2011-03-31

I was at LB's seminar tonight and it was entertaining and educational as usual.  He had an earlier session for existing clients on the 2nd floor followed by the general public session on the ground floor.  The room was filled with two types of people; older folks whom I think must be his existing clients, and a younger and more ethnically diverse crowd and I would be one of those.  LB started off with his personal story, threw in some interesting personal experience stories, some interesting business and career experience stories, and it was all very personal and approachable.  I have always enjoyed watching his TV show as well as seen him speak in public a few times and I still admire and have a lot of respect for his knowledge and experience he brings to the industry through his self-study, hard work, and value-added to his clients.  One member of the audience did ask LB for his portfolio results in 2008, 2009, 2010, and LB gave a decent answer although unless LB was being extremely humble, he left me with the impression our firm did far better than him in 2008, 2009.  For 2010 I am not sure, for you cannot tell until you look at the actual numbers, so I could be wrong in speculation what and how his clients made out.

I agree with LB's point that most bank and fund company managers may not have the highest incentive to outperform or strive for alpha, although there are some who do.  Depending on their compensation plan it may be the case some who run money prefer not to err and be fired, than to stick their necks out and take the riskier plays that can achieve a superior return.  Simply slightly out-perform whatever set benchmark to their fund by a small 50 bps and that will ensure their annual performance bonus.

Currently I have the following positions;
Long 50 contracts Copper May 2011 with ACB of 437.88
Short 100000 USDJPY with ACB of 82.458
Short 1300 contracts Nikkei 225 with ACB of 9557.38

Copper May 2011 is currently at 425.50 (2011-04-01, 04:37 am EST)
USDJPY is currently at 83.701 (2011-04-01, 04:37 am EST)
Nikkei 225 closed the week at 9712.8 (2011-04-01, 04:38 am EST)

No action required I stand firm on all three Thesis.  Although I did ask LB earlier about USDJPY he is of the opinion one should be Long and not Short because USD is poised for a temporary strengthening aginst the Yen and so far the markets are proving LB to be right, hats off to LB.  However, I am not taking my trade off.

I am entirely wrong on Wheat for the stock-pile numbers were released this afternoon and were extremely low, Wheat opened Limit-Up to 771.75.  Currently Wheat May 2011 is 760.25 (2011-04-01, 04:47 am EST).  Itching to Short, but no available margin.

Tomorrow Fri 04/01st I am at an all day conference with no access to my trading platform, this is not a good practice especially with three losing positions running.  I thought of not going to the conference but I have promised people I would be there to help out and it is important I honour my word to myself and to them.

Stay Tuned for Sunday night's commentary then.  Get some rest guys.

Jeff
(2011-04-01, 04:54 am EST)