2011-04-06th (Wed)

During today's 2011-04-06th (Wed) regular trading session I searched for volatility but could not find any vehicle that showed indication that it would break out of its implied range.  Thus I opened no new positions.

I met with a wholesaler in the precious metals space and he was extremely bullish on the commodities not because he is in the business of representing those instruments, but because he had a legitimate long-term bullish macro-economic outlook.

I agree with him that the graph is long-term trending from bottom-left low to top-right high, but it is the finer resolution time-frame movements that I try to capture and profit from.  Some say it is skill, while the consistently correct will claim it is strong efficient market hypothesis at work.

I am a student of both disciplines and some will comment that is an oxymoron, I reply that when I am wrong I feel like the prefix is removed from the aforementioned figure of speech.

Currently I am in such a state of being for having the following positions;
Long 50 contracts Copper May 2011 with ACB of 437.88
Short 100000 USDJPY with ACB of 82.458
Short 1300 contracts Nikkei 225 with ACB of 9557.38

Copper May 2011 is currently at 435.30 (2011-04-07, 01:42 am EST)
USDJPY is currently at 85.172 (2011-04-07, 01:42 am EST)
Nikkei 225 is currently at 9600.80 (2011-04-07, 01:42 am EST)

All three prices have come closer to my range, yet all three are still out of the money.

Of special concern to me is Copper May 2011 currently 435.18 (2011-04-07, 01:44 am EST) as I examined the Daily Candles  there is recently price-action history to hint that the fast approaching Friday or next Monday may be a big reversal to the down side to bring me further out of the money.

To turn or not turn the trade around?  That is the question.  In typical risk-averse behaviour I am itching to Sell-To-Close right at my ACB 437.88 and surrender.  At this moment I feel frozen in time and need the counsel of my Trading Mentor who might simply say "we'll see".

Let me continue to munch on my toasted cinnamon raisin bagel and orange juice and listen to this analyst talk about USDJPY on CNBC.

Stay tuned.

Jeff
(2011-04-07, 01:53 am EST)