My previous report was made on 2011-08-05th (Fri), and in the past fourteen trading sessions we have stayed away from the extreme volatility that was witnessed.
I simply could not bring myself to a profitable position on the Dow Index or WTI Crude futures contracts, all my formulas were not giving me a true reading on the direction.
We are still experimenting with different time-frames and testing new algorithms, and so far none of them have been consistently profitable.
I am very close to phoning up Burton Malkiel to borrow his blind folded monkey.
Ultimately as trader only the trades matter.
Sell-To-Open 300,000 USDCAD at 0.98040 (2011-08-07, 21:48 pm EST)
Sell 100,000 USDCAD at 0.98355 (2011-08-08, 02:04 am EST)
Buy 100,000 USDCAD at 0.98306 (2011-08-08, 02:20 am EST)
Buy-To-Close 300,000 USDCAD at 0.98000 (2011-08-08, 03:34 am EST)
The above trades yielded us a tiny profit, but the algorithm was so messy and produced so many false signals we shut it down.
We constructed another algorithm and executed the following trades;
Sell-To-Open 150,000 USDCAD at 0.98680 (2011-08-08, 10:06 am EST)
Sell 50,000 USDCAD at 0.99083 (2011-08-08, 10:34 am EST)
Sell 50,000 USDCAD at 0.99189 (2011-08-08, 14:26 pm EST)
Then we sat out the next seven trading sessons as the markets got completely hammered.
Sell 150,000 USDCAD at 0.99210 (2011-08-18, 11:30 am EST)
Buy 150,000 USDCAD at 0.99076 (2011-08-18, 12:49 pm EST)
This algorithm is less messy but still producing so many false signals I am very close to shutting it down also.
Currently I have the following position;
Short 250,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.98863
USDCAD is currently 0.98625 (2011-08-26, 02:22 am EST)
At this moment I am not seeing the volumes I was expecting ahead of Bernanke's speech at Jackson Hole.
My Short USDCAD position is not entirely secure and I am prepared for a spike of strength back above par like what we saw on August 9th.
I will allow for wider swings, as our position is small, and we have the available margin.
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 0% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-08-26, 02:28 am EST)
Friday, August 26, 2011
Friday, August 5, 2011
2011-08-05th (Fri)
In the previous trading session I had no positions.
I was 100% in Cash.
In today's trading session US markets sold off after opening and staged a small relief rally towards the close.
Some investors were bottom picking at the end of the 10th day of the market crash, and speculators were Short Covering in anticipation of intervention to show its hand next Monday.
Intervention by the Obama administration is what we have to see starting Sunday August 7th when Forex markets open at 6:00 pm EST, for it is necessary to soften the blow when stock markets open on Monday August 8th, 2011.
Article - "United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/US-loses-AAA-credit-rating-rb-2187330642.html;_ylt=ArAq8oq5uOGNw9RnX9FZDSa7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1aDBmcnEzBHBvcwMzBHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNzYW1wcG9udXNkb3c-?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=
Article - "United States of America Long-Term Rating Lowered To 'AA+' On Political Risks And Rising Debt Burden; Outlook Negative"
http://www.standardandpoors.com/servlet/BlobServer?blobheadername3=MDT-Type&blobcol=urldata&blobtable=MungoBlobs&blobheadervalue2=inline%3B+filename%3DUS_Downgraded_AA%2B.pdf&blobheadername2=Content-Disposition&blobheadervalue1=application%2Fpdf&blobkey=id&blobheadername1=content-type&blobwhere=1243942957443&blobheadervalue3=UTF-8&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=
This weekend will be the most important two days of my life and career as I plough through all the data and come up with a Thesis and Game Plan.
Our highest risk speculative commodities futures and forex portfolio was stopped out of our postions on 2011-08-01st (Mon) and I suffered losses but next week we will trade ourselves to profit.
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 0% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-08-05, 22:48 pm EST)
I was 100% in Cash.
In today's trading session US markets sold off after opening and staged a small relief rally towards the close.
Some investors were bottom picking at the end of the 10th day of the market crash, and speculators were Short Covering in anticipation of intervention to show its hand next Monday.
Intervention by the Obama administration is what we have to see starting Sunday August 7th when Forex markets open at 6:00 pm EST, for it is necessary to soften the blow when stock markets open on Monday August 8th, 2011.
Article - "United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/US-loses-AAA-credit-rating-rb-2187330642.html;_ylt=ArAq8oq5uOGNw9RnX9FZDSa7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1aDBmcnEzBHBvcwMzBHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNzYW1wcG9udXNkb3c-?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=
Article - "United States of America Long-Term Rating Lowered To 'AA+' On Political Risks And Rising Debt Burden; Outlook Negative"
http://www.standardandpoors.com/servlet/BlobServer?blobheadername3=MDT-Type&blobcol=urldata&blobtable=MungoBlobs&blobheadervalue2=inline%3B+filename%3DUS_Downgraded_AA%2B.pdf&blobheadername2=Content-Disposition&blobheadervalue1=application%2Fpdf&blobkey=id&blobheadername1=content-type&blobwhere=1243942957443&blobheadervalue3=UTF-8&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=
This weekend will be the most important two days of my life and career as I plough through all the data and come up with a Thesis and Game Plan.
Our highest risk speculative commodities futures and forex portfolio was stopped out of our postions on 2011-08-01st (Mon) and I suffered losses but next week we will trade ourselves to profit.
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 0% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-08-05, 22:48 pm EST)
2011-08-04th (Thurs)
In the previous trading session I had no positions.
I was 100% in Cash.
In today's trading session US markets continued to sell off and dived at the close erasing the previous eight months of gains to close negative for the year.
In our highest risk speculative commodities futures and forex portfolio I was stopped out of my postions on 2011-08-01st (Mon) and suffered losses.
For now none of our techincal indicators are reading correctly because the front data is skewing all our curves, they all point down, and so will not be useful in catching a rebound.
Although at this moment the Volatility Index (VIX) is parabolic and could be at a point-of-inflection in the near future I do not wish to take the gamble.
So I decided to stay out until I could see some clarity.
I am uneasy what the employment data release tomorrow will do to the market.
If we see no brief relief rally then margin calls will be in full force over the weekend and next Monday will see fresh rounds of liquidation.
The USDJPY pair has caused me great pain as I saw my gains evaporate due to bad Stop Loss Orders on my part on 2011-08-01st (Mon), and it is killing me to get the direction right but botch the trade through bad execution.
Article - "Explaining Japan's Yen 'Repatriation Trade'
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42150232
Article - "How to Trade the Yen Post-Intervention"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44013717
I am keeping an eye on WTI Crude Oil because it trades more on inventory at Cushing, Oklahoma and less on economic fundamentals, so I will most likely Long this for a rebound.
Article - "Oil near $86 as outlook for crude demand dims - Oil falls to near $86 in Asia as investors anticipate weak US economy, crude demand"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Oil-near-86-as-outlook-for-apf-226256381.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=
In case you are wondering BNY Mellon deals only with large institutional depositors and does not deal directly with consumers, so I hope the media will not skew this move by the custodial bank.
Article - "Bank of New York Mellon adds fee to deposits - Citing cash influx, Bank of New York Mellon adds 0.13 percent fee for large deposits"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Bank-of-New-York-Mellon-adds-apf-3353726022.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 0% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-08-05, 00:35 am EST)
I was 100% in Cash.
In today's trading session US markets continued to sell off and dived at the close erasing the previous eight months of gains to close negative for the year.
In our highest risk speculative commodities futures and forex portfolio I was stopped out of my postions on 2011-08-01st (Mon) and suffered losses.
For now none of our techincal indicators are reading correctly because the front data is skewing all our curves, they all point down, and so will not be useful in catching a rebound.
Although at this moment the Volatility Index (VIX) is parabolic and could be at a point-of-inflection in the near future I do not wish to take the gamble.
So I decided to stay out until I could see some clarity.
I am uneasy what the employment data release tomorrow will do to the market.
If we see no brief relief rally then margin calls will be in full force over the weekend and next Monday will see fresh rounds of liquidation.
The USDJPY pair has caused me great pain as I saw my gains evaporate due to bad Stop Loss Orders on my part on 2011-08-01st (Mon), and it is killing me to get the direction right but botch the trade through bad execution.
