaWU1BHBvcwMyMwRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNiYWlkdXJlc3RydWM-?x=0
I do not understand the casino business, but I do understand Branding and the Luxury Business. I continue to believe Big, Glamourous, Luxurious casino destinations will continue to dominate the market share and profits. Smaller operators will eventually cut down on building maintenance because of declining margins, and once the establishment looks stale and uninteresting the customers will go else where.
Article - "3 firms want to build new, smaller casinos in AC- Hard Rock, Pinnacle, NJ locals want to build new, smaller casinos in Atlantic City"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-firms-want-to-build-new-apf-2603456176.html;_ylt=AvuCu_1yOZ8JlzpihwT0z0Sxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlZmk4MXJrBHBvcwM3MgRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawMzZmlybXN3YW50dG8-?x=0
I will spend the weekend researching the Thesis of a weakening EUR as ugly PIIGS recapture the media's attention.
I am currently in 100% Cash.
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed). Although I am 100% in Cash, I am keeping the available margin for Monday's trading session.
Total equity is 15% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-08, 23:33 pm EST)
2011-07-07th (Thurs)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following position;
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96444
In today's trading session all US markets continued to rally on good ADP numbers.
WTI Crude Oil prices increased as inventory decreased, and the USD weakened slightly.
Dow Futures rose as the data was announced, during Warren Buffett's live interview on CNBC.
Article - "Oil prices jump over $2 on signs of a strengthening economy"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Oil-prices-jump-over-2-on-cnnm-1370091538.html?x=0&.v=2
This is the first time I have heard of MAC virus problems, and it is hard to gauge how the stock will react long-term. As long as sales revenues are unaffected the stock should continue to rise.
Article - "Security holes discovered in iPhones, iPads - New security holes in iPhones, iPads stir fears about attacks; 'jailbreaking' in spotlight"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Security-holes-discovered-in-apf-309682075.html;_ylt=AlZpl9Pvp6R5t9uO_8UWo66xba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlbXNrM2Q4BHBvcwMxMwRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNzZWN1cml0eWhvbGU-?x=0
A Stop-Loss Order was triggered earlier in the day.
Sell 300,000 USDCAD at 0.96500 (2011-07-07, 03:54 am EST) for a tiny profit.
I am currently in 100% Cash.
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 15% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-08, 00:10 am EST)
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96444
In today's trading session all US markets continued to rally on good ADP numbers.
WTI Crude Oil prices increased as inventory decreased, and the USD weakened slightly.
Dow Futures rose as the data was announced, during Warren Buffett's live interview on CNBC.
Article - "Oil prices jump over $2 on signs of a strengthening economy"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Oil-prices-jump-over-2-on-cnnm-1370091538.html?x=0&.v=2
This is the first time I have heard of MAC virus problems, and it is hard to gauge how the stock will react long-term. As long as sales revenues are unaffected the stock should continue to rise.
Article - "Security holes discovered in iPhones, iPads - New security holes in iPhones, iPads stir fears about attacks; 'jailbreaking' in spotlight"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Security-holes-discovered-in-apf-309682075.html;_ylt=AlZpl9Pvp6R5t9uO_8UWo66xba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlbXNrM2Q4BHBvcwMxMwRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNzZWN1cml0eWhvbGU-?x=0
A Stop-Loss Order was triggered earlier in the day.
Sell 300,000 USDCAD at 0.96500 (2011-07-07, 03:54 am EST) for a tiny profit.
I am currently in 100% Cash.
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 15% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-08, 00:10 am EST)
Thursday, July 7, 2011
2011-07-06th (Wed)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following position;
Long 600,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96444
In today's trading session the US markets continued to rally although the pace was slower than last week. Personally I was expecting the markets to give back their gains.
I expect to see more significant red herrings of credit reviews from the rating agencies shaking the market.
I continue to go with my Thesis of a US Dollar spike in the short-term, and am looking to Short the EURUSD pair.
WTI Crude price movement continues to elude me, as inventory decreases at Cushing, Oklahoma.
