2011-04-11th (Mon)

CNBC reported Japanese Economics Minister said the quake impact could be bigger than initial expectations, also the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power complex nuclear crisis level is being considered to be raised from a 5 to 7, and Chernobyl in 1986 was a 7 also.

About twenty hours ago I changed my positions based on new research done over the weekend and currently have the following positions;
Short 150000 USDJPY with ACB of 83.227
Short 1300 contracts Nikkei 225 with ACB of 9557.38

USDJPY is currently at 84.285 (2011-04-11, 21:53 pm EST)
Nikkei 225 is currently at 9567.60 (2011-04-11, 21:53 pm EST)

I am debating closing out both positions but so far multiple time frames of Candles are still in agreement on the downtrend, and this I know can change at a moments notice when the visible hand of intervention arrives to move the Nikkei 225 in one fell swoop.

If there is to be intervention I hope that will come on this Thursday or Friday so as to scare the Shorts away and let them think very clearly over the coming weekend if that is the correct strategy.

CNBC just reported on 2011-04-11, 10:02 pm EST that the nuclear crisis level has been raised to 7 on par with Chernobyl.  Estimate amount of radioactive material 10% of Chernobyl

I think markets may need time to react, or have market participants already anticipated and digested this information?
USDJPY is currently at 84.284 (2011-04-11, 22:03 pm EST)
Nikkei 225 is currently at 9559.30 (2011-04-11, 22:03 pm EST) between sessions.

Today is the day that I have seen the most analysts come on CNBC to downgrade their GDP expectations of Japan, and the main reason is the impact on industry-to-industry and business-to-business negative impact on the supply chain is and will not be clearly know until the formal fiscal quater ends, and in the subsequent quarters to come.

One thing seems to be clear from all the talk is two negative quarters of GDP are expected and that will put Japan into a text book definition of a recession.  Not that it was not already in a 10+ year recession before the tsunami event

Finally I see some reaction in the markets, after 13 minutes;
USDJPY is currently at 84.190 (2011-04-11, 22:16 pm EST)
Nikkei 225 is currently at 9538.20 (2011-04-11, 22:16 pm EST) between sessions.

Live press conference from Japan just started.

Stay Tuned.

Jeff
(2011-04-11, 22:31 pm EST)