Article - "Explaining Japan's Yen 'Repatriation Trade'
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42150232
Article - "How to Trade the Yen Post-Intervention"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44013717
I am keeping an eye on WTI Crude Oil because it trades more on inventory at Cushing, Oklahoma and less on economic fundamentals, so I will most likely Long this for a rebound.
Article - "Oil near $86 as outlook for crude demand dims - Oil falls to near $86 in Asia as investors anticipate weak US economy, crude demand"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Oil-near-86-as-outlook-for-apf-226256381.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=
In case you are wondering BNY Mellon deals only with large institutional depositors and does not deal directly with consumers, so I hope the media will not skew this move by the custodial bank.
Article - "Bank of New York Mellon adds fee to deposits - Citing cash influx, Bank of New York Mellon adds 0.13 percent fee for large deposits"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Bank-of-New-York-Mellon-adds-apf-3353726022.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 0% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-08-05, 00:35 am EST)
Thursday, August 4, 2011
2011-08-03rd (Wed)
In the previous trading session I had no positions.
I was 100% in Cash.
In today's trading session US markets continue to sell off in the first hours of trading before staging a come back to gain slightly at the end.
Since the magnitude of the come back was not significant I cannot assume that investors have regained confidence, but suspect it is a moderate degree of Short Covering.
It would seem the over whelming skew towards the downside has subsided as the volatility indexes tamed slightly, but I would still say there are more bears than bulls.
Technology stocks will be the first to be bought back when signs of economic slowdown ceases to free fall and appears to stable.
Article - "Dollar against most, investors eye US debt rating - Euro, yen stronger versus dollar; volatile versus franc after Swiss bank moves on rise"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Dollar-against-most-investors-apf-3326505081.html;_ylt=AtqVX0lD3zQub3v9m2oW6Yexba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlZjJjbWcxBHBvcwM5MQRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNkb2xsYXJhZ2FpbnM-?x=0
Article - "Japan Intervenes to Tame Yen, Central Bank Easing Eyed"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44012398
I had known on 2011-08-01st (Mon) that the USDJPY may rally for Reuters and CNBC had reported what I thought was BOJ's red herring.
Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda's reasoning for weakening the Yen was to help Japan be more competitive in exporting cars, and I could not see the net benefit to GDP = C + I + G + Net Exports.
Article - "Japan readying intervention to reverse yen: report"
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/01/businesspro-us-japan-yen-intervention-idUSTRE7704LC20110801
In the past I would have shot first and asked questions later, clearly I am still shaken up.
Ultimately as trader only the trades matter.
My head is still spinning from the beating we took on Monday and our purchasing power was significantly reduced so I am still reluctant to pull the trigger and resume trading.
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 0% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-08-04, 01:43 am)
I was 100% in Cash.
In today's trading session US markets continue to sell off in the first hours of trading before staging a come back to gain slightly at the end.
Since the magnitude of the come back was not significant I cannot assume that investors have regained confidence, but suspect it is a moderate degree of Short Covering.
It would seem the over whelming skew towards the downside has subsided as the volatility indexes tamed slightly, but I would still say there are more bears than bulls.
Technology stocks will be the first to be bought back when signs of economic slowdown ceases to free fall and appears to stable.
Article - "Dollar against most, investors eye US debt rating - Euro, yen stronger versus dollar; volatile versus franc after Swiss bank moves on rise"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Dollar-against-most-investors-apf-3326505081.html;_ylt=AtqVX0lD3zQub3v9m2oW6Yexba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlZjJjbWcxBHBvcwM5MQRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNkb2xsYXJhZ2FpbnM-?x=0
Article - "Japan Intervenes to Tame Yen, Central Bank Easing Eyed"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44012398
I had known on 2011-08-01st (Mon) that the USDJPY may rally for Reuters and CNBC had reported what I thought was BOJ's red herring.
Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda's reasoning for weakening the Yen was to help Japan be more competitive in exporting cars, and I could not see the net benefit to GDP = C + I + G + Net Exports.
Article - "Japan readying intervention to reverse yen: report"
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/01/businesspro-us-japan-yen-intervention-idUSTRE7704LC20110801
In the past I would have shot first and asked questions later, clearly I am still shaken up.
Ultimately as trader only the trades matter.
My head is still spinning from the beating we took on Monday and our purchasing power was significantly reduced so I am still reluctant to pull the trigger and resume trading.
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 0% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-08-04, 01:43 am)
Tuesday, August 2, 2011
2011-08-02nd (Tues)
In the previous trading session I had no positions.
I was 100% in Cash.
In today's trading session all US markets imploded because the Debt Ceiling solution was a compromise deal that both Democrates and Republicans disliked, and worries of global economic slowdown has been moved from the back burner to the front.
Article - "Stocks on long losing streak as economy weakens - Dow falls 265 points; stocks extend losing streak as economy looks weaker by the day"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-on-long-losing-streak-apf-546864801.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=
Although Moody's gave face to Uncle Sam by slapping him on the wrist, China took a more realistic approach and examined the facts then made a judgement call.
Article - "China Rating Agency Downgrades US Debt"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43996450
We may see more of this event unfolding in the days to come.
Bill Gross at PIMCO was interviewed on CNBC today.
My interpretation is he is not buying and holding treasuries in duration for cash flow, but will be trading them for short term profit.
Bill is not going to sit on the side lines and do nothing, he is going to act like who he is for it is in his core DNA and this is too exciting for him to ignore.
Article - "Next Fed Easing to Include Inflation Target: Gross"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43991107
Ultimately as trader only the trades matter.
Our highest risk speculative commodities futures and forex portfolio took a beating that made our heads spin.
Our purchasing power was significantly reduced and we can no longer take liberal shot gun swings at the market, instead we have to veto nine out of ten proposed trades and only take the most confident sniper trade.
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 0% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-08-02, 23:48 pm EST)
I was 100% in Cash.
In today's trading session all US markets imploded because the Debt Ceiling solution was a compromise deal that both Democrates and Republicans disliked, and worries of global economic slowdown has been moved from the back burner to the front.
Article - "Stocks on long losing streak as economy weakens - Dow falls 265 points; stocks extend losing streak as economy looks weaker by the day"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-on-long-losing-streak-apf-546864801.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=
Although Moody's gave face to Uncle Sam by slapping him on the wrist, China took a more realistic approach and examined the facts then made a judgement call.
Article - "China Rating Agency Downgrades US Debt"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43996450
We may see more of this event unfolding in the days to come.
Bill Gross at PIMCO was interviewed on CNBC today.
My interpretation is he is not buying and holding treasuries in duration for cash flow, but will be trading them for short term profit.
Bill is not going to sit on the side lines and do nothing, he is going to act like who he is for it is in his core DNA and this is too exciting for him to ignore.
Article - "Next Fed Easing to Include Inflation Target: Gross"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43991107
Ultimately as trader only the trades matter.
Our highest risk speculative commodities futures and forex portfolio took a beating that made our heads spin.
Our purchasing power was significantly reduced and we can no longer take liberal shot gun swings at the market, instead we have to veto nine out of ten proposed trades and only take the most confident sniper trade.
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 0% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-08-02, 23:48 pm EST)
Monday, August 1, 2011
2011-08-01st (Mon)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
In today's trading session we saw volatility as the US reached a debt and spending deal resolution.
We did some day-trading today as follows;
Sell-To-Open 1,300,000 USDJPY at 77.138 (2011-07-31, 18:18 pm EST)
Sell 100,000 USDJPY at 77.314 (2011-08-01, 05:43 am EST)
Sell 100,000 USDJPY at 77.219 (2011-08-01, 06:41 am EST)
Sell 100,000 USDJPY at 76.983 (2011-08-01, 10:20 am EST)
Sell 300,000 USDJPY at 76.598 (2011-08-01, 11:01 am EST)
Stop Sell-To-Close 300,000 USDCAD at 0.95664 (2011-08-01, 12:56 pm EST) for a loss.
Stop Buy-To-Close 1,600,000 USDJPY at 77.241 (2011-08-01, 13:22 pm EST) for a loss.
This may explain the spike in USDJPY that stopped me out of my position, perhaps due to the magnitude 5.9 earth quake that hit the Honshu coast this morning.
Article - "Japan readying intervention to reverse yen: report"
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/01/businesspro-us-japan-yen-intervention-idUSTRE7704LC20110801
Our two Stop Loss Orders for USDCAD and USDJPY were not set to capture minimum-acceptable-gain, instead were set to preserve account equity.