These articles caught my attention today;
Article - "Stock market shrugs off weak service sector report - Stock indexes edge higher, shrugging off weakness in US service sector and Portugal downgrade"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stock-market-shrugs-off-weak-apf-3443650729.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=
Article - "Obama takes on 'tweeters' in Twitter town hall - Obama trades tweets in hourlong Twitter town hall, answering questions at the White House"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Obama-takes-on-tweeters-in-apf-1148016144.html;_ylt=AtkgV3eJuc.ckjfe21Orb6axba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlOTcxcTQ2BHBvcwM5MgRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNvYmFtYXRha2Vzb24-?x=0
This military strategy makes a lot of economic sense, as aircraft carriers are so much easier to detect compared to submarines. A fleet of small crews running less expensive but more versatile submarines capable of deploying multiple platforms in a multitude of scenarios is the way of the future.
Article - "Electric Boat hires hundreds of new workers - Electric Boat hires hundreds of new workers, builds new facilities in submarine boom "
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Electric-Boat-hires-hundreds-apf-3920276798.html;_ylt=ArL5Ce4kXYXGRU1eLftzq5yxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFldjV1YTNjBHBvcwM5NARzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNlbGVjdHJpY2JvYXQ-?x=0
I am thinking logistics, and perhaps a more efficient inter-continential transportation network which will take time to morph. However, I hate following 18-wheelers on the freeway.
Article - "US, Mexico sign cross-border trucking agreement - US, Mexico sign agreement allowing free flow of cross-border trucking"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/US-Mexico-sign-crossborder-apf-1284720833.html;_ylt=AmiqwypLFgaXRCShQPglXOyxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlN2NzNDNpBHBvcwM5NwRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawN1c21leGljb3NpZ24-?x=0
This legal case will set precedence in ownership of property, especially in the area of circumstances when acquiring such property. I can see the argument being extended to mortgage foreclosures.
Article - "Pa. family fights US over rare 1933 gold coins - Pa. family on trial over seized gold coins; US says 1933 "double eagles" stolen from Mint"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Pa-family-fights-US-over-rare-apf-750938424.html;_ylt=AgB0O0GYG9OGVLjiRNU6Eoixba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlczM3czllBHBvcwM1NwRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNwYWZhbWlseWZpZ2g-?x=0
A Stop-Loss Order was triggered earlier in the day.
Sell 300,000 USDCAD at 0.96450 (2011-07-06, 20:36 pm EST) for a breakeven.
Currently I have the following position;
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96444
USDCAD is currently 0.96594 (2011-07-07, 01:21 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 15% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-07, 01:22 am EST)
Long 600,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96444
In today's trading session the US markets continued to rally although the pace was slower than last week. Personally I was expecting the markets to give back their gains.
I expect to see more significant red herrings of credit reviews from the rating agencies shaking the market.
I continue to go with my Thesis of a US Dollar spike in the short-term, and am looking to Short the EURUSD pair.
WTI Crude price movement continues to elude me, as inventory decreases at Cushing, Oklahoma.
These articles caught my attention today;
Article - "Stock market shrugs off weak service sector report - Stock indexes edge higher, shrugging off weakness in US service sector and Portugal downgrade"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stock-market-shrugs-off-weak-apf-3443650729.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=
Article - "Obama takes on 'tweeters' in Twitter town hall - Obama trades tweets in hourlong Twitter town hall, answering questions at the White House"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Obama-takes-on-tweeters-in-apf-1148016144.html;_ylt=AtkgV3eJuc.ckjfe21Orb6axba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlOTcxcTQ2BHBvcwM5MgRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNvYmFtYXRha2Vzb24-?x=0
This military strategy makes a lot of economic sense, as aircraft carriers are so much easier to detect compared to submarines. A fleet of small crews running less expensive but more versatile submarines capable of deploying multiple platforms in a multitude of scenarios is the way of the future.
Article - "Electric Boat hires hundreds of new workers - Electric Boat hires hundreds of new workers, builds new facilities in submarine boom "
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Electric-Boat-hires-hundreds-apf-3920276798.html;_ylt=ArL5Ce4kXYXGRU1eLftzq5yxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFldjV1YTNjBHBvcwM5NARzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNlbGVjdHJpY2JvYXQ-?x=0
I am thinking logistics, and perhaps a more efficient inter-continential transportation network which will take time to morph. However, I hate following 18-wheelers on the freeway.
