2011-04-18th (Mon)

I am excited, because there is volatility in the markets.

This morning S&P cut its outlook on US debt rating from stable to negative.  This is not new news but in fact has been circulating for months now.  Since the US must raise its $14.3T debt ceiling by May 16th there is growing concern because of the grid lock in Congress thus the markets are reacting to S&P today.  Moody's has said nothing... yet?

Studying US economic history the country has never reneged on its debt obligations.  Greece has defaulted at least five times and so one should worry more about their situation, some may argue the markets have already digested the information.

Time will tell if I am right or wrong in my analysis, and I stress that I only need to be right short-term.  As stated in past reports I believe the graph is from lower-left to upper-right long-term, but it is by the shortest time-frame price oscillations that I make my living.

I salute Bill at pacific investment management for getting out of his positions in March, his research people have a better finger on the numbers for they have a department with serious education degrees tracking each issue.  Bill may even have a better count on M3 than shadow statistics.

So what does all that mean for our portfolios?  That is the question.  It is a waste of my time to write any detailed analysis for there will be many people doing that online and on TV.

Buy-To-Open 10 contracts Copper May 2011 at 422.23 (2011-04-18, 18:08 pm EST) as a begining position with the intention to accumulate.

The charts have not yet shown a point-of-inflection, I am stepping on the gas well before the track-out point and going into the turn without even trail braking to the apex.  I am doing this trade because people shoot first and then ask questions, and because I have closed out all my positions last night and have full available margin to pile on and pile on and pile on.

Currently I have the following positions;
Long 10 contracts Copper May 2011 with ACB of 422.23

Copper is currently trading at 421.75 (2011-04-18, 19:03 pm EST)

Stay Tuned,

Jeff
(2011-04-18, 19:03 pm EST)