This will be our greatest learning today, even in days of increased volatility we still have to preserve profits, otherwise we will end up with no profits.
Minimum-Acceptable-Gain Stop Orders are what I must do every time going forward.
After all the activity above we have net zero gains or losses to show for our efforts.
I currently have no positions and am 100% in Cash.
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 0% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-08-01, 13:44 pm EST)
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
In today's trading session we saw volatility as the US reached a debt and spending deal resolution.
We did some day-trading today as follows;
Sell-To-Open 1,300,000 USDJPY at 77.138 (2011-07-31, 18:18 pm EST)
Sell 100,000 USDJPY at 77.314 (2011-08-01, 05:43 am EST)
Sell 100,000 USDJPY at 77.219 (2011-08-01, 06:41 am EST)
Sell 100,000 USDJPY at 76.983 (2011-08-01, 10:20 am EST)
Sell 300,000 USDJPY at 76.598 (2011-08-01, 11:01 am EST)
Stop Sell-To-Close 300,000 USDCAD at 0.95664 (2011-08-01, 12:56 pm EST) for a loss.
Stop Buy-To-Close 1,600,000 USDJPY at 77.241 (2011-08-01, 13:22 pm EST) for a loss.
This may explain the spike in USDJPY that stopped me out of my position, perhaps due to the magnitude 5.9 earth quake that hit the Honshu coast this morning.
Article - "Japan readying intervention to reverse yen: report"
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/01/businesspro-us-japan-yen-intervention-idUSTRE7704LC20110801
Our two Stop Loss Orders for USDCAD and USDJPY were not set to capture minimum-acceptable-gain, instead were set to preserve account equity.
This will be our greatest learning today, even in days of increased volatility we still have to preserve profits, otherwise we will end up with no profits.
Minimum-Acceptable-Gain Stop Orders are what I must do every time going forward.
After all the activity above we have net zero gains or losses to show for our efforts.
I currently have no positions and am 100% in Cash.
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 0% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-08-01, 13:44 pm EST)
Friday, July 29, 2011
2011-07-29th (Fri)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
In today's trading session US Markets continued to fall due to debt-ceiling talks fears and bad GDP numbers.
Article - "National Income and Product Accounts, Gross Domestic Product: Second Quarter 2011 (Advance Estimate), Revised Estimates: 2003 through First Quarter 2011"
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdphighlights.pdf
Traders sold short-term and bought long-term treasuries, bought gold, raised cash.
I am currently watching the debate on Capital Hill as House Republicans attempt to pass the debt legislation proposed by Speaker John Boehner.
JB's legislation has pros and cons, and more negatives in my humble opinion. However, it may be the best idea we have on the table so far to kick the can down the road, and kick the can down the road we must.
Article - "Eurozone inflation unexpectedly falls to 2.5 pct - Eurozone inflation down unexpectedly to 2.5 pct, lowering chance of rate hike in coming months"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Eurozone-inflation-apf-3541779064.html;_ylt=AthPDlyG8Snt7yBjLNyvInmxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlbG1kM211BHBvcwMxNARzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNldXJvem9uZWluZmw-?x=0
Article - "JPMorgan to exit tax lien business - JPMorgan to exit tax lien business it took on with acquisition of Bear Stearns"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/JPMorgan-to-exit-tax-lien-apf-3634708072.html;_ylt=AjVCW1f_3dL0RgnOIznpb3axba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlazU2NnZjBHBvcwM2MwRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNqcG1vcmdhbnRvZXg-?x=0
Article - "Dry streak becoming worrisome for Indiana farmers - Weeks of hot, dry weather across Indiana has farmer becoming worried about success of crops"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Dry-streak-becoming-worrisome-apf-1089405524.html;_ylt=Aknzg8OxMBnXH.IgxfgvAg.xba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlNjg0amJ1BHBvcwM1OQRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNkcnlzdHJlYWtiZWM-?x=0
We did some day-trading today as follows;
Buy-To-Open 25 contracts Dow 30 Index at 12179.10 (2011-07-29, 14:21 pm EST)
Stop Sell-To-Close 25 contracts Dow 30 Index at 12187.00 (2011-07-29, 14:50 pm EST) for an insignificant profit.
Sell-To-Open 45 contracts Dow 30 Index at 12188.80 (2011-07-29, 15:12 pm EST)
Stop Buy-To-Close 45 contracts Dow 30 Index at 12160.80 (2011-07-29, 15:55 pm EST) for a small profit.
My Stop Order for the 25 contract position performed well to alert me of a point-of-inflection, and subsequently allowed me to trade the trend reversal.
My Stop Order for the 45 contract position was set at minimum-acceptable-gain level.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
USDJPY closed at 76.747 (2011-07-29, 17:00 pm EST)
USDCAD closed at 0.95515 (2011-07-29, 17:00 pm EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 1% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-29, 18:35 pm EST)
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
In today's trading session US Markets continued to fall due to debt-ceiling talks fears and bad GDP numbers.
Article - "National Income and Product Accounts, Gross Domestic Product: Second Quarter 2011 (Advance Estimate), Revised Estimates: 2003 through First Quarter 2011"
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdphighlights.pdf
Traders sold short-term and bought long-term treasuries, bought gold, raised cash.
I am currently watching the debate on Capital Hill as House Republicans attempt to pass the debt legislation proposed by Speaker John Boehner.
JB's legislation has pros and cons, and more negatives in my humble opinion. However, it may be the best idea we have on the table so far to kick the can down the road, and kick the can down the road we must.
Article - "Eurozone inflation unexpectedly falls to 2.5 pct - Eurozone inflation down unexpectedly to 2.5 pct, lowering chance of rate hike in coming months"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Eurozone-inflation-apf-3541779064.html;_ylt=AthPDlyG8Snt7yBjLNyvInmxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlbG1kM211BHBvcwMxNARzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNldXJvem9uZWluZmw-?x=0
Article - "JPMorgan to exit tax lien business - JPMorgan to exit tax lien business it took on with acquisition of Bear Stearns"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/JPMorgan-to-exit-tax-lien-apf-3634708072.html;_ylt=AjVCW1f_3dL0RgnOIznpb3axba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlazU2NnZjBHBvcwM2MwRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNqcG1vcmdhbnRvZXg-?x=0
Article - "Dry streak becoming worrisome for Indiana farmers - Weeks of hot, dry weather across Indiana has farmer becoming worried about success of crops"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Dry-streak-becoming-worrisome-apf-1089405524.html;_ylt=Aknzg8OxMBnXH.IgxfgvAg.xba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlNjg0amJ1BHBvcwM1OQRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNkcnlzdHJlYWtiZWM-?x=0
We did some day-trading today as follows;
Buy-To-Open 25 contracts Dow 30 Index at 12179.10 (2011-07-29, 14:21 pm EST)
Stop Sell-To-Close 25 contracts Dow 30 Index at 12187.00 (2011-07-29, 14:50 pm EST) for an insignificant profit.
Sell-To-Open 45 contracts Dow 30 Index at 12188.80 (2011-07-29, 15:12 pm EST)
Stop Buy-To-Close 45 contracts Dow 30 Index at 12160.80 (2011-07-29, 15:55 pm EST) for a small profit.
My Stop Order for the 25 contract position performed well to alert me of a point-of-inflection, and subsequently allowed me to trade the trend reversal.
My Stop Order for the 45 contract position was set at minimum-acceptable-gain level.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
USDJPY closed at 76.747 (2011-07-29, 17:00 pm EST)
USDCAD closed at 0.95515 (2011-07-29, 17:00 pm EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 1% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-29, 18:35 pm EST)
2011-07-28th (Thurs)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
Short 50,000 EURUSD with ACB of 1.45223
In today's trading session US markets initially rallied but lost steam at the end.
Article - "Republicans put off vote on debt limit - Where are the votes? GOP puts off vote on debt bill as leaders fail to find needed support"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Republicans-put-off-vote-on-apf-3590202842.html;_ylt=AqmeIHOqKBXXHySB1xl6bQGxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFkYjcwamRvBHBvcwMxBHNlYwNuZXdzSHViQXJ0aWNsZUxpc3QEc2xrA3JlcHVibGljYW5zcA--?x=0
The one thing we know for certain is that there is uncertainly ahead, and it is the opportunity of a lifetime.