Article - "US, Mexico sign cross-border trucking agreement - US, Mexico sign agreement allowing free flow of cross-border trucking"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/US-Mexico-sign-crossborder-apf-1284720833.html;_ylt=AmiqwypLFgaXRCShQPglXOyxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlN2NzNDNpBHBvcwM5NwRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawN1c21leGljb3NpZ24-?x=0
This legal case will set precedence in ownership of property, especially in the area of circumstances when acquiring such property. I can see the argument being extended to mortgage foreclosures.
Article - "Pa. family fights US over rare 1933 gold coins - Pa. family on trial over seized gold coins; US says 1933 "double eagles" stolen from Mint"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Pa-family-fights-US-over-rare-apf-750938424.html;_ylt=AgB0O0GYG9OGVLjiRNU6Eoixba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlczM3czllBHBvcwM1NwRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNwYWZhbWlseWZpZ2g-?x=0
A Stop-Loss Order was triggered earlier in the day.
Sell 300,000 USDCAD at 0.96450 (2011-07-06, 20:36 pm EST) for a breakeven.
Currently I have the following position;
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96444
USDCAD is currently 0.96594 (2011-07-07, 01:21 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 15% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-07, 01:22 am EST)
Tuesday, July 5, 2011
2011-07-05th (Tues)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following position;
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96662
In today's trading session the inverse-dollar trade was violated as both commodities and the USD rose.
I am completely at a loss why WTI Crude rose but I am too scared to Short it as I had signigicant losses last week in WTI Crude and it is still crowding my judgement.
So this early morning I played it in advance indirectly by increasing my Long USDCAD position.
Buy 300,000 USDCAD at 0.96226 (2011-07-05, 2:29 am EST)
These articles caught my attention today;
Article - "Moody's downgrades Portugal on fear of 2nd bailout - Ratings agency Moody's downgrades Portugal's debt by 1 notch, citing risk of second bailout"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Moodys-downgrades-Portugal-on-apf-1414294635.html;_ylt=As2o6c74xVfgBPozl64u1ZCxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFkOTU2bWdkBHBvcwMzBHNlYwNuZXdzSHViQXJ0aWNsZUxpc3QEc2xrA21vb2R5c2Rvd25ncg--?x=0
Article - "Gold, silver prices climb on Greek debt worries - Gold, silver rise as questions linger about latest efforts to aid Greece"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Gold-silver-prices-climb-on-apf-2422885325.html;_ylt=AifteF7zDV2r02xLOqk2QlCxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlM2NhcTc0BHBvcwMyMgRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNnb2xkc2lsdmVycHI-?x=0
Article - "Moody’s Sees Much Bigger Local Debt in China"
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/06/business/global/06iht-yuan06.html
Article - "Official says China to invest $9B in Brazil - Brazilian trade official says China will invest $9 billion in Brazil this year, half in tech"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Official-says-China-to-invest-apf-3738497861.html;_ylt=AjAgxZFYAIEq6xvUMc7ltSyxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlNHZwa2NtBHBvcwM3OARzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNvZmZpY2lhbHNheXM-?x=0
Article - "Brazil trying to curb strength of currency - Brazil to curb strength of currency as real hits highest level against dollar in 12 years"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Brazil-trying-to-curb-apf-1422611748.html;_ylt=Avaz_BmxH8MyF2nzaJQ0ABixba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlOXE2dnB1BHBvcwM1NwRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNicmF6aWx0cnlpbmc-?x=0
Article - "Obama warns against short-term deal on debt limit - Obama warns lawmakers against short-term deal on debt limit without long-term deficit cuts"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Obama-warns-against-shortterm-apf-2441557592.html;_ylt=AneRsg8N92YLdPhCDDObsQqxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFkM3UybmxvBHBvcwM0BHNlYwNuZXdzSHViQXJ0aWNsZUxpc3QEc2xrA29iYW1hd2FybnNhZw--?x=0
As raising Interest Rates is not wise at this point, neither should the US have tax-hikes too aggressively for we do not want to trigger a Lost Decade like Japan.
The least undesirable option now is to continue printing money and kicking it down the road.
Commodities will continue to be the vehicle of choice in both a Bull or Bear macro-economic scenario.
