2011-04-11th (Mon)

I ended last week with the following positions;

Long 50 contracts Copper May 2011 with ACB of 437.88
Short 100000 USDJPY with ACB of 82.458
Short 1300 contracts Nikkei 225 with ACB of 9557.38

Over the weekend I researched into opportunities and decided to shift my positions around;
Sell-To-Close 50 contracts Copper May 2011 at 450.73 for a profit (2011-04-10, 20:49 pm EST).
Short 50000 USDJPY at 84.766 (2011-04-10, 22:28 pm EST).

This leaves me with my current exposures;
Short 150000 USDJPY with ACB of 83.227
Short 1300 contracts Nikkei 225 with ACB of 9557.38

USDJPY is currently at 84.798 (2011-04-11, 01:33 am EST)
Nikkei 225 is currently at 9729.10 (2011-04-11, 01:23 am EST)

I am not seeing as much obvious intervention in Nikkei 225 through the 1-Min Candles and the index is slowly drifting down on what I assume is liquidation of investment accounts by some retail investors to hoard or redeem cash for spending.

If last Friday's low of 9393 is to be retested and hold then 9400 will be the short-term support that the Government has decided for now to draw the line in the sand.

I am seeking to exit both my Nikkei 225 and USDJPY trades as soon as breakeven or acceptable loss is reached for the volatility has decreased to the point that both instruments are not interesting enough to have meaningful intra-session trades.  I would instead like to focus my available margin on Wheat, WTI, Silver, Gold instead for all four are building up for big gaps.

Wheat May 2011 is currently at 804.88 (2011-04-11, 01:42 am EST) and I placed the following trades;
GTC Sell 10 contracts Wheat May 2011 at 820.00
GTC Sell 10 contracts Wheat May 2011 at 830.00
GTC Sell 10 contracts Wheat May 2011 at 840.00

My read is Resistance for Wheat May 2011 at 850 although I expect it to reverse to a down-trend at 830.  My margin will be stretched beyond 850.

Nikkei 225 is currently at 9718.2 (2011-04-11, 01:54 am EST) and 6 more minutes before closing.  I have appointments in the morning and so will get some rest and not wait to see market close.

USDJPY is currently at 84.767 (2011-04-11, 01:55 am EST) and some may argue I am taking on extra risk by increase my Short, and should have Longed instead even at this level.  I believe USD will weaken against the Yen at a faster rate.

Time will tell, and if there are no Traders on the other side of my trades then I will not be able to make a living, vice-versa.

Stay Tuned.

Jeff
(2011-04-11, 01:57 am EST)