Article - "What Happens If Greece Defaults?"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43425042?slide=1
Article - "What Happens If the US Is Downgraded?"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43909706?slide=1
Article - "Moody’s Blues: Implications of a U.S. Downgrade"
http://www.alterforex.com/moodys-blues-implications-of-a-u-s-downgrade/
We did some day-trading today as follows;
Sell 150,000 EURUSD at 1.43596 (2011-07-28, 03:46 am EST)
Buy-To-Open 25 contracts Dow 30 Index at 12338.80 (2011-07-28, 13:48 pm EST)
Stop Sell-To-Close 25 contracts Dow 30 Index at 12340.00 (2011-07-28, 13:54 pm EST) for an insignificant profit.
Sell-To-Open 25 contracts Dow 30 Index at 12305.60 (2011-07-28, 14:11 pm EST)
Stop Buy-To-Close 25 contracts Dow 30 Index at 12303.00 (2011-07-28, 15:06 pm EST) for an insignificant profit.
Stop Buy-To-Close 200,000 EURUSD at 1.43318 (2011-07-28, 16:51 pm EST) for a small profit.
My Stop Orders for the Dow 30 Index trades were too tight and we missed out on profits.
My Stop Oders for EURUSD were reasonable but could be wider for currency positions.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
USDJPY is currently at 77.512 (2011-07-29, 00:09 am EST)
USDCAD is currently at 0.9505971 (2011-07-29, 00:09 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 1% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-29, 00:09 am EST)
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
Short 50,000 EURUSD with ACB of 1.45223
In today's trading session US markets initially rallied but lost steam at the end.
Article - "Republicans put off vote on debt limit - Where are the votes? GOP puts off vote on debt bill as leaders fail to find needed support"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Republicans-put-off-vote-on-apf-3590202842.html;_ylt=AqmeIHOqKBXXHySB1xl6bQGxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFkYjcwamRvBHBvcwMxBHNlYwNuZXdzSHViQXJ0aWNsZUxpc3QEc2xrA3JlcHVibGljYW5zcA--?x=0
The one thing we know for certain is that there is uncertainly ahead, and it is the opportunity of a lifetime.
Article - "What Happens If Greece Defaults?"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43425042?slide=1
Article - "What Happens If the US Is Downgraded?"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43909706?slide=1
Article - "Moody’s Blues: Implications of a U.S. Downgrade"
http://www.alterforex.com/moodys-blues-implications-of-a-u-s-downgrade/
We did some day-trading today as follows;
Sell 150,000 EURUSD at 1.43596 (2011-07-28, 03:46 am EST)
Buy-To-Open 25 contracts Dow 30 Index at 12338.80 (2011-07-28, 13:48 pm EST)
Stop Sell-To-Close 25 contracts Dow 30 Index at 12340.00 (2011-07-28, 13:54 pm EST) for an insignificant profit.
Sell-To-Open 25 contracts Dow 30 Index at 12305.60 (2011-07-28, 14:11 pm EST)
Stop Buy-To-Close 25 contracts Dow 30 Index at 12303.00 (2011-07-28, 15:06 pm EST) for an insignificant profit.
Stop Buy-To-Close 200,000 EURUSD at 1.43318 (2011-07-28, 16:51 pm EST) for a small profit.
My Stop Orders for the Dow 30 Index trades were too tight and we missed out on profits.
My Stop Oders for EURUSD were reasonable but could be wider for currency positions.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
USDJPY is currently at 77.512 (2011-07-29, 00:09 am EST)
USDCAD is currently at 0.9505971 (2011-07-29, 00:09 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 1% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-29, 00:09 am EST)
Thursday, July 28, 2011
2011-07-27th (Wed)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
In today's trading session US markets fell sharply due to a larger than expected decrease in June Durable Goods orders, and S&P also cut Greece's Credit Rating from CCC to CC with a negative outlook.
Article - "Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders June 2011"
http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf
Article - "Greece suffers new credit downgrade - Standard and Poor's cuts Greece's credit rating by 2 notches to CC"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Greece-suffers-new-credit-apf-1601402412.html;_ylt=AvjL7rb0fTU4h3EpUXLqEsexba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlMmhhM3M3BHBvcwM1NQRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNncmVlY2VzdWZmZXI-?x=0
The daily theatrics of the US Debt Ceiling talks continue, and we can expect markets to continue flip-flopping on each piece of news.
Market technicians are talking about critical market index support levels as markets continue to price in a possible US credit downgrade.
Article - "S&P Stays Mum on Rating for U.S."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903635604576472533411194022.html?ru=yahoo&mod=yahoo_hs
All this is adding to the negative sentiment, and I wonder if this is setting up for the final straw that breaks the camel's back or a big reversal of fortunes.
Ultimately as trader only the trades matter.
We added to our position a bias that the EUR will weaken against the USD as the more uglier contestant in a beauty contest.
Sell-To-Open 50,000 EURUSD at 1.45223 (2011-07-27, 01:21 am EST)
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
Short 50,000 EURUSD with ACB of 1.45223
USDJPY is currently at 77.758 (2011-07-28, 02:01 am EST)
USDCAD is currently at 0.94845 (2011-07-28, 02:01 am EST)
EURUSD is currently at 1.43716 (2011-07-28, 02:01 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 0% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-28, 02:01 am EST)
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
In today's trading session US markets fell sharply due to a larger than expected decrease in June Durable Goods orders, and S&P also cut Greece's Credit Rating from CCC to CC with a negative outlook.
Article - "Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders June 2011"
http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf
Article - "Greece suffers new credit downgrade - Standard and Poor's cuts Greece's credit rating by 2 notches to CC"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Greece-suffers-new-credit-apf-1601402412.html;_ylt=AvjL7rb0fTU4h3EpUXLqEsexba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlMmhhM3M3BHBvcwM1NQRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNncmVlY2VzdWZmZXI-?x=0
The daily theatrics of the US Debt Ceiling talks continue, and we can expect markets to continue flip-flopping on each piece of news.
Market technicians are talking about critical market index support levels as markets continue to price in a possible US credit downgrade.
Article - "S&P Stays Mum on Rating for U.S."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903635604576472533411194022.html?ru=yahoo&mod=yahoo_hs
All this is adding to the negative sentiment, and I wonder if this is setting up for the final straw that breaks the camel's back or a big reversal of fortunes.
Ultimately as trader only the trades matter.
We added to our position a bias that the EUR will weaken against the USD as the more uglier contestant in a beauty contest.
Sell-To-Open 50,000 EURUSD at 1.45223 (2011-07-27, 01:21 am EST)
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
Short 50,000 EURUSD with ACB of 1.45223
USDJPY is currently at 77.758 (2011-07-28, 02:01 am EST)
USDCAD is currently at 0.94845 (2011-07-28, 02:01 am EST)
EURUSD is currently at 1.43716 (2011-07-28, 02:01 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 0% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-28, 02:01 am EST)
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
2011-07-26th (Tues)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
In today's trading session US markets continued to fall due to worse than expected housing data and the impasse of its debt ceiling talks.
Article - "U.S. Housing Prices Rise Slightly, but Remain Weak"
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/27/business/economy/home-prices-ticked-up-in-may.html
Republican John Andrew Boehner continues to battle Democratic President Barack Hussein Obama II in political jousting over the details of the debt deal.
Article - "Boehner delays vote on his debt-ceiling measure - Boehner delays debt measure vote after estimate finds it would cut spending less than thought"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Boehner-delays-vote-on-his-apf-2084906714.html;_ylt=AmmLdjS8mCGLLyVK8MkdP22xba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFkN3RiYzRwBHBvcwMyBHNlYwNuZXdzSHViQXJ0aWNsZUxpc3QEc2xrA2JvZWhuZXJkZWxheQ--?x=0
There is talk that the Credit Rating for the United States of America will be down graded if a satisfactory resolution and a big enough raise of the debt ceiling is not found. This is very similar to the Eurozone situation, there are differences, but there are similarities.
Article - "DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY Debt Limit: Myth v. Fact"
http://www.treasury.gov/initiatives/Documents/Debt%20Limit%20Myth%20v%20Fact%20FINAL.pdf
Article - "Deal or no deal? US downgrade looking likely - Market analysts are beginning to think the US will avoid a default, but lose its AAA rating"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Deal-or-no-deal-US-downgrade-apf-3433492877.html;_ylt=ArFncQ7K6Q.LCyOo319hdpuxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlNTcwc24xBHBvcwM5OQRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNkZWFsb3Jub2RlYWw-?x=0
Today (Tues 07/26th) the Treasury auctioned $35 Billion of 2-year Notes.