Currently I have the following position;
Long 600,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96444
USDCAD is currently 0.96287 (2011-07-05, 19:39 pm EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 13% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-05, 19:39 pm EST)
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96662
In today's trading session the inverse-dollar trade was violated as both commodities and the USD rose.
I am completely at a loss why WTI Crude rose but I am too scared to Short it as I had signigicant losses last week in WTI Crude and it is still crowding my judgement.
So this early morning I played it in advance indirectly by increasing my Long USDCAD position.
Buy 300,000 USDCAD at 0.96226 (2011-07-05, 2:29 am EST)
These articles caught my attention today;
Article - "Moody's downgrades Portugal on fear of 2nd bailout - Ratings agency Moody's downgrades Portugal's debt by 1 notch, citing risk of second bailout"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Moodys-downgrades-Portugal-on-apf-1414294635.html;_ylt=As2o6c74xVfgBPozl64u1ZCxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFkOTU2bWdkBHBvcwMzBHNlYwNuZXdzSHViQXJ0aWNsZUxpc3QEc2xrA21vb2R5c2Rvd25ncg--?x=0
Article - "Gold, silver prices climb on Greek debt worries - Gold, silver rise as questions linger about latest efforts to aid Greece"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Gold-silver-prices-climb-on-apf-2422885325.html;_ylt=AifteF7zDV2r02xLOqk2QlCxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlM2NhcTc0BHBvcwMyMgRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNnb2xkc2lsdmVycHI-?x=0
Article - "Moody’s Sees Much Bigger Local Debt in China"
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/06/business/global/06iht-yuan06.html
Article - "Official says China to invest $9B in Brazil - Brazilian trade official says China will invest $9 billion in Brazil this year, half in tech"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Official-says-China-to-invest-apf-3738497861.html;_ylt=AjAgxZFYAIEq6xvUMc7ltSyxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlNHZwa2NtBHBvcwM3OARzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNvZmZpY2lhbHNheXM-?x=0
Article - "Brazil trying to curb strength of currency - Brazil to curb strength of currency as real hits highest level against dollar in 12 years"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Brazil-trying-to-curb-apf-1422611748.html;_ylt=Avaz_BmxH8MyF2nzaJQ0ABixba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlOXE2dnB1BHBvcwM1NwRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNicmF6aWx0cnlpbmc-?x=0
Article - "Obama warns against short-term deal on debt limit - Obama warns lawmakers against short-term deal on debt limit without long-term deficit cuts"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Obama-warns-against-shortterm-apf-2441557592.html;_ylt=AneRsg8N92YLdPhCDDObsQqxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFkM3UybmxvBHBvcwM0BHNlYwNuZXdzSHViQXJ0aWNsZUxpc3QEc2xrA29iYW1hd2FybnNhZw--?x=0
As raising Interest Rates is not wise at this point, neither should the US have tax-hikes too aggressively for we do not want to trigger a Lost Decade like Japan.
The least undesirable option now is to continue printing money and kicking it down the road.
Commodities will continue to be the vehicle of choice in both a Bull or Bear macro-economic scenario.
Currently I have the following position;
Long 600,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96444
USDCAD is currently 0.96287 (2011-07-05, 19:39 pm EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 13% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-05, 19:39 pm EST)
Monday, July 4, 2011
2011-07-04th (Mon)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following position;
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96662
US markets were closed today and I took the time to research and find reasons to support & dispute my Thesis.
The following articles caught my interest.
Article - "S&P warns bank plan would cause Greek default - Ratings agency S&P warns Greece it would be in default if French banks' plan is enacted"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/SP-warns-bank-plan-would-apf-3299778612.html;_ylt=Ar3lIoiSm3bpa1_v.sdBXyyxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlbjc2cXJyBHBvcwMyNQRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNzcHdhcm5zYmFua3A-?x=0
Article - "UAE offers Egypt $3 billion in aid - United Arab Emirates offers Egypt $3 billion in aid"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/UAE-offers-Egypt-3-billion-in-apf-3193083842.html;_ylt=AvpRLDvJVvSzwp4YeAsTvU.xba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFkMXNramh1BHBvcwMyBHNlYwNuZXdzSHViQXJ0aWNsZUxpc3QEc2xrA3VhZW9mZmVyc2VneQ--?x=0
I am seeing EURUSD weaken slightly, and USDCAD strengthen slightly.