Tomorrow (Wed 07/27th) and on Thursday 07/28th the Treasury will continue to auction $64 Billion of 2-year, 5-year, 7-year Notes.
Combined this will bring the Treasury Auction to $99 Billion and all Notes will settle on August 1st, 2011 one day before the deadline.
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/RI/OFAnnce
I expected PIMCO to come out and make some kind of positive commentary to cheer up the market.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
USDJPY is currently at 77.821 (2011-07-27, 00:46 am EST)
USDCAD is currently at 0.94283 (2011-07-27, 00:46 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is -2% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-27, 00:47 am EST)
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
In today's trading session US markets continued to fall due to worse than expected housing data and the impasse of its debt ceiling talks.
Article - "U.S. Housing Prices Rise Slightly, but Remain Weak"
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/27/business/economy/home-prices-ticked-up-in-may.html
Republican John Andrew Boehner continues to battle Democratic President Barack Hussein Obama II in political jousting over the details of the debt deal.
Article - "Boehner delays vote on his debt-ceiling measure - Boehner delays debt measure vote after estimate finds it would cut spending less than thought"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Boehner-delays-vote-on-his-apf-2084906714.html;_ylt=AmmLdjS8mCGLLyVK8MkdP22xba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFkN3RiYzRwBHBvcwMyBHNlYwNuZXdzSHViQXJ0aWNsZUxpc3QEc2xrA2JvZWhuZXJkZWxheQ--?x=0
There is talk that the Credit Rating for the United States of America will be down graded if a satisfactory resolution and a big enough raise of the debt ceiling is not found. This is very similar to the Eurozone situation, there are differences, but there are similarities.
Article - "DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY Debt Limit: Myth v. Fact"
http://www.treasury.gov/initiatives/Documents/Debt%20Limit%20Myth%20v%20Fact%20FINAL.pdf
Article - "Deal or no deal? US downgrade looking likely - Market analysts are beginning to think the US will avoid a default, but lose its AAA rating"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Deal-or-no-deal-US-downgrade-apf-3433492877.html;_ylt=ArFncQ7K6Q.LCyOo319hdpuxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlNTcwc24xBHBvcwM5OQRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNkZWFsb3Jub2RlYWw-?x=0
Today (Tues 07/26th) the Treasury auctioned $35 Billion of 2-year Notes.
Tomorrow (Wed 07/27th) and on Thursday 07/28th the Treasury will continue to auction $64 Billion of 2-year, 5-year, 7-year Notes.
Combined this will bring the Treasury Auction to $99 Billion and all Notes will settle on August 1st, 2011 one day before the deadline.
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/RI/OFAnnce
I expected PIMCO to come out and make some kind of positive commentary to cheer up the market.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
USDJPY is currently at 77.821 (2011-07-27, 00:46 am EST)
USDCAD is currently at 0.94283 (2011-07-27, 00:46 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is -2% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-27, 00:47 am EST)
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
2011-07-25th (Mon)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
In today's trading session US markets fell mostly due to the impasse of its debt ceiling talks.
Article - "Obama: Halt '3-ring-circus,' avert US default - Obama appeals for debt-limit compromise; Boehner says GOP sticks by its spending-cuts bill"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Obama-Halt-3ringcircus-avert-apf-2668049096.html;_ylt=AudBjPatxYHwgqCPOp.yFhSxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFkdjM1NzZtBHBvcwM1BHNlYwNuZXdzSHViQXJ0aWNsZUxpc3QEc2xrA29iYW1haGFsdDMtcg--?x=0
Europe's debt problem although much larger than the US will take a back seat until August 2nd, and some are saying the deadline may be pushed further to August 15th.
Article - "Europe’s Troubled Economies Join the Rescue Team"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43880026//
Our portfolio equity continues to decline as the US Dollar weakens against the JPY beyond Year 1995 levels, and the US Dollar weakens against the CAD approaching Year 2007 lows.
This week will be a full testing of our resolve as we wait for events to unfold.
Article - "Preparing for worst as debt-limit talks drag on - With debt-ceiling deal elusive, investors look for hiding places, and find precious few"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Preparing-for-worst-as-apf-745849065.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=
Our Stakeholders are divided in opinion, and understandably so given the circumstances. In my experience when emotions run high it is a sign that the market is about to turn. In this case we have a date of August 2nd to look forward to if it does not get extended to August 15th.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
USDJPY is currently at 78.035 (2011-07-26, 02:04 am EST)
USDCAD is currently at 0.94407 (2011-07-26, 02:04 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 0% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-26, 02:05 am EST)
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
In today's trading session US markets fell mostly due to the impasse of its debt ceiling talks.
Article - "Obama: Halt '3-ring-circus,' avert US default - Obama appeals for debt-limit compromise; Boehner says GOP sticks by its spending-cuts bill"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Obama-Halt-3ringcircus-avert-apf-2668049096.html;_ylt=AudBjPatxYHwgqCPOp.yFhSxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFkdjM1NzZtBHBvcwM1BHNlYwNuZXdzSHViQXJ0aWNsZUxpc3QEc2xrA29iYW1haGFsdDMtcg--?x=0
Europe's debt problem although much larger than the US will take a back seat until August 2nd, and some are saying the deadline may be pushed further to August 15th.
Article - "Europe’s Troubled Economies Join the Rescue Team"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43880026//
Our portfolio equity continues to decline as the US Dollar weakens against the JPY beyond Year 1995 levels, and the US Dollar weakens against the CAD approaching Year 2007 lows.
This week will be a full testing of our resolve as we wait for events to unfold.
Article - "Preparing for worst as debt-limit talks drag on - With debt-ceiling deal elusive, investors look for hiding places, and find precious few"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Preparing-for-worst-as-apf-745849065.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=
Our Stakeholders are divided in opinion, and understandably so given the circumstances. In my experience when emotions run high it is a sign that the market is about to turn. In this case we have a date of August 2nd to look forward to if it does not get extended to August 15th.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
USDJPY is currently at 78.035 (2011-07-26, 02:04 am EST)
USDCAD is currently at 0.94407 (2011-07-26, 02:04 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 0% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-26, 02:05 am EST)
Friday, July 22, 2011
2011-07-22nd (Fri)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
In today's trading session technology stocks led the rise in NASDAQ.
So far US corporate earnings are not skewed to the good or bad side, and to some analysts that is a surprise, for there is legitimate concern that earnings down the road may suffer.
I acknowledge the US economy is not at its best now, but I believe the US people have the resolve to pull out of their bad situation. For this reason we continue to invest in their market with reduced exposure but would never pull out completely.
We continue to Long USD against CAD and JPY when both economies are at an advantage over the US now. The media is building up to a climax of negativity and this sentiment is hard to ignore, but examining my previous notes and data points continue to point me to the same trade decisions.
I may not be able to correctly derive the direction of the currency pairs on a daily basis, and I wonder if there is on Earth any trader that can do so. Therefore I continue to management my total value at risk levels so daily fluctuations do no destroy our equity completely, and accumulate positions slowly to a maximum acceptable amount.
Next week is opportunity for some wild swings in the USD, today seems to have hit the point where negotiating parties leave the table due to frustration. For me it means taking time off for each party to find ways to save face and come back together later, and before Aug 2nd.
Article - "Boehner withdraws from debt talks with Obama - Talks off: Boehner says 'couldn't connect' with WH; Obama says GOP must find default solution"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Boehner-withdraws-from-debt-apf-3051861922.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=
We are positioned to gain nicely if US Debt Ceiling talks turn well, if they do not our exposure will not ruin us either.
In other news, the daily speculative theatrics continue, and we can expect markets to continue flip-flopping on each piece of news.
Article - "Dollar up against euro as aid plan digested - Dollar regains some ground against euro as investors mull impact of Greek aid deal"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Dollar-up-against-euro-as-aid-apf-3133313699.html;_ylt=As1hMOeXYaTHpjgB7ikb5Wuxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlMDhhaWFjBHBvcwM5NQRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNkb2xsYXJ1cGFnYWk-?x=0
Article - "Oil settles near $100 - Oil settles near $100 a barrel on US debt issue, 2nd Greece bailout deal reached"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Oil-settles-near-apf-1930874315.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
USDJPY closed at 78.525 (2011-07-22, 22:01 pm EST)
USDCAD closed at 0.94765 (2011-07-22, 22:01 pm EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 5% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
I will use the weekend to recage and refocus on strategy and risk management.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-22, 22:09 pm EST)
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
In today's trading session technology stocks led the rise in NASDAQ.
So far US corporate earnings are not skewed to the good or bad side, and to some analysts that is a surprise, for there is legitimate concern that earnings down the road may suffer.
I acknowledge the US economy is not at its best now, but I believe the US people have the resolve to pull out of their bad situation. For this reason we continue to invest in their market with reduced exposure but would never pull out completely.
We continue to Long USD against CAD and JPY when both economies are at an advantage over the US now. The media is building up to a climax of negativity and this sentiment is hard to ignore, but examining my previous notes and data points continue to point me to the same trade decisions.
I may not be able to correctly derive the direction of the currency pairs on a daily basis, and I wonder if there is on Earth any trader that can do so. Therefore I continue to management my total value at risk levels so daily fluctuations do no destroy our equity completely, and accumulate positions slowly to a maximum acceptable amount.
Next week is opportunity for some wild swings in the USD, today seems to have hit the point where negotiating parties leave the table due to frustration. For me it means taking time off for each party to find ways to save face and come back together later, and before Aug 2nd.
Article - "Boehner withdraws from debt talks with Obama - Talks off: Boehner says 'couldn't connect' with WH; Obama says GOP must find default solution"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Boehner-withdraws-from-debt-apf-3051861922.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=
We are positioned to gain nicely if US Debt Ceiling talks turn well, if they do not our exposure will not ruin us either.
In other news, the daily speculative theatrics continue, and we can expect markets to continue flip-flopping on each piece of news.
Article - "Dollar up against euro as aid plan digested - Dollar regains some ground against euro as investors mull impact of Greek aid deal"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Dollar-up-against-euro-as-aid-apf-3133313699.html;_ylt=As1hMOeXYaTHpjgB7ikb5Wuxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlMDhhaWFjBHBvcwM5NQRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNkb2xsYXJ1cGFnYWk-?x=0
Article - "Oil settles near $100 - Oil settles near $100 a barrel on US debt issue, 2nd Greece bailout deal reached"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Oil-settles-near-apf-1930874315.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
USDJPY closed at 78.525 (2011-07-22, 22:01 pm EST)
USDCAD closed at 0.94765 (2011-07-22, 22:01 pm EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 5% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
I will use the weekend to recage and refocus on strategy and risk management.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-22, 22:09 pm EST)
2011-07-21st (Thurs)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
The time is now 07/22nd (Fri) 12:43 pm.
Last night I suddenly felt the overwhelming effects of heat-stroke accumulated from running around the city this week, and immediately went to rest instead of risking it.
So was not able to write yesterday's report until now, sorry for the delay.
The sentiment in last night's 07/21st (Thurs) afterhours trading session and futures indicators going into today was anticipation of market reaction to the newest incarnation of the Greece Bailout package.
North American markets today 07/22nd (Fri) so far are not over-reacting perhaps due to desensitization or more concerned about its own Debt Ceiling problems.
We should expect markets to continue flip-flopping on each piece of news
Our Stakeholders agreed on Wed 20th to maintain our postions until August 2nd, although each day brings mixed roller-coaster emotions.
I remind myself running OPM (Other People's Money) requires more than usual Mental Capital especially since our Portfolio is fighting itself back up to its High Water Mark.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
USDJPY is currently 78.458 (2011-07-22, 13:00 am EST)
USDCAD is currently 0.94896 (2011-07-22, 13:00 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 5% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-22, 13:02 am EST)
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
The time is now 07/22nd (Fri) 12:43 pm.
Last night I suddenly felt the overwhelming effects of heat-stroke accumulated from running around the city this week, and immediately went to rest instead of risking it.
So was not able to write yesterday's report until now, sorry for the delay.
The sentiment in last night's 07/21st (Thurs) afterhours trading session and futures indicators going into today was anticipation of market reaction to the newest incarnation of the Greece Bailout package.
North American markets today 07/22nd (Fri) so far are not over-reacting perhaps due to desensitization or more concerned about its own Debt Ceiling problems.
We should expect markets to continue flip-flopping on each piece of news
Our Stakeholders agreed on Wed 20th to maintain our postions until August 2nd, although each day brings mixed roller-coaster emotions.
I remind myself running OPM (Other People's Money) requires more than usual Mental Capital especially since our Portfolio is fighting itself back up to its High Water Mark.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
USDJPY is currently 78.458 (2011-07-22, 13:00 am EST)
USDCAD is currently 0.94896 (2011-07-22, 13:00 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 5% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-22, 13:02 am EST)
Thursday, July 21, 2011
2011-07-20th (Wed)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
In today's trading session US markets failed to rally on yesterday's positive earnings.
We should expect markets to continue flip-flopping on each piece of news.
Article - "Stocks dip after biggest day in a year - Concerns about raising the debt limit overshadow stronger earnings and merger news"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-dip-after-biggest-day-apf-2370212205.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=
Our highest risk speculative portfolio continues to decline in equity value as the US Dollar weakened against the CAD and JPY.
Our Stakeholders agreed to maintain our postions until August 2nd.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
USDJPY is currently 78.691 (2011-07-21, 00:05 am EST)
USDCAD is currently 0.94632 (2011-07-21, 00:05 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 5% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-21, 00:06 am EST)
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
In today's trading session US markets failed to rally on yesterday's positive earnings.
We should expect markets to continue flip-flopping on each piece of news.
Article - "Stocks dip after biggest day in a year - Concerns about raising the debt limit overshadow stronger earnings and merger news"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-dip-after-biggest-day-apf-2370212205.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=
Our highest risk speculative portfolio continues to decline in equity value as the US Dollar weakened against the CAD and JPY.
Our Stakeholders agreed to maintain our postions until August 2nd.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
USDJPY is currently 78.691 (2011-07-21, 00:05 am EST)
USDCAD is currently 0.94632 (2011-07-21, 00:05 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 5% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-21, 00:06 am EST)
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
2011-07-19th (Tues)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 200,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96322
In today's trading session US markets found a reason to rally and tommorrow may continue to rally on positive Coca-Cola, IBM, blow out Apple earnings.
Article - "Stocks rebound on earnings, debt-limit proposal - Strong earnings from Coke, IBM send stocks up; Dow jumps 202, its biggest gain this year"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-rebound-on-earnings-apf-595594205.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=
We should expect markets to continue flip-flopping on each piece of news.
In today's Bank of Canada policy announcement it held interest rates constant but with a hawkish position suggesting an interest rate hike next time on Wed Sept 7th, 2011.
To hedge my existing Long USDCAD position I added a Long WTI Crude Oil position to my portfolio.
Buy-To-Open 5 contracts WTI Crude Oil Sep 2011 at 96.360 (2011-07-19, 02:14 am EST)
Buy 5 contracts WTI Crude Oil Sep 2011 at 97.150 (2011-07-19, 03:40 am EST)
Stop Loss Orders were placed accordingly but too tight and I was stopped out at a small profit.
Sell-To-Close 10 contracts WTI Crude Oil Sep 2011 at 97.010 (2011-07-19, 05:53 am EST) for a small profit.
I reviewed this trade with my Coach and understood that I would not have placed my Stop Loss at a lower level as I had demanded a minimum profit for my trade.
Thus there is no significant learning, except if I was mentally willing to place future Stop Losses at break-even point, but never at negative equity for that would imply I should have waited for a lower entry-point.
USDCAD fell as expected and I added slightly to my Long position.
Buy 100,000 USDCAD at 0.95100 (2011-07-19, 08:59 am EST)
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
USDJPY is currently 79.142 (2011-07-20, 00:40 am EST)
USDCAD is currently 0.95067 (2011-07-20, 00:40 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 10% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-20, 00:41 am EST)
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 200,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96322
In today's trading session US markets found a reason to rally and tommorrow may continue to rally on positive Coca-Cola, IBM, blow out Apple earnings.
Article - "Stocks rebound on earnings, debt-limit proposal - Strong earnings from Coke, IBM send stocks up; Dow jumps 202, its biggest gain this year"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-rebound-on-earnings-apf-595594205.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=
We should expect markets to continue flip-flopping on each piece of news.
In today's Bank of Canada policy announcement it held interest rates constant but with a hawkish position suggesting an interest rate hike next time on Wed Sept 7th, 2011.
To hedge my existing Long USDCAD position I added a Long WTI Crude Oil position to my portfolio.