This week we have;
Reserve Bank of Australia expected to hold interest rates.
Bank of England expected to hold interest rates.
European Central Bank expected to raise interest rates.
Employment data.
Currently I have the following position;
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96662
USDCAD is currently 0.96118 (2011-07-04, 23:41 pm EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 11% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-04, 23:42 pm EST)
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96662
US markets were closed today and I took the time to research and find reasons to support & dispute my Thesis.
The following articles caught my interest.
Article - "S&P warns bank plan would cause Greek default - Ratings agency S&P warns Greece it would be in default if French banks' plan is enacted"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/SP-warns-bank-plan-would-apf-3299778612.html;_ylt=Ar3lIoiSm3bpa1_v.sdBXyyxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlbjc2cXJyBHBvcwMyNQRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNzcHdhcm5zYmFua3A-?x=0
Article - "UAE offers Egypt $3 billion in aid - United Arab Emirates offers Egypt $3 billion in aid"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/UAE-offers-Egypt-3-billion-in-apf-3193083842.html;_ylt=AvpRLDvJVvSzwp4YeAsTvU.xba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFkMXNramh1BHBvcwMyBHNlYwNuZXdzSHViQXJ0aWNsZUxpc3QEc2xrA3VhZW9mZmVyc2VneQ--?x=0
I am seeing EURUSD weaken slightly, and USDCAD strengthen slightly.
This week we have;
Reserve Bank of Australia expected to hold interest rates.
Bank of England expected to hold interest rates.
European Central Bank expected to raise interest rates.
Employment data.
Currently I have the following position;
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96662
USDCAD is currently 0.96118 (2011-07-04, 23:41 pm EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 11% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-04, 23:42 pm EST)
Friday, July 1, 2011
2011-07-01st (Fri)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following position;
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96662
In today's trading session all US markets rose on positive sentiment.
Given today's news reporting one would think the general public has already forgotten the volatlity we experienced the last months.
There were various data points released today;
US June Institute of Supply Management (ISM).
China June ISM by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and National Bureau of Statistics.
British June PMI manufacturing activity by the Markit/CIPS purchasing managers index.
Larry Levin's newsletter referred to an article which I found interesting, and I want to know how I can legally make money from this phenomenon.
Article - "Chicago's PMI News Release uncovers significant delays in OPRA 06/30/2011"
http://www.nanex.net/Research/OPRA_063011/OPRA_063011.html
Yesterday 2011-06-30th (Thurs) I wrote about Alan Greenspan's interview at the Aspen Ideas Festival, and I found an article in the news reiterating his view.
Article - "Alan Greenspan still gloomy on Greece, U.S. economy"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Alan-Greenspan-still-gloomy-cnnm-4212126222.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=
I will be taking some time off during the July 1st & 4th weekend to celebrate the freedom we enjoy.
Currently I have the following position;
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96662
USDCAD is currently 0.95849 (2011-07-01, 18:50 pm EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 10% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-01, 18:58 pm EST)
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96662
In today's trading session all US markets rose on positive sentiment.
Given today's news reporting one would think the general public has already forgotten the volatlity we experienced the last months.
There were various data points released today;
US June Institute of Supply Management (ISM).
China June ISM by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and National Bureau of Statistics.
British June PMI manufacturing activity by the Markit/CIPS purchasing managers index.
Larry Levin's newsletter referred to an article which I found interesting, and I want to know how I can legally make money from this phenomenon.
Article - "Chicago's PMI News Release uncovers significant delays in OPRA 06/30/2011"
http://www.nanex.net/Research/OPRA_063011/OPRA_063011.html
Yesterday 2011-06-30th (Thurs) I wrote about Alan Greenspan's interview at the Aspen Ideas Festival, and I found an article in the news reiterating his view.
Article - "Alan Greenspan still gloomy on Greece, U.S. economy"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Alan-Greenspan-still-gloomy-cnnm-4212126222.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=
I will be taking some time off during the July 1st & 4th weekend to celebrate the freedom we enjoy.
Currently I have the following position;
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96662
USDCAD is currently 0.95849 (2011-07-01, 18:50 pm EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 10% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-01, 18:58 pm EST)
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