Buy-To-Open 5 contracts WTI Crude Oil Sep 2011 at 96.360 (2011-07-19, 02:14 am EST)
Buy 5 contracts WTI Crude Oil Sep 2011 at 97.150 (2011-07-19, 03:40 am EST)
Stop Loss Orders were placed accordingly but too tight and I was stopped out at a small profit.
Sell-To-Close 10 contracts WTI Crude Oil Sep 2011 at 97.010 (2011-07-19, 05:53 am EST) for a small profit.
I reviewed this trade with my Coach and understood that I would not have placed my Stop Loss at a lower level as I had demanded a minimum profit for my trade.
Thus there is no significant learning, except if I was mentally willing to place future Stop Losses at break-even point, but never at negative equity for that would imply I should have waited for a lower entry-point.
USDCAD fell as expected and I added slightly to my Long position.
Buy 100,000 USDCAD at 0.95100 (2011-07-19, 08:59 am EST)
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 300,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.95915
USDJPY is currently 79.142 (2011-07-20, 00:40 am EST)
USDCAD is currently 0.95067 (2011-07-20, 00:40 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 10% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-20, 00:41 am EST)
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
2011-07-18th (Mon)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 200,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96322
In today's trading session US markets fell on concerns of the US debt ceiling and European debt crisis.
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
We should expect markets to continue flip-flopping on each piece of news
Article - "Fears about debt send gold price to record - Investors searching for safety push gold to record price above $1,600 per ounce"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fears-about-debt-send-gold-apf-2055958735.html;_ylt=Ao.LZiBvD16Pp3lnIjNFGf.xba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlNzhwY2hnBHBvcwM5NQRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNmZWFyc2Fib3V0ZGU-?x=0
Article - "Sovereign Credit-Default Swaps"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38451750
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 200,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96322
USDJPY is currently 79.063 (2011-07-19, 01:11 am EST)
USDCAD is currently 0.95887 (2011-07-19, 01:11 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 11% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-19, 01:11 am EST)
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 200,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96322
In today's trading session US markets fell on concerns of the US debt ceiling and European debt crisis.
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
We should expect markets to continue flip-flopping on each piece of news
Article - "Fears about debt send gold price to record - Investors searching for safety push gold to record price above $1,600 per ounce"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fears-about-debt-send-gold-apf-2055958735.html;_ylt=Ao.LZiBvD16Pp3lnIjNFGf.xba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlNzhwY2hnBHBvcwM5NQRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNmZWFyc2Fib3V0ZGU-?x=0
Article - "Sovereign Credit-Default Swaps"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38451750
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 200,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96322
USDJPY is currently 79.063 (2011-07-19, 01:11 am EST)
USDCAD is currently 0.95887 (2011-07-19, 01:11 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 11% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-19, 01:11 am EST)
Saturday, July 16, 2011
2011-07-15th (Fri)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 200,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96322
In today's trading session US markets rose.
We had positive earnings from Google, and we had negative news of European bank stress testing.
Markets will continue to flip-flop on each piece of news regarding the national debt ceiling.
I found the following article on the purchase of farm land for investment purpose, and it is not to build homes, but for agricultural commodity speculation.
Article - "Down on the farm, investors see big potential - As food prices rise, investors plow money into Midwestern farms -- but is it a bucolic bubble?"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Down-on-the-farm-investors-apf-2437798760.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 200,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96322
USDJPY closed 79.119 (2011-07-16, 00:51 am EST)
USDCAD closed 0.95307 (2011-07-16, 00:51 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 10% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-16, 00:52 am EST)
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 200,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96322
In today's trading session US markets rose.
We had positive earnings from Google, and we had negative news of European bank stress testing.
Markets will continue to flip-flop on each piece of news regarding the national debt ceiling.
I found the following article on the purchase of farm land for investment purpose, and it is not to build homes, but for agricultural commodity speculation.
Article - "Down on the farm, investors see big potential - As food prices rise, investors plow money into Midwestern farms -- but is it a bucolic bubble?"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Down-on-the-farm-investors-apf-2437798760.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 200,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96322
USDJPY closed 79.119 (2011-07-16, 00:51 am EST)
USDCAD closed 0.95307 (2011-07-16, 00:51 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 10% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-16, 00:52 am EST)
Friday, July 15, 2011
2011-07-14th (Thurs) - Quantitative Easing III (QE3)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 200,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96322
In today's trading session US markets fell on Ben Bernanke's claim that there will not be any Quantitative Easing III (QE3).
This was a 180 degree turn from Bernanke's speech yesterday, and market participant's heads are still spinning from his abrupt turn about.
The reason is the US wants to maintain a Strong US Dollar policy, and we now have solid empirical evidence from the markets reaction and Ben Bernanke as evidenced on Tues 07/12th, Wed 07/13th, Thurs 07/14th to fall back on in our future trades.
Article - "Bernanke: No Plans to Add New Stimulus Measures Now"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43754917
Article - "S&P warns it may downgrade US credit rating - S&P warns it may downgrade US credit rating because of debt ceiling impasse"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/SampP-warns-it-may-downgrade-apf-3001686388.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=
Article - "Global Food Inflation to Return After Brief Respite"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43762905
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 200,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96322
USDJPY is currently 79.156 (2011-07-15, 00:11 am EST)
USDCAD is currently 0.95960 (2011-07-15, 00:11 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 13% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-15, 00:12 am EST)
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 200,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96322
In today's trading session US markets fell on Ben Bernanke's claim that there will not be any Quantitative Easing III (QE3).
This was a 180 degree turn from Bernanke's speech yesterday, and market participant's heads are still spinning from his abrupt turn about.
The reason is the US wants to maintain a Strong US Dollar policy, and we now have solid empirical evidence from the markets reaction and Ben Bernanke as evidenced on Tues 07/12th, Wed 07/13th, Thurs 07/14th to fall back on in our future trades.
Article - "Bernanke: No Plans to Add New Stimulus Measures Now"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43754917
Article - "S&P warns it may downgrade US credit rating - S&P warns it may downgrade US credit rating because of debt ceiling impasse"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/SampP-warns-it-may-downgrade-apf-3001686388.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=
Article - "Global Food Inflation to Return After Brief Respite"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43762905
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 200,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96322
USDJPY is currently 79.156 (2011-07-15, 00:11 am EST)
USDCAD is currently 0.95960 (2011-07-15, 00:11 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 13% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-15, 00:12 am EST)
Thursday, July 14, 2011
2011-07-13th (Wed) - Quantitative Easing III (QE3)
At the end of the previous trading session I had the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 200,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96322
In today's trading session US markets rallied on Ben Bernanke's speech but gave back some of their gains at the close for an overall up day.
Article - "Bernanke: Fed ready to act if economy worsens - Bernanke lays out options for new Fed action and warns Congress about danger of default"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Bernanke-Fed-ready-to-act-if-apf-1990658503.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=
Essentially the message is... Helicopter Ben is back!
For I am not aware of any major deviation from the standard Fiscal & Monetary Policy Playbook that the current condition of the US economy can take without poisoning itself.
I want to reiterate an article I quoted on (2011-06-27th (Mon)) and (2011-07-12th (Tues) - Quantitative Easing III (QE3)) below.
"While the $600 billion purchase program, known as QE2, winds down, the Fed said June 22 that it will continue to buy Treasuries with proceeds from the maturing debt it currently owns. That could mean purchases of as much as $300 billion of government debt over the next 12 months without adding money to the financial system."
Article - "Fed May Buy $300 Billion in Treasuries After QE2"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fed-May-Buy-300-Billion-in-bloomberg-1457319130.html;_ylt=Ak2_x5xz6bQMxVJZfJMT5vS7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1aWZlcGNuBHBvcwM0BHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNmZWRtYXlidXkzMDA-?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=
Bernanke says this maneuver of buying back matured bonds does not add money into the system and will not increase money supply.
So what will the Chinese do?
Will they slowly sell their vast holdings of US Treasuries to create a long-term negative pressure on the US Dollar as they add to the aggregate supply of US Dollars to the markets?
Article - "Researcher: China worried about US economy - Researcher: China worried about state of US economy, closely watching whether QE3 launched"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Researcher-China-worried-apf-2605871979.html;_ylt=Aoz7vss4XD.CyAGfkifSxnuxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFka2lsM2VuBHBvcwM0BHNlYwNuZXdzSHViQXJ0aWNsZUxpc3QEc2xrA3Jlc2VhcmNoZXJjaA--?x=0
I believe through a serious of events this will lead to a net increase in aggregate demand for US Dollars and a Stronger US Dollar, and perhaps my Thesis will become a hotly debated issue soon.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 200,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96322
USDJPY is currently 78.746 (2011-07-14, 03:06 am EST)
USDCAD is currently 0.96005 (2011-07-14, 03:06 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 11% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-14, 03:06 am EST)
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 200,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96322
In today's trading session US markets rallied on Ben Bernanke's speech but gave back some of their gains at the close for an overall up day.
Article - "Bernanke: Fed ready to act if economy worsens - Bernanke lays out options for new Fed action and warns Congress about danger of default"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Bernanke-Fed-ready-to-act-if-apf-1990658503.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=
Essentially the message is... Helicopter Ben is back!
For I am not aware of any major deviation from the standard Fiscal & Monetary Policy Playbook that the current condition of the US economy can take without poisoning itself.
I want to reiterate an article I quoted on (2011-06-27th (Mon)) and (2011-07-12th (Tues) - Quantitative Easing III (QE3)) below.
"While the $600 billion purchase program, known as QE2, winds down, the Fed said June 22 that it will continue to buy Treasuries with proceeds from the maturing debt it currently owns. That could mean purchases of as much as $300 billion of government debt over the next 12 months without adding money to the financial system."
Article - "Fed May Buy $300 Billion in Treasuries After QE2"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fed-May-Buy-300-Billion-in-bloomberg-1457319130.html;_ylt=Ak2_x5xz6bQMxVJZfJMT5vS7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1aWZlcGNuBHBvcwM0BHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNmZWRtYXlidXkzMDA-?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=
Bernanke says this maneuver of buying back matured bonds does not add money into the system and will not increase money supply.
So what will the Chinese do?
Will they slowly sell their vast holdings of US Treasuries to create a long-term negative pressure on the US Dollar as they add to the aggregate supply of US Dollars to the markets?
Article - "Researcher: China worried about US economy - Researcher: China worried about state of US economy, closely watching whether QE3 launched"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Researcher-China-worried-apf-2605871979.html;_ylt=Aoz7vss4XD.CyAGfkifSxnuxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFka2lsM2VuBHBvcwM0BHNlYwNuZXdzSHViQXJ0aWNsZUxpc3QEc2xrA3Jlc2VhcmNoZXJjaA--?x=0
I believe through a serious of events this will lead to a net increase in aggregate demand for US Dollars and a Stronger US Dollar, and perhaps my Thesis will become a hotly debated issue soon.
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 200,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96322
USDJPY is currently 78.746 (2011-07-14, 03:06 am EST)
USDCAD is currently 0.96005 (2011-07-14, 03:06 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 11% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-14, 03:06 am EST)
Wednesday, July 13, 2011
2011-07-12th (Tues) - Quantitative Easing III (QE3)
At the end of the previous trading session I had no positions.
I was in 100% Cash.
In today's trading session all US markets continued to fall on worries of PIIGS debt worries, despite some predictable US company earnings.
Article - "Fed divided over more stimulus as economy weakens - Fed officials worried about US jobless, but divided over whether to consider more stimulus"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fed-divided-over-more-apf-1741332027.html;_ylt=AnSls39_gJOVQJlZPi7e4iyxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlNGl2dm44BHBvcwM5MwRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNmZWRkaXZpZGVkb3Y-?x=0
While the $600 billion purchase program, known as QE2, winds down, the Fed said June 22 that it will continue to buy Treasuries with proceeds from the maturing debt it currently owns. That could mean purchases of as much as $300 billion of government debt over the next 12 months without adding money to the financial system.
Article - "Fed May Buy $300 Billion in Treasuries After QE2"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fed-May-Buy-300-Billion-in-bloomberg-1457319130.html;_ylt=Ak2_x5xz6bQMxVJZfJMT5vS7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1aWZlcGNuBHBvcwM0BHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNmZWRtYXlidXkzMDA-?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode
The spreads of debt in PIIGS countries continue to widen.
Article - "Sovereign Credit-Default Swaps"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38451750
Bill Gross of Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) was reported to be Long US Treasurys.
Article - "PIMCO's Gross Raises US Treasurys in Flagship Fund"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43733676
As circumstances change so does his investment strategy.
Article - "Everyone on Wall Street Agrees with Bill Gross: Short Treasuries"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42536993
Article - "China Secures First Top Post at IMF"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43733101
Article - "China's economic growth eases amid rate hikes - China's economic growth eases to 9.5 percent amid rate hikes, anti-inflation battle"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Chinas-economic-growth-eases-apf-2533726777.html;_ylt=AnnaPku53RauMVXE19iq0Yixba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFkZ2hkZjIwBHBvcwM0BHNlYwNuZXdzSHViQXJ0aWNsZUxpc3QEc2xrA2NoaW5hc2Vjb25vbQ--?x=0
Ultimately as a trader, only the trades matter.
I am cautiously looking for the US Dollar to strenghten in the short-term as a flight to safety.
Buy-To-Open 300,000 USDJPY at 79.438 (2011-07-12, 22:03 pm EST)
Buy-To-Open 200,000 USDCAD at 0.96322 (2011-07-12, 23:09 pm EST)
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 200,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96322
USDJPY is currently 79.510 (2011-07-13, 01:21 am EST)
USDCAD is currently 0.96317 (2011-07-13, 01:21 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 16% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-13, 01:22 am EST)
I was in 100% Cash.
In today's trading session all US markets continued to fall on worries of PIIGS debt worries, despite some predictable US company earnings.
Article - "Fed divided over more stimulus as economy weakens - Fed officials worried about US jobless, but divided over whether to consider more stimulus"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fed-divided-over-more-apf-1741332027.html;_ylt=AnSls39_gJOVQJlZPi7e4iyxba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlNGl2dm44BHBvcwM5MwRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNmZWRkaXZpZGVkb3Y-?x=0
While the $600 billion purchase program, known as QE2, winds down, the Fed said June 22 that it will continue to buy Treasuries with proceeds from the maturing debt it currently owns. That could mean purchases of as much as $300 billion of government debt over the next 12 months without adding money to the financial system.
Article - "Fed May Buy $300 Billion in Treasuries After QE2"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fed-May-Buy-300-Billion-in-bloomberg-1457319130.html;_ylt=Ak2_x5xz6bQMxVJZfJMT5vS7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1aWZlcGNuBHBvcwM0BHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNmZWRtYXlidXkzMDA-?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode
The spreads of debt in PIIGS countries continue to widen.
Article - "Sovereign Credit-Default Swaps"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38451750
Bill Gross of Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) was reported to be Long US Treasurys.
Article - "PIMCO's Gross Raises US Treasurys in Flagship Fund"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43733676
As circumstances change so does his investment strategy.
Article - "Everyone on Wall Street Agrees with Bill Gross: Short Treasuries"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42536993
Article - "China Secures First Top Post at IMF"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43733101
Article - "China's economic growth eases amid rate hikes - China's economic growth eases to 9.5 percent amid rate hikes, anti-inflation battle"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Chinas-economic-growth-eases-apf-2533726777.html;_ylt=AnnaPku53RauMVXE19iq0Yixba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFkZ2hkZjIwBHBvcwM0BHNlYwNuZXdzSHViQXJ0aWNsZUxpc3QEc2xrA2NoaW5hc2Vjb25vbQ--?x=0
Ultimately as a trader, only the trades matter.
I am cautiously looking for the US Dollar to strenghten in the short-term as a flight to safety.
Buy-To-Open 300,000 USDJPY at 79.438 (2011-07-12, 22:03 pm EST)
Buy-To-Open 200,000 USDCAD at 0.96322 (2011-07-12, 23:09 pm EST)
Currently I have the following positions;
Long 300,000 USDJPY with ACB of 79.438
Long 200,000 USDCAD with ACB of 0.96322
USDJPY is currently 79.510 (2011-07-13, 01:21 am EST)
USDCAD is currently 0.96317 (2011-07-13, 01:21 am EST)
Our first line of credit was activated on 2011-06-16th (Thurs) and our second line of credit was activated on 2011-06-29th (Wed).
Total equity is 16% of June 1st and we are committed to trade ourselves back to our High Water Mark.
Stay Tuned,
Jeff
(2011-07-13, 01:22 am EST)
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